Saturday's 14-fight slate is packed to the brim with opportunities for bettors and DFS players alike to make a profit. We'll cover each fight across three platforms, including several competitors who use cardio as a weapon and a jujitsu ace who just may be able to stop such an onslaught. Our betting line this week comes from the RotoWire MMA betting page and is accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Viktoriia Dudakova ($7,700)
Dudakova might get this done on work rate alone, as the Russian fighter is in perpetual motion during a fight, throwing strikes from range and firing knees from the clinch if she cannot land takedowns. Melissa Gatto will likely have an advantage on the ground, but she is so upright in her stance and methodical in her actions that Dudakova may just run and hide in the first 10 minutes. This looks like an excellent spot for a dog play that can put up a nice score, particularly if Gatto can't get top position on the ground.
Caolan Loughran ($9,400)
Loughran's style seems ready to cut through the bottom half of the bantamweight division. He applies constant pressure and throws big shots while looking for takedowns. While Taylor Lapilus had a distinct reach advantage, Loughran will only be at a two-inch deficit against Angel Pacheco, which should make it much easier for "The Don" to get inside and work his game.
Jacob Malkoun ($9,000)
Very few would likely have predicted Malkoun would be anything close to a must-have DraftKings play after Phil Hawes brutally knocked him out in his UFC debut, but "Mamba's" wrestling and cardio have led to a staggering average of 125 points in his three wins. He has a great chance to get back into the win column against Andre Petroski, who is a good grappler in his own right but has noticeably slowed down in past fights. If Petroski's strength and power make this fight competitive early, Malhoun's gas tank should help him completely dominate it down the stretch.
Virna Jandiroba ($7,500)
Picking against Lupita Godinez is a bit of a risk, as she has been known to put up big scores with the aid of her wrestling, but I just can't trust her against a more talented grappler. If "Loopy" can't reliably get the better of her Brazilian counterpart on the ground, it may be hard for her to notch a victory, as Jandiroba's boxing is constantly improving, and she will be looking to land her own takedowns to control the fight from top position.
Jamall Emmers ($8,900)
A nice straight right hand resulted in a knockout win for Emmers in his last bout, but he will likely get back to wrestling in this one, as Nate Landwehr has beaten better fighters than himself simply by making a mess in which he can outlast them. Emmers may want to establish range with his jab early, but it shouldn't be too long before he tests his opponent's takedown defense.
Nursulton Ruziboev ($9,200)
Ruziboev can use his long frame to strike, but he will actually be at a reach disadvantage against kickboxer Sedriques Dumas, which gives him every reason to show the world why 20 of his 33 professional wins have come by submission. Dumas has looked shaky when trying to keep his feet against less-than-competent wrestlers in the past, making it hard to see this bout ending in something other than a submission from "Black."
Erin Blanchfield ($8,800)
Manon Fiorot has been incredibly difficult to take down in her UFC career, but we may need to operate on the logic that this price is too good to pass up, as Blanchfield has averaged 106.7 DraftKings points in her seven UFC fights. While the takedowns haven't necessarily been there, we have seen the French fighter stuck against the fence by opponents far less skilled than Blanchfield, so it will be hard to trust that "Cold Blooded" won't be able to find her way into the clinch.
Vicente Luque ($8,200)
In his last bout, Luque showed a side of himself that we rarely see in the Octagon, as he took down Rafael dos Anjos eight times, shattering his previous record of four set way back in 2016. It's possible that his knockout loss to Geoff Neal has led to the Brazilian overhauling his tactics. If this is the case, it should continue against Joaquin Buckley, who is athletic and hits incredibly hard. Luque will likely look to stand early, but I think the wrestling will work its way in sooner rather than later, which could lead to a big score at this price.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Anton Turkalj OVER 22.5 significant Strikes, Julio Arce OVER 37.5 Significant Strikes, and Dennis Buzukja UNDER 46.5 Significant Strikes
A knockout loss in his last fight against Tyson Pedro notwithstanding, I see Turkalj as a durable fighter who will keep (sloppily) fighting until the final bell. Ibo Aslan has nothing but KO/TKO finishes in his win column, but the Turkish fighter looked incredibly raw in his bout on the Contender Series, and I'm not sure that he will continue demolishing opponents at the highest level. This fight may end in stoppage at some point, but I like "The Pleasure Man" to extend us past the modest total here.
Grappling attempts and frantic action have characterized Herbert Burns' UFC fights, but Arce's stout 95 percent takedown defense rate, combined with his 28 percent KO/TKO rate, should ensure that this one makes it to the later rounds. I expect Arce to keep Burns at bay with a stinging jab, which could get us halfway home on this total by the end of the first round.
I have always thought of Dennis Buzukja as a (much) lesser version of Featherweight champion Ilia Topuria in that he will march forward, throw big power, and look to land takedowns. Connor Matthews is strong in the clinch and will look for his own takedowns, which makes me think a good deal of this fight will be spent jockeying for position along the fence.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fight Time
Chidi Njokuani UNDER 6.5 Minutes of Fight time, and Bruno Silva over 7.5 Minutes of Fight Time
Njokuani left Bellator with a reputation as a talented but inconsistent fighter who could let time bleed off the clock while waiting for the perfect shot. He hasn't had that opportunity in the UFC, as most of his opponents have been pure action fighters. This will be the case again with Rhys McKee, who has landed over six strikes per minute in the Octagon. This almost certainly means a war in the center of the cage with fighters who are too powerful to leave their opponent standing for too long.
Chris Weidman has been durable as long as he is not suffering a freak occurrence in the Octagon. This is particularly the case early in fights, as four of his six KO/TKO losses have occurred on the other side of this line. "The All-American" has always been a big middleweight, so as long as Bruno Silva doesn't knock him out immediately, he should be able to create grappling exchanges that at least take us deep into the second round.
Bets to Consider
Bill Algeo wins via KO/TKO (+575)
Kyle Nelson has been able to keep the cardio issues we saw early in his UFC career in check during recent bouts, but Algeo will harken back to opponents like Billy Quarantillo, who march forward, grapple, and look to suck the air out of their adversaries. If Nelson can't get his own grappling going, he will be at the mercy of Algeo's cardio, which should lead to our desired result.
For another UFC betting perspective, check out our UFC Atlantic City Best Bets for this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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