This article is part of our Drake's Takes series.
UFC Mexico City Fight Breakdowns & DFS Picks: Drake's Takes
The top UFC betting and DFS plays for this weekend's UFC Mexico City card are up, as well as breakdowns of betting and lineup strategy, plus predictions for the entire event.
2025 Overall Picks: 85-35-1 ~ Dog Picks 19-6-1
Drake's Bet of the Week: Gabriel Miranda +230 ~ 8-1-1 +1015
DFS Lock of the Week: Brandon Moreno - 8-1
Fanduel Captain: Torres
Marquel Mederos (9-1-0) v. Austin Hubbard (16-8-0)
Marquel Mederos - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 69" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 6 finishes in 9 wins
Austin Hubbard - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Hubbard lives as a dog in the UFC, but having lost three of his last four, he will likely get his walking papers soon. Mederos won his debut in a close bout. However, he will have a massive edge on the feet in this fight, and his takedown defense should be good enough to keep it standing. This is a fight I would only play in GPP, as it likely goes to a decision with a low score.
UFC Mexico: Mederos
Jamall Emmers (20-8-0) v. Gabriel Miranda (17-7-0)
Jamall Emmers - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 20 wins
Gabriel Miranda - Height: 5'11" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 17 finishes in 17 wins
DFS Perspective: Emmers has alternated wins and losses since joining the promotion. He sits at 3-4 and was knocked out in his most recent fight. He has shown elite takedown defense and has only been taken down once in the UFC. Miranda only has three UFC fights; he was knocked out twice and submitted his opponent in the other. Neither guy is special, but Emmers tends to score poorly for DFS, while Miranda has a high ceiling, given his penchant for finishing fights. Miranda will have an excellent chance for a submission if this hits the mat and is my preferred pick and play.
UFC Mexico: Miranda
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Rafa Garcia (16-4-0) v. Vinc Pichel (14-4-0)
Rafa Garcia - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 16 wins
Vinc Pichel - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 14 wins
DFS Perspective: At 42, I have little interest in Pichel. He could knock Garcia out early, but he is more likely to get pieced up. Garcia is not the most impressive fighter in the UFC, but he stays active and has the cardio to push for 15 minutes. If he avoids the power, he should win a decision with volume and takedowns. Pichel's takedown defense is dreadful, making Garcia a solid DFS play.
UFC Mexico: Garcia
Loopy Godinez (12-5-0) v. Julia Polastri (13-4-0)
Lupita Godinez - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 61" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 3 finishes in 12 wins
Julia Polastri - Height: 5'2" - Reach: 63" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Polastri earned her first UFC win in her last fight, but she is getting a massive step up in competition, and I do not think she handles it. Godinez sits near the top of the division and has faced some of the best names in said division. I see her having no issue winning this fight, and it is a safe play for cash.
UFC Mexico: Godinez
Christian Rodriguez (12-2-0) v. Melquizael Costa (22-7-0)
Christian Rodriguez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
Melquizael Costa - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 15 finishes in 22 wins
DFS Perspective: This is an intriguing fight, and it would be wise to get both sides in GPP contests. Rodriguez is an underrated fighter. His defense is elite, and his offense continues to surprise. Costa has rattled off back-to-back submission wins, and this would be his biggest win to date if he can pull it off. However, I expect Rodriguez's defense to play a huge part in this fight and for him to get the job done.
UFC Mexico: Rodriguez
Jose Medina (11-4-0) v. Ateba Gautier (6-1-0)
Jose Medina - Height: 6'0" - Reach: 74" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 10 finishes in 11 wins
Ateba Gautier - Height: 6'4" - Reach: 81" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 5 finishes in 6 wins
DFS Perspective: I am still trying to figure out how Medina was given a contract. He lost his Contender Series fight and went on to lose his UFC debut. Gautier is making his UFC debut after demolishing his opponent on the Contender Series and looks like a force to be reckoned with. I do not expect this to go the full 15, and I believe Gautier finishes it early.
UFC Mexico: Gautier
Edgar Chairez (11-6-0) v. CJ Vergara (12-6-1)
Edgar Chairez - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 71" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 11 wins
C.J. Vergara - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 7 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: I do not trust either one of these guys. Chairez is 1-2-1 in the UFC, while Vergara is 3-4. Chairez has not shown or done anything to warrant being as big a favorite as he is, but he is a dangerous finisher, and it would not be surprising to see him record another. However, Vergara is not an easy out. If he avoids takedowns, I can see him having a lot of success on the feet. The dog seems like the safer play.
UFC Mexico: Vergara
Ronaldo Rodriguez (17-2-0) v. Kevin Borjas (9-3-0)
Ronaldo Rodriguez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 65" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 17 wins
Kevin Borjas - Height: 5'5" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 9 wins
DFS Perspective: These guys are headed in opposite directions. Rodriguez is working his way up, while Borjas is working his way out of the promotion. I would give Borjas a slight advantage on the feet if he can keep it there. However, I expect Rodriguez to get this down early and often, running away with it as the fight goes on.
UFC Mexico: Rodriguez
David Martinez (11-1-0) v. Saimon Oliveira (18-5-0)
David Martinez - Height: 5'6" - Reach: 66" – Orthodox
~ High volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 9 finishes in 11 wins
Saimon Oliveira - Height: 5'4" - Reach: 72" – Orthodox
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 18 wins
DFS Perspective: Oliveira has done nothing in his two UFC fights and likely sees his walking papers with another loss or two. He is still a dangerous finisher, so he could surprise if he steps it up a notch. Martinez is making his UFC debut after a solid win on the Contender Series. His technical striking will be on display, and he should walk away with the win.
UFC Mexico: Martinez
Raul Rosas Jr. (10-1-0) v. Vince Morales (16-9-0)
Raul Rosas Jr. - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 67" – Switch
~ Low volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 10 wins
Vince Morales - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 16 wins
DFS Perspective: Rosas is being gifted another fight. Morales returned to the UFC for his second stint in September 2024 and has already lost back-to-back fights. It is time for the UFC to cut him for good. Rosas is as safe as it gets.
UFC Mexico: Rosas Jr.
Kelvin Gastelum (20-9-0) v. Joe Pyfer (13-3-0)
Kelvin Gastelum - Height: 5'9" - Reach: 71" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 11 finishes in 19 wins
Joe Pyfer - Height: 6'2" - Reach: 75" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 12 finishes in 13 wins
DFS Perspective: Gastelum might have had his most impressive UFC win in his last fight, but unless we see that or a better version of him, I do not think he gets past the fast-rising Pyfer. Pyfer moved to 4-1 in the UFC after a knockout win last time out; his only loss came the fight before against a former top-five fighter. I expect Pyfer to level up again and make quick work of Gastelum. He is an excellent play for DFS.
UFC Mexico: Pyfer
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Manuel Torres (15-3-0) v. Drew Dober (27-14-0)
Manuel Torres - Height: 5'10" - Reach: 73" – Switch
~ High volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 14 finishes in 15 wins
Drew Dober - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 70" – Southpaw
~ Moderate volume
~ Minimal wrestling/grappling
~ 20 finishes in 27 wins
DFS Perspective: This should be an absolute banger. Both fighters love to get right into the pocket and brawl, making this a must-have for DFS. Torres has five UFC fights, all of which have ended in the first round. Dober has lost three of his last four and seems to be losing a step, and his chin, at 36. Torres is my preferred play as the faster and younger fighter, but both guys should get some ownership in GPP contests.
UFC Mexico: Torres
Brandon Moreno (22-8-2) v. Steve Erceg (12-3-0)
Brandon Moreno - Height: 5'7" - Reach: 70" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 16 finishes in 22 wins
Steve Erceg - Height: 5'8" - Reach: 68" – Orthodox
~ Moderate volume
~ Plus wrestling/grappling
~ 8 finishes in 12 wins
DFS Perspective: Erceg will have a considerable chance if he can get this fight to the mat, and I would love to go with him, but Moreno is still the top contender in this division, and I do not see anyone aside from the current champ beating him right now. Moreno is solid everywhere, and he has no glaring weakness. Moreno should top this one, and it is always an excellent play for DFS.
UFC Mexico: Moreno
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FANDUEL MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Significant Strikes = 0.6 pts
Takedown = 6 pts
Takedown Defense = 3 pts
Knockdown = 12 pts
Submission Attempt = 5 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win = 100 pts
2nd Round Win = 75 pts
3rd Round Win = 50 pts
4th Round Win = 35 pts
5th Round Win = 25 pts
Decision Win = 20 pts
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider a substantial time.
DRAFTKINGS MMA SCORING
Moves Scoring
Strikes: +0.2 pts
Significant Strikes (SS): +0.2 pts
Control Time: +0.03 pts/Second
Takedown (TD): +5 pts
Reversal/Sweep (REV): +5 pts
Knockdown (KD): +10 pts
Fight Conclusion Bonuses
1st Round Win (1rW+): +90 pts
2nd Round Win (2rW+): +70 pts
3rd Round Win (3rW+): +45 pts
4th Round Win (4rW+): +40 pts
5th Round Win (5rW+): +40 pts
Decision Win (WBD+): +30 pts
Quick Win Bonus: +25 pts
(fight is finished in 60 seconds or less)
Scoring Notes
- Significant Strikes are any distance strikes or clinch/ground strikes that are considered "power strikes" by official scorers.
- A Significant Strike will count as both a strike and a significant strike and be worth 0.4 points in total.
- Control Time is the time spent in the dominant position on the ground or in the clinch. +0.03 points are awarded per second.
- A Knockdown is awarded to a fighter who knocks his/her opponent down due to debilitation for what the official scorers consider an appreciable time.
- A Quick Win Bonus is awarded to the winning fighter if they win in the first round in 60 seconds or less.
