UFC Vegas 105 Preview and Predictions: The MMA Mashup
The UFC returns to the Apex for a 13-fight slate that features intriguing matchups from which we can profit. We will break down each bout across three platforms, including a flyweight looking to bounce back from a rough stretch, and the most powerful bantamweight in the division. Our betting lines this week come from the RotoWire MMA betting page and are accurate to the post date of this article.
Plays to Consider on DraftKings
Gerald Meerschaert ($7,100)
Meershaert has a nice matchup as a big underdog here. "GM3" often needs to work his way into a fight before finding his offense, and Brad Tavares has just five KO/TKOs in 20 MMA victories. In the past, Tavares' takedown defense may have prevented Meerschaert from using his best weapons, but it seems that skill has dissipated with age, as he was recently grounded and controlled for a whopping 6:32 in a loss to Jun Yong Park.
Joanderson Brito ($8,700)
Brito's strength, power, and athleticism make him tough to beat for any featherweight. This could be a herculean task for someone like Pat Sabatini, who is a strong wrestler in his own right but should be a step behind the Brazilian no matter where the fight goes. I expect Brito to put up a big score over three rounds if he cannot find the chin of his opponent early.
Chang Ho Lee ($8,400)
Lee's style of wearing on fighters in the clinch while punishing them with body work should ensure that he sprints through the lower half of this division. Cortavious Romious can do some of everything in the cage, but his game feels disconnected, whereas Lee never stops chaining attacks together. Look for Lee to put up another big score as he pours on offense for three rounds.
Torrez Finney ($9,000)
Robert Valentin's style of throwing kicks and trying to create scrambles on the ground didn't impress me when he was a favorite in his UFC debut, and I certainly don't expect it to play well against a fighter like Finney. "The Punisher" is a powerful, active wrestler who should be able to take Valentin down at will. Unless he gets caught in a sub from guard, expect a strong performance from Finney here.
Pedro Falcao ($7,400)
Falcao will apply enough pressure to make Victor Henry uncomfortable while he pumps out strikes and looks for takedowns. Now 37 years old, it's worth wondering if Henry can still keep pace with fighters in a lighter weight class. Falcao may not have much depth to his game, but he will be active enough to overwhelm Henry, who is accustomed to taking the fight to his opponents.
Talita Alencar ($8,200)
It will be difficult to find a better matchup for Alencar, who will often be at a significant height or reach disadvantage. She only gives up one inch in each column to Vanessa Demopoulos, who holds a takedown defense rate of just 27 percent in nine UFC fights. This should allow the BJJ champion to get on the inside and work her game to perfection.
Try out these recommended fighters with different lineup combinations on our DraftKings UFC Lineup Optimizer.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Significant Strikes
Daniel Frunza OVER 50.5 Significant Strikes, Loma Lookboonmee OVER 59.5 Significant Strikes, and Daniel Santos OVER 60.5 Significant Strikes
Rhys McKee hasn't had much success in the Octagon, but "Skellator" has been hard to hurt, with his one stoppage loss since 2017 coming via ground strikes. Frunza should look to close down the space and strike with his opponent, which will result in us getting comfortably over the line.
Lookboonmee's significant strike totals have suffered as she has incorporated more wrestling into her attack, but Istela Nunes is physically strong and open to be hit, which will likely compel Loma to get back to her roots here. Neither of these women are afraid to stand in the center and strike, which could lead to a big total for both.
Davey Grant forces all of his opponents into wars. Santos should be equal to this task, using his athleticism and sharp boxing to find his shots. Grant's flatfooted stance could leave him susceptible to takedowns, but I expect the two men to strike for the majority of this contest, as "Dangerous" has always done well to scramble back to his feet.
Interested in backing this or other selections on sites like PrizePicks? Check out the Best MMA Picks & Prop Bets by comparing lines to our projections using the RotoWire Picks & Props tool.
Plays to Consider on Prize Picks - Fantasy Score
Kennedy Nzechukwu Scores OVER 98.5 Fantasy Points and Dione Barbosa Scores UNDER 95.5 Fantasy Points
The difference in speed and athleticism will be the story here, as Martin Buday has the kind of grinding game that will only work if the opponent allows him to set the pace. I expect Nzechukwu to be aggressive out of the gate, which should help him find a knockout before Buday is able to work this fight into a clinch.
Barbosa and Diana Belbita may be at different ends of the hype spectrum, but I'm not sure what "The Witch" has done to garner such a big total here. While she does throw hard, she tends to let her opponents lead exchanges, which should see "The Warrior Princess" on the front foot often. It should also be noted that Barbosa is much more of a clinch wrestler, which will limit her opportunities to find herself in top position.
Bets to Consider
Josh Emmett Wins via KO/TKO (+500)
Power has become a hallmark of Emmet's run at bantamweight, but just as important is how quickly he is able to crash the pocket to land those strikes. For all his dynamic movement, Lerone Murphy can get caught watching after he throws. This has resulted in "The Miracle" eating hard counter shots from fighters like Dan Ige and Edson Barboza. Murphy will likely have early success as he puts his skills to use, but I can't trust him to stay safe over five rounds.
Ode Osbourne (+215)
I was surprised to see Osbourne as a sizeable underdog against debutante Luis Gurule. While he is riding a three-fight skid, "The Jamaican Sensation" fought well in his last bout against Ronaldo Rodriguez and should be able to use his length and wrestling against an opponent who is at his best when he can throw volume in the pocket.
For more UFC wagers to consider, check out our MMA Bets Bets for UFC Vegas 105 this weekend. For the latest in UFC odds, head to the RotoWire MMA Betting section.
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