Daytona 500 Preview: The Great American Race

This article is part of our Weekly Preview series.

We're set to kick off another season of NASCAR racing, and to get things started we head to the historic Daytona International Speedway for the season-opener. The Daytona 500, also known as the Great American Race, kicks off each NASCAR Cup Series season and is by far the most prestigious event in the sport. The Daytona 500 is on par with the NFL's Super Bowl or Major League Baseball's World Series. It's unique in the fact that it opens the racing season rather than ends it. No other major sport can make that same claim. All eyes in the motorsports world will be focused on Daytona this weekend, because the winner of this race is not only making history, but he's also setting the pace for the season to come. 

If there's one thing that we can count on with Speedweeks at Daytona, it's a lot of practice laps. With all the practice sessions and qualifying races, the drivers really get to know what they can and can't do with their cars over the week of events. Once the drivers get familiar with the aero package and handling of their cars, we should see lots of three-wide, big pack racing in this season's Daytona 500. When we get down to the final 10 laps and crunch time, it will be interesting to see how the drivers mix it up looking for that perfect drafting partner. Some pushing and bump drafting are not out of the question, so we'll see some precariously close drafting, side-drafting and quickly shifting lanes of racing as drivers look for any open pavement they can find to get to the front. We'll see the pack racing, and unsettled cars that rattles nerves for 475 miles, and then a 25-mile wild sprint to the finish which will have the top contenders climbing over one-another to get to the checkered flag first. As we saw in last season's Daytona 500 finish with William Byron and Alex Bowman mixing it up, it can make for some pretty big fireworks coming to the checkered flag on that last lap. 

This will be our first points race since the teams loaded up at Phoenix last November, and crowned Joey Logano the NASCAR Cup Series champion. While superspeedway racing isn't by itself completely indicative of what we can expect for the entire season, it does give us a good preview of who has the horsepower, handling and teamwork flowing right out of the gate. We expect most of the teams that ended the 2024 season on a high note to continue their momentum with the short off-season and right into the Daytona 500. The teams of Hendrick Motorsports would be a good example of this point.  William Byron and Kyle Larson put together good streaks of consistency as the season closed last November. Those two drivers combined for two victories, 10 Top-5 and 13 Top-10 finishes over the last 10 races of last season. Not to be outdone, the duo of Joe Gibbs Racing (Denny Hamlin and Christopher Bell), grabbed nine Top-5 and 14 Top-10 finishes over those final 10 events. We expect those teams to come running out of the blocks this February. In the opposite sense, some of the drivers that struggled through the Chase for the Cup last fall have a lot to prove during Speedweeks. Drivers like Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski and Kyle Busch had better hit the ground running at Daytona, or their season-ending slumps are likely to continue well into 2025.

Before we dive into the driver picks, let's take a minute to look at the loop statistics for Daytona International Speedway. The loop stats are the numbers from NASCAR's electronic timing and scoring from past races. They can track virtually any statistic possible in auto racing. For the purpose of our examination, we've chosen to look at average finish, quality passes, fastest laps, laps led, laps inside the Top 15 and the driver rating derived from those statistics. These stats are pretty indicative of the best performing drivers at a particular oval. From these and other numbers NASCAR derives the driver rating. From an overall performance standpoint, it's a great measure of track specific performance. Here are the loop stats for the last 40 races at Daytona International Speedway.

In this race one year ago, we crowned a first-time Daytona 500 winner, William Byron. There were an exciting 41 lead changes among 20 different drivers. Those figures are pretty consistent when compared to the previous three Daytona 500's. We would attribute that to the current car and current aerodynamic package. Teams are pretty comfortable with the current car and it shows in these superspeedway races. There were only three caution flags for accidents/debris which is a bit down from recent Daytona races. When the dust settled, we saw Byron hold off a trio of challengers by the narrowest of margins as the front of the field was battling fender-to-fender on the last lap. The No. 24 Chevrolet would be running first-place when a big wreck would break out just behind the leaders, bringing out the caution. Byron would take the checkered flag under caution and claim his first Daytona 500 crown.  

It would be Byron's 11th-career win, second at Daytona, but his first Daytona 500 victory. It capped one of the most thrilling races of the entire season. How can we top that in 2025? Considering that NASCAR returned to Daytona last August and held a race that was 90 miles shorter, but had an impressive 40 total lead changes, we could be poised for major thrills. It might be difficult to replicate that dramatic finish from last season's Daytona 500, but the entertainment factor should be off the charts. As the above electronic scoring statistics show, we have a handful of drivers from many different stables that have a nose for the front at the Daytona oval. We'll outline the usual suspects at this oval as well as a few drivers who may surprise on Sunday and give you the edge that you need to win your fantasy racing leagues for the season-opening Daytona 500.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Ryan Blaney – Although Blaney had a tough season in 2024 on the superspeedways, don't underestimate his ability in this form of racing. The Penske Racing star grabbed a win, a runner-up finish and three Top 10's on the ovals of Daytona and Talladega in 2023. Blaney showed that speed last season but his luck finishing these races was terrible. We expect a return to more expected form this season for the No. 12 Ford team. Blaney is a one-time Daytona winner, and he's finished runner-up in the Daytona 500 twice in his career. However, he's never won the Great American Race. That could change in 2025. Blaney has crashed out of his last three Daytona starts, so that luck has to change at some point. He's a major threat to win Sunday in the season-opener.      

William Byron – The 2024 Daytona 500 winner returns to the scene to defend his race win of one season ago. Byron is also a two-time winner at the historic Florida oval with his fall victory here in 2020. Now with two Daytona wins in his resume, the driver of the No. 24 Chevrolet has elevated his superspeedway racing game over the past two seasons. Byron has one win, one runner-up finish, three Top-5 and six Top-10 finishes in his last seven-combined starts between Daytona and Talladega. That consistency and high conversion rate has led to a dazzling 11.1 average finish over the last two campaigns on these high-risk ovals. The Hendrick Motorsports star's last appearance on a superspeedway oval netted a strong third-place finish in last fall's Talladega race. Byron carries that momentum into Daytona this weekend.        

Joey Logano – Much like his teammate, Ryan Blaney, Logano is coming off a tough-luck campaign on the superspeedway ovals. The veteran driver would crash out of three of his four starts on the big ovals last season. However, the Penske Racing star would show dazzling speed and great qualifying prowess in those races. Logano's average start of 4.3 was razor sharp and he led a staggering 120-combined laps between Daytona and Talladega. We expect an improvement in luck and an ability to finish these races in 2025. Logano is a one-time Daytona 500 winner and he finished runner-up in the Great American Race in 2023. His 25-percent Top-5 rate at Daytona across 32 starts is a pretty strong figure. Logano is one of the elites in this style of racing and should not be overlooked.  

Chris Buescher – The driver of the No. 17 Ford Mustang has been building a strong Daytona resume over the past couple seasons. He won the fall race at the track in 2023 for his first Daytona win and now he's looking for his first Daytona 500 victory. The Roush Fenway Keselowski Racing veteran has led close to 50 laps in his last four Daytona starts and he's now boosted his career Top-5 rate here to a strong 28-percent. Buescher led close to 30-combined laps on the superspeedways last season and he owns a strong 50-percent Top-10 rate on the tracks of Daytona and Talladega the past two seasons. While he doesn't have the extensive history of some other drivers at this track and in this style of racing, Buescher has proven to be a very competitive driver in superspeedway tilts the last few seasons.   

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Chase Elliott – Coming off the pre-season victory in the Clash, Elliott comes to Daytona with good momentum. The 2025 campaign has started off on the right foot and it's time to strike while the iron is hot. The driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet has never won at Daytona International Speedway, but he does own three pole positions and two runner-up finishes at the historic oval. While Elliott's 28-percent Top-10 rate here leaves some to be desired, he has shown the ability to lead laps and race among the leaders in these races. His last Top 5 at the oval came in 2023 and he's led nearing 200 laps for his career at Daytona. The last two seasons have been a bit up-and-down in terms of superspeedway performance, but when we consider Elliott's two Talladega victories, we're reminded that he's a performer in this style of racing.

Alex Bowman – Bowman was in the running to win last season's Daytona 500 and that's a difficult bit of information to look past. The veteran driver of the No. 48 Chevrolet, in fact, has cracked the Top 10 in three of his last four Daytona starts. That has raised his career Top-10 percentage here to a more robust 35-percent and his average finish at Daytona to a reasonable 15.2. We don't consider Bowman a major threat to win. He's never won on a superspeedway track. However, he always seems to bring good speed and qualify well at both Daytona and Talladega. He has three Daytona poles and seven front row starts at this track during his career. Bowman's 50-percent Top-10 rate on superspeedway ovals the past two seasons speaks volumes of his ability.

Brad Keselowski – Keselowski is a one-time Daytona winner and six-time Talladega winner. He's one of the most prolific superspeedway performers of the past 15 years. As his age has advanced, the owner/driver has maintained that high level of performance. In just the past two seasons alone Keselowski has nabbed three runner-up finishes and five Top 10's on the superspeedway tracks. While his Talladega excellence has outweighed his Daytona achievements by a bit, he's still a top performer at the Florida oval. He finished runner-up at Daytona as recently as 2023. Keselowski has forged Top 10's in three of his last six Daytona starts which is well above his career rate of 26-percent. He should be a steady performer in the Daytona 500.  

Christopher Bell – Over the past couple seasons Bell has reversed some of the early-career struggles he's had on superspeedway tracks. Three of his last four Daytona starts alone have each been third-place finishes. A brilliant level of performance. It's helped boost his Top-10 rate at Daytona to a much better 30-percent. Bell grabbed Top 10's in three of his four superspeedway starts last season. In fact, the Joe Gibbs Racing star has cracked the Top 10 at a very elite 63-percent rate over the past two seasons. Despite no superspeedway wins in his Cup Series resume, Bell is a real and credible threat in this 500-mile season-opener in Daytona.        

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at Daytona & solid upside

Kyle Busch – Perhaps the biggest risk/reward driver in the field this weekend is Busch in the No. 8 Chevrolet. He's a one-time winner at Daytona, but he's never won the Daytona 500. Busch's history at this oval is an uneven affair of brilliant finishes, and devastating DNF's. However, speed has never been an issue. Two seasons ago Busch grabbed an impressive spring victory at Talladega and nabbed a strong runner-up finish in last season's late-fall race at Daytona. The Richard Childress Racing veteran is a three-time superspeedway winner and he's cracked the Top 10 at Daytona four times in his last six starts at the track. He's a very intriguing fantasy racing prospect for this weekend's season-opener.    

Chase Briscoe – Briscoe makes the move to Joe Gibbs Racing this season and he gets a fantasy upgrade in terms of the Daytona 500 this weekend. The journeyman driver will be piloting the strong No. 19 Toyota in the season-opener and looking for a career-best finish in the Great American Race. Briscoe has shown some superspeedway racing ability over his past two seasons at the former Stewart Haas Racing. He grabbed a Daytona pole position in the fall of 2023, grabbed one Top-5, two Top-10 and five Top-15 finishes between Daytona and Talladega over the past two seasons. With close to 80 laps led during that span, Briscoe has shown remarkable ability. His start for JGR this Sunday will likely be in the best car he's ever driven at Daytona.

Denny Hamlin – He's been a tough-luck driver over the past two seasons on the big ovals, but you cannot deny his career-long exploits in this form of stock car racing. You will not find a more decorated or excellent superspeedway driver in the field. Hamlin is a three-time Daytona 500 winner and he's won twice at the similar oval in Talladega. He's also a three-time winner of the Daytona Duels. The driver of the No. 11 Toyota is one of the more experienced and knowledgeable drivers in the field in superspeedway racing. While Hamlin's recent performances on the ovals of Daytona and Talladega have fallen short of expectations, we have to keep this driver and team on the fantasy radar screen due to their history.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace had no trouble at all "closing" these races on big ovals last year. He grabbed one Top-5 and three Top-10 finishes in the four events between Daytona and Talladega. Wallace just seems to have a nose for the front in these superspeedway events. The career 11.9 average finish at Daytona International Speedway speaks volumes of this fact. The 23XI Racing driver's 2021 victory at Talladega underscores how dangerous Wallace can be in this form of stock car racing, and his three runner-up and five Top-5 finishes at Daytona are an incredible statement on his abilities in superspeedway racing. The driver of the No. 23 Toyota is a good sleeper candidate for Sunday's Daytona 500.

Ricky Stenhouse Jr. – The 2023 Daytona 500 winner is also the winner of our last superspeedway event at Talladega last fall. Stenhouse owns four-career Cup Series victories, and all four of them have come on the tracks of Daytona and Talladega. Two of them at Daytona alone. If Stenhouse can avoid the multi-car crashes and last to the end, he's capable of big things. His four-career Daytona Top-10 finishes are not overly impressive, but his 150 laps led at this track tell the untold story. This driver and team do a lot of racing up front in these Daytona events. Stenhouse is going to find his way into the occasional multi-car accident at this track, which is almost certain. However, if the driver of the No. 47 Chevrolet is racing among the leaders in the closing laps, he's quite a dangerous competitor to be matched against.   

Erik Jones – The deep sleeper of the week is Jones and his No. 43 Legacy Motor Club entry. The veteran driver is sneaky good on the superspeedway tracks. Jones nabbed a Top-5 finish in our last event at Talladega last fall and he grabbed an impressive eighth-place finish in last season's Daytona 500. The journeyman driver is a one-time winner at Daytona (2018) and he posts a reasonable 25-percent Top-10 rate at the historic oval. Jones has also collected four Top-10 finishes in his last seven Duel qualifying races. It's clear that he understands the aspects of the draft and drafting partners. Jones also has an eye-opening 50-percent Top-10 rate at the big oval in Talladega. Clearly, he is a driver to not be underestimated in this style of racing.             

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Larson – Larson may be one of the best drivers in the sport, but superspeedway racing really never has been his cup of tea. The Hendrick Motorsports star has just one Top 10 in his last two seasons of racing at both Daytona and Talladega and while he's mostly avoided the big crashes, he just doesn't get the best finishes. That's been the pattern over his career at Daytona as well. Larson hasn't posted a Top 10 at this track since 2021 and has just five total in 21 starts (24-percent). The career average finish stands at 22.0 and his nine DNF's at Daytona nearly double the number of Top 10's he owns here. This is a good week to keep Larson on the fantasy racing bench and better deploy him at a short track or intermediate oval.

Austin Cindric – The 2022 Daytona 500 winner is a deceptive fantasy play this week. Since his win in the big race, Cindric has just one Top 10 in his last five Daytona starts. The cold streak has weighed his average finish down to 17.0 at the historic Florida oval. The Penske Racing driver has been cold on both superspeedway tracks the past couple seasons. Cindric has just one Top 10 in his last eight starts between Daytona and Talladega with an inflated 23.3 average finish. The driver of the No. 2 Ford has led laps during this span (88 total) but being able to close on the good qualifying efforts and laps led has proven difficult. His average starting position over this same span is a sterling 7.8 so don't let a good qualifying effort dupe you into fantasy expectations for Cindric.

Ty Gibbs – While we're high on Gibbs in terms of season-long performance, the first weekend may be one to bench him in terms of weekly lineup and salary cap leagues. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has had a tough time on the superspeedways since elevating to NASCAR's top division. Gibbs has logged just one Top 10 in his last eight superspeedway starts and has a disappointing 22.8 average finish across that span. In five-career starts at Daytona International Speedway, the driver of the No. 54 Toyota has just one Top-10 finish (20-percent). While he's only crashed out of one Daytona start, Gibbs has struggled to remain relevant and in touch with the leaders. He does not have a single lap led across his five Daytona events.  

Tyler Reddick – Despite stealing his first-career win on a superspeedway last season in the spring Talladega race, we're going to recommend avoiding Reddick and the No. 45 Toyota team. Aside from the win, he had three other starts on the big ovals last season that failed to crack the Top 20. That's been the pattern for this young driver over his Cup Series career. 11 Total starts at Daytona have accumulated just two Top-10 finishes vs. seven DNF's. He crashed out of both Daytona events last year and that's despite a strong qualifying effort (third-place) in last season's Daytona 500. This form of racing appears to be Reddick's lone weakness as he's a dependable start from short tracks to road courses and everything in-between. Daytona is a week to bench Reddick.