This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
AAA 400
Location: Dover, Del.
Course: Dover International Speedway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 400
Race Preview
Dover International Speedway has not earned the nickname of the "Monster Mile" for being easy on drivers and their cars. The concrete surface is one of the most unforgiving configurations in the series. To be successful this week drivers must race the track instead of the competition. Dover's concrete abuses tires and most teams will elect four-tire pit stops at every opportunity. Passing is generally done at the bottom of the track, but drivers must be careful not to dip onto the apron. Any miscalculation to that degree could shoot a car right up the track and into the wall. The 1.0-mile track also typically spreads the field out, which is why it is difficult to win after starting deeper in the field. That stretched field could produce another fuel-mileage battle this week.
Key Stats at Dover International Speedway
• Races: 91
• Winners from pole: 13
• Winners from top-5 starters: 53
• Winners from top-10 starters: 71
• Winners from 21st or lower starters: 5
• Fastest race: 132.719 mph
Last 10 Dover Winners
2015 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2014 fall - Jeff Gordon
2014 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2013 fall - Jimmie Johnson
2013 spring - Tony Stewart
2012 fall - Brad Keselowski
2012 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2011 fall - Kurt Busch
2011 spring - Matt Kenseth
2010 fall - Jimmie Johnson
Jimmie Johnson is the undisputed king of Dover. He scored his record-extending 10th victory at the track earlier this season. He has 27 Sprint Cup starts at the oval, and earned an average finish of 7.9. His teammate Jeff Gordon has an impressive five wins at the oval. Martin Truex Jr. and Denny Hamlin shared the lead for the majority of the spring race, and Kevin Harvick also had one of his many top finishes in second place. The defending champion has his work cut out for him this week, though. Two poor results in the first two rounds of the Chase mean that he needs to win this week to continue his title defense.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Jimmie Johnson - $11,200
Kevin Harvick - $11,000
Kyle Busch - $10,200
Matt Kenseth - $10,100
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Brad Keselowski - $9,900
Denny Hamlin - $9,800
Carl Edwards - $9,500
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,300
Kurt Busch - $9,000
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - $8,500
Jeff Gordon - $8,400
Kyle Larson - $8,100
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Ryan Newman - $6,900
Clint Bowyer - $6,900
Tony Stewart - $6,700
Greg Biffle - $6,700
Brett Moffitt - $6,000
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Cash Game Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Jimmie Johnson - $11,200
Kyle Busch - $10,200
Dale Earnhardt Jr. - $8,500
Ryan Newman - $6,900
Greg Biffle - $6,700
Aric Almirola - $6,100
Jimmie Johnson is the top option when it comes to races at Dover. The 10-time winner has outscored all other drivers at the track in the last five races by 20 points. Busch is still a good choice at Dover despite being backed into a corner in the Chase. He led 268 laps in the last five Dover races and has two top-5s and three top-10s as well. Last week was a tough one for Earnhardt, but the team has the speed and consistency to bounce back this week. He has three top-10s in his last five Dover outings. Newman may be back to last season's level after consecutive top-10 finishes in the first two Chase races, and Biffle had a stunning result last week in New Hampshire to take his third top-5 of the season. Last week was one to forget for Almirola, but he is a good value for lineups this week after finishing fifth at Dover earlier this season.
Higher-Risk Tournament Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kevin Harvick - $11,000
Joey Logano - $9,600
Jeff Gordon - $8,400
Austin Dillon - $7,200
Clint Bowyer - $6,900
Tony Stewart - $6,700
This lineup could be considered higher risk because it doesn't include Johnson, who has scored the most points at Dover in this format and is also the best value from a price per point perspective. Instead, you get Harvick who must go for a win to advance in the Chase at a track he finished second at earlier this year. The Penske Racing Ford of Joey Logano is a nice option with four top-10 Dover finishes in his last five races there. Gordon is still searching for a bit of luck, but scored a top-10 in New Hampshire last week and has four top-10s and a win in his last five Dover races. Austin Dillon continues to show increasing promise, while Clint Bowyer finished in the top-10 in all of the last five races at this oval. Tony Stewart is scratching his way back to the front of the field and is a three-time Dover winner.
