This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Drydene 311 Double-Header
Location: Dover, Del.
Course: Dover International Speedway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 311
Race Preview
Chase Elliott snagged his second victory of the season with another dominant road course performance last week at Daytona International Speedway. This week, he faces back-to-back races at Dover International Speedway, where he won in 2018. Martin Truex Jr. and Kyle Larson won the two visits to the track last year. This week could be a big one for the playoff field, too. Two of the three remaining regular-season races will be done after this weekend, and no driver will want their playoff future in question with the Daytona supserpeedway left. That dynamic currently pits Hendrick Motorsports teammates William Byron and Jimmie Johnson at odds with the two separated on the playoff bubble by 25 points. A new 2020 winner this week would even further jumble that picture.
Key Stats at Dover International Speedway
- Number of races: 100
- Winners from pole: 13
- Winners from top-5 starters: 57
- Winners from top-10 starters: 77
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 5
- Fastest race: 135.734 mph
Previous 10 Dover Winners
2019 fall - Kyle Larson
2019 spring - Martin Truex Jr.
2018 fall - Chase Elliott
2018 spring - Kevin Harvick
2017 fall - Kyle Busch
2017 spring - Jimmie Johnson
2016 fall - Martin Truex Jr.
2016 spring - Matt Kenseth
2015 fall - Kevin Harvick
2015 spring - Jimmie Johnson
Dover is a 1.0-mile high-banked oval paved in concrete. The circuit has a reputation for being a quick and punishing course where track position plays a heavy role. No drivers have won this race after starting outside of the top 15 since Tony Stewart won from 22nd in 2013. The track has been one of Jimmie Johnson's best, too. His 11 track victories are made even more impressive when fantasy players recognize that the next closest drivers this weekend have just three. Tire wear and pit strategy will be the two levers teams pull to set up their chances for victory this weekend. Fresh tires will allow someone to run faster and move through the field, but track position remains king and being near the front on restarts can negate that fresh-tire advantage. Most of the race favorites have starting spots inside the top 15 and that is where fantasy players will want to focus their lineup searches.
The double-header weekends thus far have proven that the Saturday races are a strong representation of what to expect on Sunday, too. For that reason I will return to offering lower- and higher-risk lineups versus the Saturday and Sunday picks. Fantasy players run a high likelihood of finding success on Sunday by going with those drivers that run well first on Saturday.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kevin Harvick - $11,400 Saturday, $11,700 Sunday
Martin Truex Jr. - $11,000 Saturday, $11,300 Sunday
Denny Hamlin - $10,200 Saturday, $10,600 Sunday
Chase Elliott - $10,000 Saturday, $10,900 Sunday
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Brad Keselowski - $9,700 Saturday, $10,400 Sunday
Joey Logano - $9,400 Saturday, $9,600 Sunday
Erik Jones - $9,200 Saturday, $8,800 Sunday
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Austin Dillon - $8,700 Saturday, $7,200 Sunday
Alex Bowman - $8,500 Saturday, $8,600 Sunday
William Byron - $8,200 Saturday, $7,700 Sunday
Jimmie Johnson - $8,000 Saturday, $9,200 Sunday
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Clint Bowyer - $7,800 Saturday, $8,200 Sunday
Christopher Bell - $7,600 Saturday, $6,900 Sunday
Matt DiBenedetto - $7,400 Saturday, $6,800 Sunday
Tyler Reddick - $7,100 Saturday, $6,500 Sunday
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $6,200 Saturday, $7,300 Sunday
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Busch - $10,600 Saturday, $10,000 Sunday
Denny Hamlin - $10,200 Saturday, $10,600 Sunday
Jimmie Johnson - $8,000 Saturday, $9,200 Sunday
Christopher Bell - $7,600 Saturday, $6,900 Sunday
Cole Custer - $7,300 Saturday, $7,100 Sunday
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $6,200 Saturday, $7,300 Sunday
Kyle Busch (DK $10,600, FD $11,200) has a slight premium on his salary for Saturday due to his 22nd-place starting position. Fantasy players should expect the three-time Dover winner to move up from that position by the finish. A better starting position on Sunday may give him a better shot at the win on Sunday, however. Teammate Denny Hamlin (DK $10,200, FD $13,000) should be a threat to win both days. He starts on the front row Saturday and led 218 laps from pole at the track last fall. A win this week would be his first at Dover. Jimmie Johnson (DK $8,000, FD $9,400) is no stranger to Dover's Victory Lane. His 11 wins is by far the best in the field, and the competitiveness he has had in recent weeks just needs a bit of luck to go his direction to give him a top finish on either day. Christopher Bell (DK $7,600, FD $8,200) won two of his four Xfinity series starts at this track, while fellow rookie Cole Custer (DK $7,300, FD $8,400) won last fall's Xfinity Dover race. Then, Ricky Stenhouse Jr. (DK $6,200, FD $6,000) could be a bargain for fantasy players. He has two Dover top-10 finishes from 15 career starts and finished 16th last fall.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Martin Truex Jr. - $11,000 Saturday, $11,300 Sunday
Alex Bowman - $8,500 Saturday, $8,600 Sunday
William Byron - $8,200 Saturday, $7,700 Sunday
Clint Bowyer - $7,800 Saturday, $8,200 Sunday
Matt DiBenedetto - $7,400 Saturday, $6,800 Sunday
Tyler Reddick - $7,100 Saturday, $6,500 Sunday
Martin Truex Jr. (DK $11,000, FD $13,500) should be one of the favorites to win this weekend. He will start Saturday's race third and finished first and second at the track last season with 147 total laps led. Alex Bowman (DK $8,500, FD $10,000) finished second and third in the two Dover races last season. His win at Fontana earlier this season has him in the playoffs and a top five this weekend would be his first since racing resumed in May at Darlington. William Byron (DK $8,200, FD $8,900) will have one eye on teammate Jimmie Johnson as the pair battle for the final playoff position. Byron will start eighth Saturday and finished in that spot at the track last spring after starting second. Clint Bowyer (DK $7,800, FD $9,700) has amassed 16 top-10 finishes from 28 Dover starts. His sixth-place finish last week helped to give him a second-row start for Saturday, too. Fantasy owners should definitely consider Matt DiBenedetto (DK $7,400, FD $8,500) after his recent up-tick in performances. He has two top-10s from the last four races and finished seventh last fall at this track. Finishing out the higher-risk lineup is rookie Tyler Reddick (DK $7,100, FD $7,800), who finished in the top five twice in his four Xfinity Dover starts.
