This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Ruoff Mortgage 500
Location: Avondale, Ariz.
Course: Phoenix Raceway
Format: 1.0-mile oval
Laps: 312
Race Preview
Alex Bowman overcame teammate Kyle Larson in an overtime finish to win his first race of the season last week at Las Vegas. The win made it two victories in a row for the Hendrick Motorsports organization, which now has two of its drivers firmly in the playoff picture for the 2022 NASCAR Cup Series championship. This week the series heads to its final stop of its trip out West at Phoenix Raceway where Larson went to Victory Lane last fall to land his first series title. Joe Gibbs Racing looks like the closest competitor to the Hendrick cars in these early events, and it was Martin Truex Jr. who won this race last season. Gibbs drivers have won four of the last seven Phoenix races, which could make this week their best chance to catch the Hendrick Chevrolets before the series returns East and enters the heart of the 2022 schedule.
Key Stats at Phoenix Raceway
- Number of races: 51
- Winners from pole: 6
- Winners from top-5 starters: 20
- Winners from top-10 starters: 28
- Winners from 21st or lower starters: 4
- Fastest race: 118.132 mph
Previous 10 Phoenix Winners
2021 fall - Kyle Larson
2021 spring - Martin Truex Jr.
2020 fall - Chase Elliott
2020 spring - Joey Logano
2019 fall - Denny Hamlin
2019 spring - Kyle Busch
2018 fall - Kyle Busch
2018 spring - Kevin Harvick
2017 fall - Matt Kenseth
2017 spring - Ryan Newman
Phoenix Raceway will present yet another new challenge for the teams as they work to come up to speed with the new car. The new car was tested at this track, but teams will still have work to do to find the perfect settings and the right adjustments as conditions change. Phoenix is a flat, 1.0-mile oval that is unlike any other circuit on the calendar. Each turn is different, and the teams are forced to compromise their settings in order to find the optimal lap time. Phoenix's wide turns and lack of a yellow-line rule enable a wide variety of lines through the turns, and passing isn't as difficult as at other circuits. However, track position is one of the most important things at Phoenix. Getting off of pit road first to be at the front of the pack will be the best way to get out front and stay out front. Two-tire stops and differing pit strategy could help teams accomplish that throughout Sunday's 500-lap race.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Larson - $11,800
Kyle Busch - $11,200
Chase Elliott - $10,700
Denny Hamlin - $10,100
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,800
Ryan Blaney - $9,600
William Byron - $9,400
Kevin Harvick - $9,100
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Kurt Busch - $8,900
Tyler Reddick - $8,500
Christopher Bell - $8,300
Ross Chastain - $8,100
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Aric Almirola - $7,900
AJ Allmendinger - $7,200
Daniel Suarez - $6,600
Harrison Burton - $5,700
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Denny Hamlin - $10,100
Martin Truex Jr. - $9,800
Tyler Reddick - $8,500
Aric Almirola - $7,900
AJ Allmendinger - $7,200
Bubba Wallace - $6,400
Joe Gibbs Racing will want to strike back at Hendrick this week in Phoenix, and Denny Hamlin (DK $10,100, FD $11,500) could lead that charge. He has two Phoenix wins and has finished in the top five in five of the last six races there. His teammate, Martin Truex Jr. (DK $9,800, FD $13,500), leads the points among nonwinners and finished eighth last week at Las Vegas. He is also the defending winner of this race and has 14 top-10s from 32 Phoenix starts. Tyler Reddick's (DK $8,500, FD $9,500) season has started brightly with nearly 100 laps led at California and a seventh-place finish last week at Las Vegas. His early-season pace suggests he could become a first-time series winner this season. Another driver off to a great start is Aric Almirola (DK $7,900, FD $8,500), who is in his final season of full-time competition. He has three top-10s from the first three races and finished sixth at Phoenix last fall. He has two top-fives and seven top-10s at the track, nearly all of which have come in the last nine races there. This week could be an uphill battle for Bubba Wallace (DK $6,400, FD $4,000), but that shouldn't scare fantasy players away completely. He has shown the capability of scoring personal best finishes at each track so far this season, and phoenix should not be any different. Getting to the finish without trouble or mistakes could give him his best finish at the track since coming home 10th there in 2018.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kyle Busch - $11,200
Ryan Blaney - $9,600
William Byron - $9,400
Erik Jones - $7,400
Daniel Suarez - $6,600
Harrison Burton - $5,700
A fourth-place finish last week was Kyle Busch's (DK $11,200, FD $13,000) first top-five of the year. He started 37th after crashing in practice but still led 49 laps. With a better starting spot and a clean race weekend, he could be in position to grab another Phoenix win. He has three already and had an impressive span of 10 straight top-10 finishes at the track from 2015 to 2020. Even more impressive is that nine of those 10 were top-fives, too. Ryan Blaney (DK $9,600, FD $11,000) didn't get the chance to race for the finish last week after Brad Keselowski spun and collected him. His team arguably lost him the race the week before that, too. Could this be the week he gets everything right? He was fourth at the track last fall and has five Phoenix top-10s from the last six. William Byron (DK $9,400, FD $10,500) is one of the two remaining Hendrick drivers without a win this season. He is last among his teammates in the standings but rebounded last week with a top-five. He has four top-10s from eight Phoenix starts including eighth in this race last season. Last week was a bust for Erik Jones (DK $7,400, FD $6,500) after he brought out the caution late in the running. He finished third at Fontana the week before and remains in the playoff positions, though. This could be another week where Jones and his Petty GMS Motorsports team can punch above their weight. Daniel Suarez (DK $6,600, FD $6,000) is also capable of outperforming expectations this week. He has two top-10s from 10 visits to the track and should outperform his pair of 21st-place finishes in the two races there last year. Finally, things have started to get on the right track for Harrison Burton (DK $5,700, FD $4,500). The rookie endured a rough start to the season but managed to finish 16th last week. That should give him confidence heading into this week's race at a track he has three top-10s from four starts in the Xfinity Series.
