This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
First Data 500
Location: Martinsville, Va.
Course: Martinsville Speedway
Format: 0.5-mile oval
Laps: 500
Race Preview
Last week's race at Kansas Speedway solidified the final eight championship contenders. Denny Hamlin staked his claim on one of those spots with his fifth win of the season – one less than teammate Martin Truex Jr. and one more than Kyle Busch. With that race finish the bottom four of Brad Keselowski, Alex Bowman, William Byron, and Clint Bowyer were jettisoned from contention. That leaves Chase Elliott as Hendrick Motorsports' lone remaining contender. He is alongside Joey Logano, Kevin Harvick, Kyle Larson, and Ryan Blaney in fighting against the dominant Joe Gibbs Racing trio. The stage resets for those eight contenders this week at Martinsville Speedway where Keselowski won earlier this season. Joey Logano won this race a year ago, and Ford has won four of the last five races at the track. Hamlin expressed his eagerness to get to this race and continue his charge forward. His five circuit wins are second only to Jimmie Johnson among active drivers and another this week would pave his path to Homestead and the championship finale.
Key Stats at Martinsville Speedway
Number of previous races: 141
Winners from pole: 21
Winners from top-five starters: 73
Winners from top-10 starters: 102
Winners from 21st or lower starters: 7
Fastest Race: 82.223 mph
Previous 10 Martinsville Winners
2019 spring – Brad Keselowski
2018 fall – Joey Logano
2018 spring – Clint Bowyer
2017 fall – Kyle Busch
2017 spring – Brad Keselowski
2016 fall – Jimmie Johnson
2016 spring – Kyle Busch
2015 fall – Jeff Gordon
2015 spring – Denny Hamlin
2014 fall –Dale Earnhardt Jr.
Martinsville Speedway is a flat oval in the shape of a paperclip with long straights and tight turns. Dealing with traffic, track position, and equipment management will be the focus of the weekend. Keselowski dominated the spring race at the circuit with 446 laps led while Logano led 309 of 500 last year. Both drivers started in the first five rows and no driver has started deeper than 15th and won since 2014 when Kurt Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. both achieved the feat. The circuit's long pit road and short lap distance make unscheduled stops or penalties a disaster. Teams will work to maximize track position and that could matter more to finishing positions than having four fresh tires at a circuit like this. Lapped traffic has proven to be the downfall of top drivers this season and they will be hard to avoid this week and drivers will have to navigate it successfully all afternoon while saving as much tire and brake wear for the run to the finish when they will need everything in their arsenal to come out on top.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Busch - $11,800
Martin Truex Jr. - $11,400
Denny Hamlin - $11,000
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Joey Logano - $10,100
Chase Elliott - $9,800
Brad Keselowski - $9,500
Ryan Blaney - $9,300
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Clint Bowyer - $8,900
Erik Jones - $8,700
Kurt Busch - $8,500
Jimmie Johnson - $8,100
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Matt DiBenedetto - $7,800
Ryan Newman - $7,500
Daniel Suarez - $7,300
Chris Buescher - $6,900
Ty Dillon - $6,200
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Brad Keselowski - $9,500
Ryan Blaney - $9,300
Kurt Busch - $8,500
Alex Bowman - $8,300
Ryan Newman - $7,500
Austin Dillon - $6,700
Penske Racing swept the practice charts at Martinsville this weekend and Brad Keselowski and Ryan Blaney took the top two spots in the second session. Keselowski won there earlier this season and would complete the sweep with a win this weekend while Blaney has three top-10s at the track in the last four races. Kurt Busch backs them up as being the third fastest car in the second practice. He has two Martinsville wins from 38 career starts. Hendrick Motorsports is represented by Alex Bowman. He has only one top-10 here but has been making things happen for himself. He has two top-fives in the last five races and was 11th last week in Kansas. Ryan Newman had a rough race last week in Kansas but could turn things around again this week where he won in 2012. His qualifying at this track has not been the best, which has given fantasy owners a five-point boost on average from finish differential alone. Austin Dillon finishes the selection with his recent return to form at the track. After back-to-back 30th-place finishes he scored an 11th-place finish there earlier this year, which was his third top-15 finish at the track in the last five.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Joey Logano - $10,100
Clint Bowyer - $8,900
Erik Jones - $8,700
Jimmie Johnson - $8,100
William Byron - $8,000
Ty Dillon - $6,200
Joey Logano leads the higher-risk lineup with his fastest lap speed in the weekend's opening practice. Logano is an excellent qualifier at the circuit and leads laps consistently. He won this race last season. Fantasy owners looking for some Joe Gibbs Racing representation could switch Logano for Denny Hamlin and Jimmie Johnson for Daniel Suarez. Both would be ample substitutes to fill out a deep lineup. Backing up Logano in this version is Clint Bowyer, who had the best 10-lap average from the first practice of the weekend. Bowyer won here last spring and was seventh earlier this season. Erik Jones has yet to score a top-10 at this track and it is about time he improved that average. Kurt Busch would be an alternative in this position, but the poor streak at this track shouldn't continue too much longer for Jones before he turns things around. Jimmie Johnson is a nine-time winner at this track who has started to find consistency in his current situation. The team is improving, and Johnson could outperform expectations this week as a result. William Byron is another driver poised to drastically improve his Martinsville record this week. His best finish there so far was 20th last spring. Ty Dillon, on the other hand, has two top-15 Martinsville finishes in the last two visits.
