This article is part of our NASCAR DFS series.
Hollywood Casino 400
Location: Kansas City, Kan.
Course: Kansas Speedway
Format: 1.5-mile tri-oval
Laps: 267
Race Preview
Ryan Blaney secured advancement to the next round of playoff eliminations with a narrow victory over Ryan Newman in one of the closest finishes in NASCAR history last week. The race at Talladega Superspeedway saw every playoff driver encounter trouble of some sort, and it quickly became a matter of survival. Blaney, scoring his first win of the season, made the breakthrough and will have a chance to advance to the final four contenders as a result. Only he and Kyle Larson have guaranteed their spots in the penultimate round of eliminations. The remaining six spots will be hotly contested, especially near the cutoff line. Alex Bowman, Chase Elliott, Clint Bowyer and William Byron all sit below the cut line heading into this weekend's race at Kansas Speedway. The gap to Joey Logano in eighth position is 16 points from Bowman in ninth. While nothing is decided, it seems likely that at least Elliott, Bowyer and Byron are facing a must-win situation this week. Elliott is the defending winner of this week's race, while Brad Keselowski won the most recent race at the circuit earlier this season.
Key Stats at Kansas Speedway
Number of previous races: 27
Winners from pole: 6
Winners from top-five starters: 13
Winners from top-10 starters: 16
Winners from 21st or lower starters: 2
Fastest Race: 152.057 mph
Previous 10 Kansas Winners
2019 spring – Brad Keselowski
2018 fall – Chase Elliott
2018 spring – Kevin Harvick
2017 fall – Martin Truex Jr.
2017 spring – Martin Truex Jr.
2016 fall – Kevin Harvick
2016 spring – Kyle Busch
2015 fall – Joey Logano
2015 spring – Jimmie Johnson
2014 fall – Joey Logano
While Elliott and Keselowski are the most recent winners at the track, Jimmie Johnson and Kevin Harvick are tied for the most wins at the venue with three each. Additionally, in the last four races only one driver led at least 100 laps, yet none of the four were able to convert that advantage into the win. Logano, Harvick, Larson and Kyle Busch each suffered that fate. The last driver to lead more than 100 laps and win was Martin Truex Jr. in the spring race of 2017. Keselowski's win earlier this season was decided in overtime by less than a second over Bowman. Now Bowman stands on the outside of the final eight playoff positions looking in. Fresh tires are a big deal at the circuit that places a premium on grip, and Keselowski had them. Fantasy owners will want to pay close attention to drivers with the fastest 10-lap averages in practice this week. Managing tires and saving equipment for late restarts could prove pivotal in deciding who transfers to the final championship elimination round before the season finale in Miami.
DRAFTKINGS VALUE PICKS (Based on Standard $50K Salary Cap)
DraftKings Tier 1 Values
Kyle Busch - $11,400
Kevin Harvick - $11,000
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,800
Denny Hamlin - $10,500
DraftKings Tier 2 Values
Joey Logano - $9,800
Brad Keselowski - $9,600
Kyle Larson - $9,400
Ryan Blaney - $9,200
DraftKings Tier 3 Values
Clint Bowyer - $8,800
Alex Bowman - $8,600
Erik Jones - $8,400
William Byron - $8,200
DraftKings Long-Shot Values
Matt DiBenedetto - $7,600
Ryan Newman - $7,300
Chris Buescher - $6,700
Ryan Preece - $6,400
MY PICKS THIS WEEK
Lower-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Kevin Harvick - $11,000
Kyle Larson - $9,400
Alex Bowman - $8,600
Aric Almirola - $7,800
Chris Buescher - $6,700
Ryan Preece - $6,400
Harvick has won twice at Kansas in the last six races and led more than 100 laps at the track earlier this season. After leading a minimum of 10 laps in every race at the circuit in that time, he should be a good bet to achieve another top finish or win this week but will have to do so from the back. Larson also has been on a good streak of finishes at Kansas. He led 101 laps there last spring and has four top-10 finishes in the last five. This will be a definitive race in Alex Bowman's season. He finished second at the track this spring and has been making his own luck as the playoffs have progressed. He'll have to do that again this week, and his odds of being successful are good, with three of his last four visits to the circuit being top-10s. Aric Almirola picked up his first top-five since Phoenix last week at Talladega and will work to continue that momentum this week. He has not finished outside of the top 12 at Kansas in the last four races. Chris Buescher will be looking forward to joining Roush Fenway Racing in 2020 but still has his sights set on top finishes until then. He led 10 laps and finished 10th at Kansas this spring for his second top-10 at the circuit. Capping off the lower-risk lineup this week is Ryan Preece, who drove to a 25th-place finish at Kansas in the spring.
Higher-Risk Lineup ($50K Salary Cap)
Martin Truex Jr. - $10,800
Joey Logano - $9,800
Erik Jones - $8,400
Austin Dillon - $7,200
Ricky Stenhouse Jr. - $7,000
Daniel Hemric - $6,600
Leading off the higher-risk lineup selections is Truex, who swept victories at Kansas in 2017. His four top-five finishes in the last five races there make him an easy early selection. His starting spot is also more favorable than teammate Kyle Busch's, which could help give him the edge. Logano is a two-time Kansas winner who also has three top-10 finishes from the last six Kansas races. He was in contention for the win last week at Talladega so he'll want to get the job done this week. Fantasy owners not impressed with his starting position could choose teammate Keselowski instead. Joneshas also been an excellent performer at this track. His last three races here have all produced finishes of seventh or better. Austin Dillon has been quietly consistent at Kansas, too. The Richard Childress Racing driver has only missed the top 20 three times in his 12 career starts at the circuit. His average finish of 16.9 from that time is a good average for this position in most fantasy lineups. It was announced that Ricky Stenhouse Jr. would be swapping seats with Buescher this week. He has never snagged a top-10 Kansas finish but he has led 22 laps and picked up two 11th-place finishes in the last three races. Daniel Hemric finishes the lineup by virtue of his 18th-place finish there earlier this season alongside his first series pole.
