Crypto.com Miami Grand Prix
Location: Miami, Fla.
Course: Miami International Autodrome
Course Length: 5.41km
Laps: 57
Miami Grand Prix Race Preview
F1 will make its first stateside appearance of the season this weekend for the Miami Grand Prix. The primary storyline heading into the grand prix remains off track and with Red Bull, as Adrian Newey, one of the masterminds behind Red Bull's dominant car, has announced that he's parting ways with the team. On track, it's a near certainty that Max Verstappen's dominance will continue, while Sergio Perez will look to give the team its fourth 1-2 finish of the season.
The race for second in the Constructor Standings got a bit more competitive between Ferrari and McLaren at the Chinese Grand Prix, as Lando Norris landed a second-place finish to put Ferrari on notice that a challenge is coming. We'll dig into this more during some of our picks, but the fact that Norris was able to land that result on a track with long and slow corners is promising for McLaren's overall form.
The most compelling remaining battles project to be Fernando Alonso against the better of the two Mercedes drivers for the weekend, as well as the race for the final points position -- which has primarily been between Haas, RB Racing and Lance Stroll to this point in the season.
Key Stats at Miami International Autodrome
- Races: 2
- Winners from pole: 0
- Winners from top-5 starters: 1
- Winners from top-10 starters: 2
Miami International Autodromo Track Preview
We'll have a limited sample of running prior to the grand prix itself, as F1 will hold its second sprint weekend of the season. That in turn leaves the teams with only practice before the sprint shootout and sprint race.
The majority of the Autodrome is taken up by 19, predominantly slow, turns. However, there is an exceptionally long straight to balance that out. As has traditionally been the case at this track, Pirelli has provided C2 , C3, and C4 tires for the weekend, the middle range in terms of hardness. Miami has been a one-stop race in the first two years, and that should remain the case in 2024, though there has been some chatter of degradation potentially increasing this year. That could push a couple teams into a two-stop strategy. Overall, look for drivers to use the two hardest compounds in the race, though the order will be up to team strategy. For example, starting from ninth on the grid last season, Verstappen ran hard tires first before swapping to mediums. The drivers starting further up the field went from mediums to hards.
DraftKings Value Picks
Tier 1 Values
Max Verstappen - $17,000
Tier 2 Values
Sergio Perez-$10,400
Charles Leclerc- $10,000
Lando Norris - $9,800
Carlos Sainz Jr. - $9,600
Tier 3 Values
Fernando Alonso - $7,400
Oscar Piastri - $7,200
Tier 4 Values
Lance Stroll- $5,200
Yuki Tsunoda- $5,000
Nico Hulkenberg $4,800
Tier 5 Values
Alex Albon - $4,400
Esteban Ocon- $4,200
Daniel Ricciardo - $3,800
Formula 1 DFS Picks for Miami Grand Prix
Captain – Carlos Sainz Jr.- $14,400
Lando Norris - $9,800
Fernando Alonso- $7,400
Nico Hulkenberg - $4,800
Daniel Ricciardo - $3,800
Constructor- Ferrari - $9,800
It doesn't feel good to fully fade Red Bull from the lineup, but it's impossible to roster Verstappen as the captain paired with the team as constructor. Even doing so with Perez makes a build very difficult. Going Perez-Red Bull and then punting several spots is a viable choice, I've just opted to go more well-rounded in my sample lineup.
Sainz is the cheapest of the elite options and that makes him a value. He's beaten teammate Charles Leclerc in three of the four races in which both drivers have participated, yet still checks in at a slight discount. Ferrari as a whole has proven to be the second-best team, and the slow corners of Miami should help them to a better result as compared to McLaren.
I'm not overly bullish on the outlook for McLaren this weekend due to their struggles with long and slow corners, but Lando Norris overcame some of the weaknesses of the car to finish second in China. I'd still stay away from McLaren as a constructor, but Norris is capable of great results anywhere.
Fernando Alonso and Oscar Piastri offer a cutoff point in pricing between drivers who should be expected to score points and those hoping to contend for the top 10. Results from this season suggest he'll be scrapping for a top-six finish with Piastri and both Mercedes drivers.
After that duo, there are a lot of different options to choose from to fill out the remaining spots in the lineup. RB Racing and Haas have been the most consistent contenders to score points, though I would exclude Kevin Magnussen of the four drivers from those teams. Alpine could be a sneaky buy-low option. They introduced a new floor in China which significantly helped their pace. It's unclear if the improved performance will continue, but neither driver is likely to get much attention on DK. I'd prefer Ocon of the pair, but Pierre Gasly ($3,200) has the talent to take advantage of improved machinery and would open up a lot of room in the budget.
Valtteri Bottas ($4,000) deserves at least a brief mention. He has shown pace consistently during the season but has had bad luck ruin nearly all of his weekends. Kick Sauber appears to have resolved its pit issues for the most part, so that should no longer hamper his race form.
Formula 1 Betting Picks for the Miami Grand Prix
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook
Sprint Winner – Sergio Perez (+1100)
Grand Prix Podium Finish – Carlos Sainz Jr. (+195)
Grand Prix Top-Six Finish – Fernando Alonso (+145)
Grand Prix Points Finish – Yuki Tsunoda (+145); Nico Hulkenberg (+175); Esteban Ocon (+470)
The outcome of the sprint qualifying and sprint race itself will change the potential outlook for some of these picks, but with a pretty static top half of the field, we have a good idea of how things will generally shake out. The two long-shot bets I am interested in are Perez winning the sprint race and Ocon grabbing points on Sunday. We've already discussed the latter option a bit, so we'll focus on Perez in this section. If he were to best his teammate on merit, this would be among his better opportunities. Perez is very comfortable on street circuits and has experienced some success in Miami. He won't out-pace Verstappen across the length of a grand prix, but in a sprint, he has a better chance.
Sainz is undervalued in the market slightly, with the same odds as Leclerc to land on the podium and longer odds than Norris. That cluster of drivers is all similar (though different styles) in overall talent and potential to deliver results, and I expect Ferrari to fare better than McLaren for the weekend overall.
Hulkenberg and Tsunoda look to be the class of the drivers in the midfield so getting them at plus-money to crack the top 10 is a good option. I'd shy away from taking both because there is typically at most one points position open for the taking.
