Mobil 1 301 Preview: Round of 12 Begins

We stay on the short track circuit this week, but we travel from the foothills of East Tennessee to New England. NASCAR's top division heads to the one-mile, flat oval of New Hampshire Motor Speedway for the Mobil 1 301 this Sunday afternoon. The bull ring at Loudon, New Hampshire is a true oval with variable banking of 2-to-7 degrees in all turns, and 1-degree on both straight aways. It is a flat track in the purest sense. The handling of the race car is very important at this oval. How the car turns, how it exits the corners and how it holds the turns will dictate the driver's ability to pass or be passed at NHMS. A driver and crew chief's patience is tested to the max at this challenging short track. If adjustments can be made and an ill-handling car can be corrected over the course of a run, that driver and crew chief will reap the rewards of their persistence and patience. A lack of patience will usually end up in a wreck at this short track, as this typically leads to over-driving the car and pushing the speed/handling envelope a bit too far. Considering that last weekend we saw a lot of two and even three-wide and wild racing at Bristol, we could see a lack of patience manifest itself this weekend at Loudon. This oval is where the NASCAR adage "race the track, not the competition" was born. New Hampshire Motor Speedway embodies that statement to the highest degree.

This event is the only time we race at the Magic Mile this season after NASCAR scheduling took away one of the track's two annual dates in 2018. For tips on what we might expect this weekend, look no further than the earlier races at Martinsville and Phoenix. All are flat tracks, and while Martinsville is smaller, the handling, setup and racing are quite similar to Loudon. Phoenix has more speed than NHMS, but the flat track in Arizona boasts some similar characteristics to the oval in New England. While keeping these races in mind, it will still be helpful to take a look back at the recent historical statistics at the Loudon oval. The loop stats shown below cover the last 20 years or 33 races at New Hampshire Motor Speedway.

New Hampshire Motor Speedway has been a track of streaks for several seasons. Once a manufacturer gets this place figured out, the teams tend to pile up the wins until the competition catches up and unseats them. From 2012 to 2013 Toyota reeled off three-straight victories at the Magic Mile. Brad Keselowski's victory in the summer of 2014 broke the Toyota string and set Ford up to win the next two events at the one-mile oval. More recently, Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch swept the Magic Mile in the 2017 season and returned Toyota to dominance at the historic short track. That would last until 2018 when Kevin Harvick won back-to-back Loudon victories for Ford in 2018-19. Brad Keselowski and Aric Almirola would then build on that Ford streak by winning the next two New Hampshire races in 2020 and 2021. However, Christopher Bell's win in this event three years ago, followed by Martin Truex Jr.'s victory here in 2023 handed control of Loudon back to Toyota and brought Ford's streak to an end. Bell would win again last season at Loudon and extend Toyota's streak to three races at New Hampshire. Will Toyota drivers and teams continue the streak this weekend? There's good reason to believe they will.

In this event one year ago, we witnessed Bell absolutely dominate and lead 149 of the 305 laps while a late caution and overtime would add some spice, he would hold off Chase Briscoe to capture the win. It was a surprising performance for the Joe Gibbs Racing veteran to claim his second-career win at the New England short track. There were several suitors for the win that afternoon in Loudon. Aside from Briscoe, Tyler Reddick and Denny Hamlin were also major forces on the track that day. With the way short track racing has gone this season, we should see some similar parity among drivers and manufacturers again this weekend. We'll take a look at the loop stats, the past history of New Hampshire Motor Speedway and current trends to determine who will dominate this Sunday afternoon at the one-mile oval in Loudon.

The Contenders – Drivers in the hunt for the win

Christopher Bell – Bell has always liked this flat, one-mile oval. The driver of the No. 20 Toyota won or finished runner-up in three of the last four races at the Magic Mile. In Xfinity Series competition, Bell has won all three starts he's made at Loudon in that division of NASCAR. That's a pretty impressive accomplishment and it speaks to his excellence in racing at this track. The Joe Gibbs Racing youngster has been strong on the Cup Series short track circuit in 2025. Bell has nabbed two wins and four Top 10's in the seven events on ovals one-mile or less in size. He won this past week on the Bristol short track and is riding a ton of momentum into New Hampshire this week.  

Chase Briscoe – The driver of the No. 19 Toyota finished runner-up in this event one year ago with his old race team at Stewart Haas Racing. Briscoe brings that experience to his new race team at Joe Gibbs Racing. He has two Top-10 and three Top-15 finishes in his last three attempts at the Loudon short track. Briscoe has been a strong short track performer this season. He has led 221 combined laps, grabbed three Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes on ovals one-mile in size and less. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver is coming off 127 laps led and ninth-place finish at Bristol this past week. Briscoe has yet to cash in on a short track victory in 2025, but it's just a matter of time.

Brad Keselowski – The owner/driver of the No. 6 Ford has been really impressive over his career at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Keselowski owns two-career victories and close to 600 laps led. The veteran driver boasts 16 Top-10 finishes which checks in at a strong 67-percent Top-10 rate. Keselowski has five Top 10's in his last six starts at Loudon that includes a win in the 2020 season coming into this weekend's Mobil 1 301. The veteran driver boasts pretty good stats on the short tracks this season with two Top 5's and four Top 10's in seven starts on ovals one-mile in size or less. He's fresh off a strong runner-up finish at Bristol this past Saturday night. The New Hampshire oval is a great track for this driver and team, and Keselowski has been trending in the right direction in recent weeks.

Denny Hamlin – Hamlin is a three-time New Hampshire winner, and he's finished runner-up at this small oval on multiple occasions over the years. Loudon really is one of his favorite short tracks on the circuit. It's been a challenging season for the driver of the No. 11 Toyota, but Hamlin does have two victories this season on the short tracks. With a 61-percent Top-10 rate at the Magic Mile, Hamlin is one of the more consistent performers at this facility in NASCAR's top division. The Joe Gibbs Racing star has tons of upside at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and that easily makes him among one of the top contenders this week.

Solid Plays – Near locks for a Top 10 with an outside shot to win

Ryan Blaney – The driver of the No. 12 Ford has been on a tear on this season's short tracks. The Penske Racing star has four Top-5 and five Top-10 finishes on the bull ring circuit and includes his current three-race Top-5 streak on ovals one-mile in size and less. Blaney has not been stellar at the Magic Mile in his Cup Series career, but he does have four Top-10 finishes in his last eight starts at New Hampshire. Those performances and 69 laps led have lowered Blaney's average finish at Loudon to a respectable 14.6. Coming off the impressive Top-5 effort at Bristol this past week, he has to be encouraged coming to New England this weekend. The driver of the No. 12 Ford will be a force in Sunday's Mobil 1 301.

Alex Bowman – If you're examining purely historical stats at NHMS, you're likely to discount Bowman all together. A deeper dive into the numbers shows that he's not been all that bad here with one Top 10 and six Top 15's in his last eight starts. He qualified very well in this event one year ago but succumbed to an early retirement due to an engine failure. As to short tracks this season, the No. 48 Chevrolet team has been impressively consistent. Bowman has earned four Top 5 and six Top 10's in the seven events for a strong 9.0 average finish. He's coming off a strong fourth-place finish this past weekend at Bristol Motor Speedway. We expect this driver and team to be sharp in this 301-lap battle at Loudon. 

Kyle Larson –  Larson has been pretty sharp on the short tracks this season. The Hendrick Motorsports star has one victory and 420 laps led. He also has four Top-5 finishes (57-percent) on ovals one-mile in size and less this season. Larson cracks the Top 5 at Loudon at a strong 43-percent rate and despite never having won here, the veteran driver is almost always challenging the Top 5 late in this race. He's finished third- and fourth-place in his last two starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. The driver of the No. 5 Chevrolet has never won at the Magic Mile but considering how well Larson has performed on the small ovals in 2025, we wouldn't be surprised to see him pull into victory lane this Sunday afternoon.  

Joey Logano – The driver of the No. 22 Ford is a two-time New Hampshire winner and Logano has six Top 10's in his last eight Loudon starts going into Sunday's short track battle. Logano's 14 Top-10 finishes at the Magic Mile check in at a respectable 54-percent rate, which has only been bolstered in recent seasons. The Penske Racing star grabbed fourth- and eighth-place finishes at the Richmond and Martinsville short tracks this season and that bodes well for his start at New Hampshire Motor Speedway this weekend. Logano led 7 laps and raced to a strong fifth-place finish this past weekend at the Bristol short track. He's definitely shifted into playoff mode at this point.   

Sleepers – Drivers with good history at New Hampshire & solid upside

Tyler Reddick – The 23XI Racing star has finished sixth-place in his last two starts at the New Hampshire short track. That brings his Top-10 total to three in five Cup Series starts at the oval for a good 60-percent Top-10 rate. The driver of the No. 45 Toyota has been a reasonably good performer on the short tracks this season but not a standout. That's why we've moved him to the sleepers list this week. Reddick cracked the Top 15 at Bristol this past weekend so he's trending in the right direction. The biggest motivation will be the playoff picture. He's hanging by a threat to start the Round of 12 so there will be plenty of motivation for this driver and team.   

William Byron – Byron was a winner earlier this season at the short track in Iowa but he's been a Top-15 finisher only in the last two short track starts since Iowa which is a bit puzzling. With over 220 laps led on short tracks this season, these ovals have been rewarding but somewhat inconsistent. Byron has just seven-career Cup Series starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, and a pedestrian 17.0 average finish over that span. He's yet to really make a mark on this particular short track yet. However, we believe that will change this Sunday afternoon as Byron should post a career-best finish at the New England oval. A Top-10 finish seems fairly certain in Sunday's 301-lap short track battle.   

Chase Elliott – The Hendrick Motorsports star has better short tracks in his resume, but he's still good enough at New Hampshire to warrant fantasy consideration. His Loudon stats aren't very impressive (27-percent Top-10 rate and no wins) but Elliott has been on point with his racing of late and short tracks have been kind to the driver of the No. 9 Chevrolet. Elliott has three Top-10 finishes in seven starts on the small ovals in 2025 for a reasonable 43-percent Top-10 rate. He's led a combined 291 laps on the bull ring circuit this year so he's done a fair amount of racing among the leaders. Elliott's not in race-winning form right now, but he's good enough to fetch a Top 10 at the Magic Mile.

Ross Chastain – Chastain has been a reasonable performer in recent short track races, although he's trying to get back to the level of performance he displayed earlier this season. His average finish for the season on these one-mile and less ovals stands at a respectable 15.1. The driver of the No. 1 Chevrolet has earned Top 10's in three of his last four starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. That has made up for some struggles he had on the one-mile oval earlier in his Cup Series career. Chastain now boasts a sound 50-percent Top-10 rate at Loudon and he finished 10th-place in this event one year ago. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has a lot of upside in Sunday's race in New England.

Bubba Wallace – Wallace has led 135-combined laps in his last two short track efforts, but he hasn't secured the finishes that he deserved. Still, the 23XI Racing veteran has three Top-10 finishes in seven short track starts this season (43-percent) and the 18.0 average finish is not awful. Wallace's best performance was on the flat short track of Martinsville Speedway (third-place) and that's a good precursor for the Magic Mile. After some struggles earlier in his career at this oval, Wallace has grabbed a pair of Top 10's in his last three starts at New Hampshire. That's only brought his career Top-10 average here up to 29-percent, but the recent sampling is 67-percent. We believe Wallace will be a top performer in the Mobil 1 301.    

Ty Gibbs – The biggest risk/reward driver this weekend is perhaps Gibbs and the No. 54 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota team. The young driver has just two Cup Series starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway and they've been unremarkable to this point (27th- and 16th-place), however, Gibbs has been on the uptrend of late and especially on the short tracks. He led 201 laps this past Saturday night at Bristol before eventually finishing 10th-place in the Bass Pro Shops Night Race. That is one of three Top 10's he's collected this season on the bull rings and his 13.6 average finish on them is a reassuring stat. Gibbs was a Top-15 finisher at the flat short track in Martinsville earlier this season and we believe he'll be at least that good if not better in Loudon.   

Slow Down – Drivers to avoid this week

Kyle Busch – The Richard Childress Racing star is a three-time New Hampshire winner, including as recently as 2017. Busch's 1,100+ laps led at Loudon and 33-percent career Top-5 rate at this one-mile oval can't be overlooked. However, Busch's last five starts at the Magic Mile are quite concerning. Four finishes outside the Top 30 due to crashes and a subpar 12th-place finish three seasons ago are his body of work at this one-mile oval the last five years. In addition, Busch has struggled on short tracks this season. With just one Top 10 in seven starts on ovals one-mile in size and less (14-percent) and his subpar 16th-place finish at Bristol this past weekend. We believe he's a driver to put on the fantasy bench for the Mobil 1 301.  

Daniel Suarez – Among full-time Cup Series drivers, Suarez has had probably the most struggles this season on short tracks. He has just one Top 10 in seven starts (14-percent) and he's finished outside the Top 25 on four occasions. That puts his average short track finish in 2025 at a disappointing 24.6. Suarez just crashed and finished 37th-place at Bristol this past weekend and he's limping into New England looking for a rebound performance. The Trackhouse Racing veteran has not been awful at Loudon in his Cup Series career (33-percent Top-10 rate), however, he hasn't cracked the Top 10 there in his last two starts and finished a disappointing 21st-place in this event one year ago.          

Austin Cindric – In the wake of Cindric's surprising Top-5 finish at Richmond a few weeks ago, he's come crashing back to Earth the races since. He's finished outside the Top 30 in two of the last four events including his 30th-place finish at Bristol this past week after a great qualifying performance. The Penske Racing driver is likely poised for more struggles this week at New Hampshire Motor Speedway. Cindric has made just three Cup Series starts here with a subpar average finish of 19.0 between them. Short tracks in general have haunted the No. 2 Ford team this season. Cindric has just one Top-10 finish vs. two finishes outside the Top 30 for a poor 19.4 average finish. None of the numbers, both historical and recent, point to a good finish for this driver and team this Sunday. Cindric is a bench driver for this visit to New Hampshire.   

Erik Jones – While Jones has had some modest success this year with five Top-10 finishes to-date, which has mostly occurred on the intermediate and larger ovals. The Legacy Motor Club veteran has had his struggles on the short tracks. Jones has no Top-15 finishes this season and only two Top 20's on the bull ring circuit for a 24.4 average finish. In nine-career Cup Series starts at New Hampshire Motor Speedway, he has two Top 10's for a 22-percent Top-10 rate at the Magic Mile. Jones has not been awful here but he does tend to disappear into the field in these Loudon races. Given how the No. 43 Toyota team is trending on short tracks we believe Jones is a driver to pass up in weekly lineup leagues.