This article is part of our NASCAR Barometer series.
Historic Martinsville Speedway hosted the final playoff race before the championship finale, and it did not disappoint. Joey Logano and Tyler Reddick were perhaps the only two drivers not feeling the pressure of the weekend. For the other six championship contenders, the pressure was well and truly on, though. Martin Truex Jr. started on pole, but it wasn't long before the playoff contenders eclipsed him. Chase Elliott rocketed to the front and claimed the first stage win of the day. However, Ryan Blaney started to show his hand in the second segment with a second-place stage finish behind Brad Keselowski. The final stage turned out to be a cat-and-mouse game of drivers attempting to have the freshest tires closest to the finish. While Elliott appeared to have the upper hand, moving teammate Kyle Larson out of the way to take the lead, Blaney was on a charge from behind. With 15 laps remaining, the defending series champion made the pass and pulled ahead for the win and a chance to win back-to-back titles.
Behind Blaney, the battle was no less intense. William Byron and Christopher Bell were locked in a points battle where every position would make a difference. As Chevrolet and Toyota drivers became impromptu teammates in the final laps to help Byron and Bell respectively, a last-corner pass on fellow Toyota driver Bubba Wallace drew Bell even on points with Byron with the tie-breaking finish in hand. The drama wasn't over, though. Bell's exuberance to make the move saw him ride the outside wall, a move deemed illegal by NASCAR in 2022. Officials reviewed the pass and deemed Bell had committed a safety violation, dropping him 22nd and handing Byron the fourth and final championship slot at Phoenix. With the stage now set, all sights focus on Phoenix. For Joey Logano, Tyler Reddick, Ryan Blaney, and William Byron, an entire season's worth of work comes down to this single race.
UPGRADE
Ryan Blaney - Blaney stormed to the front in Sunday's final fuel run, making the pass for the lead with 15 laps remaining to win and earn a chance to defend his series title. The Team Penske driver started the weekend on the outside looking in, knowing that he would have to win to have another championship shot at Phoenix. He qualified 14th, but showed speed early in the race. By the end of the first stage, he was in the top 10. By the second stage finish, he has established himself as a top-five contender. Blaney never looked back and put together the ideal final stage, setting up his car to cut through the field and claim the lead with less than 20 laps to go. In total, Blaney led 32 laps in a come-from-behind win to claim a spot in the championship finale. Next week, he will aim to be the first driver to successfully defend the championship under the current playoff format. He finished second to do that last season and has six consecutive top-five finishes at Phoenix.
William Byron - Of the two drivers that entered the Martinsville race weekend in the championship positions, Byron's was the most precarious. The Hendrick Motorsports driver had to outscore Christopher Bell throughout the race or win. Byron quickly put the pedal down, starting and racing in the top five from the start. When all was said and done, Byron and Bell ended up tied on points for the round with Bell's second-place finish at Las Vegas acting as the tie breaker. However, after Ross Chastain's banzai move a few seasons ago, Bell's move in the final turn to pass Bubba Wallace caught the ire of NASCAR. After several uncomfortable minutes waiting, Bell was penalized, granting Byron the points he needed for a second-consecutive championship finale appearance. Last season Byron finished fourth in his first championship appearance at Phoenix after starting on pole. He finished 18th at the track earlier this season and won in the spring of 2023.
Brad Keselowski - Owner/driver Keselowski scored his 14th top-10 of the season Sunday at Martinsville. The result, which included a win in the second stage, was yet another mark of success for the team as it closes out its most successful year since Keselowski's arrival in 2021. This year, he has the ninth-highest tally of top-fives and top-10s of all drivers this season and made the playoffs with a win at Darlington. This was the first season Keselowski has had a win since 2021, and his nine top-fives are the highest accumulated since then, too. Sunday's ninth-place result was also his best Martinsville finish since joining the organization as part owner. The trend is heading the right direction, and Keselowski has one more chance to add some additional momentum for the winter break. He left Phoenix in the spring with his first top-five of the year and another would be a boost as they work to get even better for 2025.
Austin Cindric - While Blaney didn't need the help, Cindric was there if necessary. The Team Penske driver, who had already been eliminated from the playoffs, qualified just 24th but worked his way into the top five in the final stage. Cindric's fourth-place finish was his fourth top-five of the year and his best at Martinsville in the Cup Series. The finish was another top result that this team can hang their hats on heading into the winter. In fact, they should largely consider the 2024 season a success. With a victory, a playoff appearance, and seven top-10 finishes, the current season is an improvement over 2023 and closely matches Cindric's rookie campaign. While Penske obviously expects more with two teammates in the finale, improvement is the name of the game for Cindric, and he is delivering. Phoenix is another opportunity to keep that trend going. Cindric's best series result there is 11th and he crashed out of the spring race.
DOWNGRADE
Chase Elliott - Elliott's championship hopes were extinguished at Martinsville. The former champion had largely been a quiet contender all year, but he roared to life Sunday, needing a win to advance. For a large part of the race, it looked like Elliott might get the job done, too. He qualified on the front row and won the first stage. From there, he and his team focused on getting Elliott onto the freshest tires possible in the final stages of the race. Their late-stop strategy looked like it would pay dividends, too. Elliott forced his way into the lead, but was unable to hold off Ryan Blaney's late charge. Despite finishing second, it wasn't enough to head to Phoenix with a shot at the title. It was still Elliott's 11th top-five finish of the season, and he is one of just seven drivers to hit double digits in that metric this season. However, his role this week at Phoenix will be one of support for his championship-eligible teammate.
Kyle Larson - Joining Elliott in missing out on a championship chance is Larson. Despite scoring twice as many victories as any other driver this season, Larson's finishes in the last playoff round of 11th, 13th, and third were not enough to see him advance to the championship race. Larson gave it his all Sunday, though. He led 71 laps and scored stage points in both segments before being unable to hold off Elliott, who was on fresher tires. It has still been a good season for the No. 5, though. With six race wins, five poles, 14 top-fives, and 17 top-10s, Larson has arguably had the most success of any driver this year. However, he will still miss out on the season's biggest prize and instead look to a more consistent 2025. If there is any place this team needs to improve, it is there. Despite the superlative statistics, Larson also notched five DNFs. More consistency, along with those top finishes, is where this team will focus for next year.
Tyler Reddick - Martinsville was to be a place to finalize preparations for Phoenix and maintain some momentum after winning the week prior at Homestead. Instead, Martinsville looked like a week to forget for the No. 45 team. Reddick has mostly struggled at the track and Sunday's race was more of the same. He qualified just 31st and never made an impact, suffering problems all afternoon, and retiring with brake issues with less than 50 laps remaining. It was a disaster for the team, which might be on the backfoot now heading to Phoenix. Reddick's finishes have been improving at the desert oval, though. All three of his top-10 finishes at the track have come in the last five races. He led 68 laps there in the spring and finished 10th. To win the 2024 championship, he will likely have to do better than that, though. Reddick's best Phoenix finishes are a pair of third-place finishes from 2022 and 2023.
Denny Hamlin - Hamlin's championship hopes also came to an end at Martinsville. The Joe Gibbs Racing driver got the weekend off to the worst possible start with a crash in practice. He did not make a qualifying attempt after the incident and started at the rear of the field in what was arguably his most important race of the season. The team made a valiant comeback effort, though. Hamlin was quick in the race and finished the second stage in the top 10. However, Hamlin needed to win and never made it all the way to the front. His fifth-place finish made him the biggest mover of the race, but it was not enough to keep himself in the championship picture. With no Joe Gibbs Racing drivers in the championship finale, Hamlin may decide to play a supporting role to the team he owns, 23XI Racing's Tyler Reddick. Hamlin himself has won twice at Phoenix and finished 11th there earlier this season.
Ty Gibbs - Something continues to be amiss with Gibbs and the No. 54. The second-year Joe Gibbs Racing driver qualified well for Sunday's race but was not a factor once racing began. Gibbs failed to stay at the front of the field and missed out on stage points as well. A broken axle may have been the culprit, but it wasn't the first failure of that part the team has had to deal with in recent months. Despite making the playoff field on points, many expected more from Gibbs in his second full-time season in the series. It isn't over yet, and Gibbs still has one shot left at getting a race win in 2024. He finished third at Phoenix in the spring, leading 57 laps. However, the team's recent results suggest doing that this week would be unlikely. Sunday's 32nd-place finish was their fourth finish in a row of 30th or worse, and it seems more likely their 2024 season will end with a whimper.
BIGGEST SURPRISE
Christopher Bell - Despite being in the best position of the eligible championship drivers to advance, Bell faltered Sunday. He started 16th but struggled early and failed to score points in the first stage. Despite getting inside the top 10 for the second stage finish, Bell remained on the backfoot. On the final lap, Bell and Byron were separated by a single spot. As Bell moved around the slowing Wallace in the final turn, Bell pushed too hard and rode the outside wall in a move that NASCAR had deemed illegal following the 2022 Martinsville race. After several minutes of review following the race, Bell was demoted to 22nd position, losing points and his chance at racing for the championship. It was a bitter pill to swallow in what has been a great season for the No. 20 team. However, Bell will enter Phoenix with something to prove by winning. If successful, he would be the first driver to sweep victories at any track this season.
