This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
COVID-19 is taking over the season and it's possible more matches will be postponed following the posting of this article. There were just seven matches this past midweek and there are set to be just five as of writing. Instead of guessing who will be missing players, I'll try to focus on the matches that involve teams not going through outbreaks.
Record: 52-42-5. Up $1,286 on $100 bets.
The Plays
The dumb thing with short weeks is that players are often rested that you didn't plan on being rested. For some reason, Patrick Vieira decided Jack Butland would be a good choice Wednesday against Southampton. I also thought Joachim Andersen would've been back in the starting XI, but James Tomkins got another call and did not play well. I still almost snuck out a Palace win, but Southampton scored twice from outside the box and that was it.
Burnley didn't have to play midweek, but I'm not sure how much of an advantage that is considering they haven't scored in their last three matches. I've been on Aston Villa almost every match under Steven Gerrard and I'm not stopping. It's incredible how a new manager can revive a team, not only in tactics but also in mentality. You can get them at -135 to beat Burnley or go with something that'll get you plus odds. I like 'No' on both teams to score at +100, but since I like Villa, it only makes sense to take them in a shutout which is +185. Villa have allowed goals in four of their last five, but unless Maxwel Cornet starts, I'm not too worried about Burnley's attack.
Based off the schedule, I'm limited to just two other matches to write about, Man City and Liverpool favored away from home. I don't like forcing picks, but I also don't want to post an article with one paragraph and only one betting suggestion. Of note, I bet on every game, so this isn't too much out of the norm.
The odds are juiced on Manchester City, but that doesn't mean I'm going to bet Newcastle. I lost a recent bet because they couldn't score against Leicester, so I'm avoiding that bet, as well. My first suggestion is taking Man City -525 and Liverpool -175 in a Sunday parlay that equals -115 odds. I'm not sure Newcastle have enough to take a point from Man City, even at home, while Tottenham have had a mess of a week. While they should be close to full strength for this one as a lot of their players tested positive for COVID-19 last week, they weren't allowed to train as a team until earlier this week. That's enough for me to take Liverpool, though this one is more likely to finish in a draw.
No matter who is available for Tottenham, I know they want to play defensive under Antonio Conte. In Conte's last three matches against Liverpool while at Chelsea, there were five total goals scored with neither side scoring more than once in those games. Sure, the comparison isn't exact, but it's how Conte plays, hence the one goal allowed over the last four league matches. While it's far from safe, under 2.5 goals at +125 seems like the play. This is another contest that could go 1-0 or 1-1 and a Tottenham win isn't impossible, depending on who is fit enough to play.
Newcastle will likely try to take a defensive route against Man City and Eddie Howe will try to live off counterattacks. There's a chance this one is a little more defensive, but I don't believe in Newcastle and think over 3.5 goals at +120 is the play, though I'm not one to take over on 3.5 goals when the odds are almost even. It's more disappointing that under 3.5 goals is -150.
