This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
I can bet on games when starting XIs are released, but writing articles multiple days in advance during COVID-19 outbreaks doesn't help my record. For some reason, I was under the impression Tottenham wouldn't start half of their regulars against Liverpool and that clearly wasn't the case. They took advantage of a late Liverpool red card and stole a point at home. I'm again taking on a lot of COVID-19 unknowns for Gameweek 19, but you need your Boxing Day analysis.
The most difficult thing will be reading the teams that haven't played for a couple weeks, as teams like Burnley and Manchester United haven't played since the weekend of Dec. 11 and they aren't alone. It's a bit of a mess and I'll try my best not to bet on a team that may be down multiple starters. But again, there's no way of knowing the exact case for each team until an hour before matches begin.
Record: 52-44-5. Up $1,086 on $100 bets.
The Plays
I wrote my initial article Wednesday and then two more matches were postponed Thursday, so I had to remove a Wolves and Liverpool bet. Fortunately, I found something else in the odds on second look... I hope. The obvious bet is to take Manchester City -2.5 at +135 against Leicester, but that's been a tricky matchup in prior games. In fact, City haven't beaten Leicester by more than two goals since 2018, which is a span of nine matches, and Leicester have also won two of the last four.
That said, Leicester's defensive issues are worrying and it's hard to see them stopping Man City from scoring a slew of goals after they couldn't keep Liverpool at bay midweek. The more I write about it, the more I'm convincing myself. Let's do it. Manchester City -2.5 at +135 makes sense. Leicester played most of their regulars Wednesday and the status of guys like Caglar Soyuncu and Jonny Evans is unknown for this match. If they can't start, Jannik Vestergaard is next in line and he didn't look great in limited time Wednesday. I don't like the recent history, but Man City are rolling and this is a perfect spot for them to get four or five goals. If you want to take that route, over 4.5 goals is +255.
If you don't want to put everything into Man City, I'd parlay their moneyline at -500 with West Ham to win at -115, which goes to +124. I'm slightly worried about Michail Antonio not playing because of COVID-19, but West Ham rested a good portion of their players midweek and should have more of their regulars for this one. Helping this argument is that West Ham have won the last four home matches against Southampton by a combined 12-1 scoreline, bagging three goals in each win. Southampton have allowed multiple goals in their last four trips and while they may get Fraser Forster back, I'm not sure that does the trick. Taking West Ham at -115 by itself is an option and you could even go -1.5 at +235. It's Boxing Day, why not?
My first read on the Tottenham match was to take the over 2.5 goals, but I remember Antonio Conte often tricking me when he was at Chelsea and a lot of their matches went scoreless or 1-0 instead. While I like Tottenham to win at -130, Crystal Palace have troubled me before and it seems like they'll be rested and completely healthy for this game.
When Burnley and Everton played back in September, Burnley got the opener but Everton scored three goals in seven minutes and that was it. Otherwise, despite being at Everton, the match was fairly even and while it was the first game for them without Dominic Calvert-Lewin, the rest of the team was healthy and team morale was high.
All this is me convincing myself that Burnley are going to win this match (+115), which would be their second of the season. They've taken points in four of their last five at home and six of their last seven overall. Everton stole a point from Chelsea last time out, but I'm not sure they'll have the same motivation for this one. I'd prefer better than +115 odds on a team that has one win this season, but the news of Everton's COVID-19 situation quickly changed things. Burnley were +140 Wednesday and that number slowly crept down to the +115 as of writing.
I really like Aston Villa in a standalone Boxing Day home match as a +425 underdog, but their COVID-19 concerns are hard to ignore. It's unknown who had COVID-19 and who will be available for this match, making it harder to bet on multiple days in advance.
It sounds like Brighton will have multiple days of full training prior to this match, which likely means a return to their regular starting XI. Shane Duffy is back from suspension and Adam Webster is back from injury, while Neal Maupay is back from COVID-19. There's always the chance someone like Leandro Trossard tested positive late in the cycle and will be a late absence, but I can't base bets off that.
When healthy, Brighton are a top defensive side in the league, highlighted by there being two goals or fewer in six of their eight home matches. Since under 2.5 goals is -145, I'd rather take 'No' on both teams to score at -115. The worry with this match is that Brentford will force the issue, allowing for goals to be scored at both ends, but I'm not convinced that will happen. When these teams met in September, they combined for .76 xG as Trossard hit a stoppage-time winner out of nowhere. Neither one of these attacks has been consistent this season and that's what I'm leaning on with this bet.
Since there's one match Monday, I wanted a little piece of it. There's not much value in taking over 2.5 goals or both teams to score, so I'm stretching for "Both teams to score no draw" at +130. That means there needs to be at least three goals scored in this match, which is favored with the over 2.5 goals at -170. I think the adrenaline will be flowing for both sides and this is a perfect spot for Newcastle to surprise after a rough run of matchups that included Man City and Liverpool. Manchester United have played well under Ralf Rangnick, but I'm not sold on their run of clean sheets just yet. I think both teams will score and either side will be able to steal a winner. If you like my Newcastle argument, you can get them +1 at +110 odds.
