This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
The holiday schedule has been an absolute whirlwind for this article. I'm making what I think are logical bets, but there's no telling how managers will rotate and who is dealing with COVID-19. Then you have the weird results like Leicester City beating Liverpool 1-0 and it's been a tough couple weeks. Unfortunately, there are still postponements happening and it's inevitable more rotation will be made on another short week.
Record: 55-48-5. Up $991 on $100 bets.
The Plays
Arsenal have been blasted by elite teams this season and despite their form, I'm comfortable betting Manchester City. On one end, Arsenal are cruising and have won their last seven home games in all competitions. On the other, they lost 5-0 to Man City earlier in the season and more recently 4-0 to Liverpool. Those weren't at the Emirates, but I'm not sure Ben White at right-back will be enough to get points from this matchup. I'll take Man City -1.5 at +145 and hope for more Arsenal struggles.
Players were somewhat rested heading into Boxing Day and that led to a lot of goals. Since, teams have dealt with COVID-19 or three matches in the period of seven or eight days. Tired legs may mean tired defenders, but when players are tired, I tend to lean to lower-scoring matches. So, I'm looking at 'No' on both teams to score in a few matches.
Brentford v. Aston Villa +100
There has been at least one team that hasn't scored in three of the last four home matches for Brentford and the same has happened in two of the last three overall for Villa. This is maybe my least confident of the trio, but I think each team could win this match in a shutout. I don't think there will be a ton of opportunities for either side and the only reason I'm tentative on leaning Villa is that Tyrone Mings is suspended. Selling this bet is that Brentford haven't scored in their last three matches.
Everton v. Brighton -105
Everton haven't played in two weeks, so it's unknown how the starting XI will look, whether because of COVID-19 or guys like Dominic Calvert-Lewin returning to the XI. I'm always scared of Calvert-Lewin because he's easily Everton's best scorer, but I like Brighton's defense enough to take the under in this match. Instead of taking under 2.5 goals at -150, I'll grab both teams not to score. Both teams have scored in each of the last four Everton matches, but that hasn't been the case for Brighton, as their last seven matches have had two goals or fewer. I think both teams are in play for a shutout and a late winner wouldn't be surprising. My hope is that Brighton don't get another stoppage-time equalizer, something that's happened in their last three trips.
Manchester United v. Wolverhampton -120
This should be bet in every Wolves match, as it's hit in each of their last eight. They limit quality opportunities for opponents and consistently struggle to score themselves. Combine that with some of the recent lower-scoring Man United matches and it's easy to see why the odds are -120. Either way, that's still low enough for me to take in a single bet.
Over 2.5 goals at -115 is likely a trap between Crystal Palace and West Ham. There were four goals between them when they met earlier in the season and both have been prone to allowing multiple goals as well as scoring three themselves. I'm not sure why the odds are like this, but with Joachim Andersen again doubtful, I think West Ham can get three goals alone, even at Crystal Palace. This is also a match I'd consider the over 5.5 goals at +1000. That's a lot of goals, but these teams have a lot of attacking talent combined with inconsistent defensive performances.
I don't think Leeds should be a +110 favorite against anyone given their recent issues, but considering we don't know who will start for them, I'm passing on that match. Unfortunately, that's it for my picks, as my last one was going to be on Southampton, who are no longer playing.
