This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Matches are coming almost daily and it's not slowing down soon. Following the first round of knockout stages in Champions League the next two weeks, the next round of FA Cup begins. For now, midweek matches are a constant and there may be some rotation to watch out for. That was already seen with Cristiano Ronaldo getting benched at Burnley, and while maybe that was a tactical move, Manchester United are in the middle of eight matches in 27 days. They play every midweek in February, as well as March 2 to open next month.
I probably won't base my bets off projected rotation, but it's definitely something to keep in mind if you prefer to wait until lineups come out to put money down.
Record: 62-57-6. Up $834 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
Speaking of Manchester United, I've been underestimating their opponent's ability to score for too long. Southampton's scoring has been somewhat underrated, as they've scored nine goals in their last four away matches. I doubted them at West Ham and recently at Tottenham, but they somehow managed to win each contest 3-2. They struggled against top sides in previous seasons, yet those problems seem to have disappeared, also recently taking a point from Manchester City.
In this fixture last season, Southampton got an early red card and it was an ugly 9-0 result, and that was just over a year ago. Assuming the Saints don't get another early red card, I think they'll battle in this spot. They've scored 11 goals in the last seven meetings between these sides and have taken points in four of those. This is a tough bet to make away from home, but Southampton are +150 to win or draw.
Following recent results, the value has been lost on taking over 2.5 goals (-155) between Everton and Leeds. That's what happens when Everton give up three goals and then the Leeds game finishes 3-3. Instead, I'll go with both teams to score and no draw at +125. Prior to the wild draw at Villa, there was only one winner in the last six league matches for Leeds. As for Everton, they've had four draws in 21 matches this season.
I've talked about Frank Lampard overs for a couple weeks, so I don't need to dive into the numbers again. There will be goals in this match and I think either side can come out with three points.
The return of Ismaila Sarr has me a bit worried for Watford, but even if he's in, it's his first match under Roy Hodgson and he hasn't played with his teammates in a couple months. Under 2.5 goals is the safe bet, but it's -165, so I'm looking for more value. I like 'No' on both both teams to score at -120. Under 2.5 goals has hit in 11 of Brighton's last 12 matches and more importantly, I think both of these teams can be held scoreless.
Brighton always seem to screw me with a late equalizer, but I like how Watford looked in their recent match against West Ham when the only goal they allowed was a bit unlucky. Both teams are on 23 goals scored this season, which is barely above one per match, and I think the general way Brighton play could lead to a scoreless result. They'll hold onto the ball, but if Watford stay strong, they'll keep this match low scoring and may even get a winner on the counter.
Either this is a trap or the odds are completely wrong. I know Brentford and Crystal Palace had a scoreless draw earlier in the season, but that was in August. Both teams are having trouble keeping opposition out of their net and Palace have one away win in 11 chances this season, which is why I backed Norwich midweek. Going further, there have been 31 goals scored in 12 Brentford home matches and 31 goals in 11 Palace away matches. Why is over 2.5 goals at +130 for these teams? This is an easy play for me no matter the situation for Ivan Toney. This is the most favorable matchup Brentford have had since they beat Aston Villa 2-1 a month ago and I'll hope for a similar result.
I was tempted to take Liverpool -1.5, but Burnley put in a solid performance last half against Manchester United and Sean Dyche recently claimed Turf Moor was a fortress, so I'll stay away.
I like a couple totals and to get some value, I'm taking the rookie route of parlaying them together for a Sunday parlay. Wolves matches are always low scoring and I don't think Antonio Conte was happy with how his team defended against Southampton. Instead of being at risk of a 3-0 result, I'm simply taking under 3.5 goals between Spurs and Wolves at -380.
The second leg of the parlay is over 2.5 goals at -145 between Leicester and West Ham. Combine those and it's +113 odds.
I know Leicester looked somewhat better defensively against Liverpool, but this is a different matchup, one that's produced goals in the past. In fact, there's been at least three goals scored in the prior six meetings between these clubs, with three of the last four hitting five goals. Both these teams love to play off the counter and that's going to lead to an up-and-down match which will produce goals. If this goes under, the only reason I'd assume is because neither team could finish quality chances. If you only want to bet this match, I think taking over 3.5 goals at +165 is in play.
