This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Mistakes were made. I was overly confident coming off a perfect weekend and things went downhill following some unfortunate positive statements. But hey, it's not Gameweek 38 yet so there's another week for me to bounce back.
A lot of teams played midweek, so I wrote this before a lot of press conferences and before a lot of injury statuses were made known. Hopefully, that doesn't change too many things, but you never know when a Premier League manager will hide details until the last minute.
Record: 71-66-6. Up $860 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
I like betting against Brighton without Adam Webster, but I can't completely overlook how they've played the past two years. While they've had some bad results of late, I think I'll pass on suggesting Liverpool -1.5 away from home. In the last seven meetings between these teams, the Reds have won by more than one goal just once.
Instead, I'll turn to a match that should feature goals no matter who is on the pitch. There's been at least three goals in five of the last six meetings between Manchester United and Tottenham, and one team has scored at least three in each of the last three. United's back line has struggled against better competition and that's what Tottenham bring to the table with an in-form attack since Dejan Kulusevski joined up. I also think if Edinson Cavani is available to start, he'll be a boost for the Red Devils following the Manchester derby. You can get over 2.5 goals at -135 and both teams to score at -170, but I'm going with the nervy route of 'Both teams to score no draw' at +145. I think this is a 2-1 or 3-1 type of match, as I'm not confident in either back line in bigger situations.
I was higher on the Chelsea/Newcastle under 2.5 goals at +115, but both teams are playing well and I'm not confident enough to bold this play. I think it'll be more defensive because that's Newcastle's best way to get points from this spot, but without Romelu Lukaku in the XI, it seems like Chelsea have found something up front.
I'm kind of going back to the well with Southampton win to nil at +160. They're a better team at home (despite Thursday's result) and often play for a clean sheet if they're up a goal early in the second half. That was the case when these teams first met and I'm not overly confident in Watford away from home with multiple injuries on their front line. They were a mess at Wolves on Thursday and I'm not sure how things get better against a stout Southampton side on a short week.
The odds are probably going to change in the West Ham and Aston Villa match, so hopefully the number is still reasonable ahead of match time. I'm taking Aston Villa draw no bet at +140. I think the odds should be closer to even for these teams, as West Ham were in Spain on Thursday and they may not have Jarrod Bowen, who has been their best player this season. Combine that with Villa's form and I think it's a great spot for Villa to take points, if not win outright. West Ham are struggling and I like betting against struggling teams.
I was originally on the Everton and Wolves under, but I'm definitely not touching that given recent results and a short week. Everton are a mess and while at home, I'm not sure how they'll perform against what has been an inconsistent Wolves side in recent weeks.
The benefit of not playing in Europe could be seen in Sunday's matchup between Arsenal and Leicester. The Foxes have looked better in recent matches, but they were probably outplayed in the win against Leeds and before that they had a fairly close match against Burnley. Arsenal have won three of the last four meetings by two goals and I think that happens again. The Gunners have won their last four matches and I think they win by a couple against a Leicester side without Jamie Vardy. I also like this bet because you can get plus odds on it with Arsenal -1.5 at +145. I've been tentative about betting the Gunners in the past, but I think this is a perfect spot for them to get another three points.
