This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Apparently writing an article more than a week in advance of matches doesn't work. I wrote the Gameweek 31 preview two weeks ago before a vacation and that blew up in my face, most notably in a parlay involving Chelsea to win at home against Brentford. I can explain some of my losses, but I can't get my head around a 4-1 home loss for Chelsea, especially against a team sitting near relegation. No matter, I'm refreshed and ready to win again.
Record: 76-74-6. Up $622 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
It feels dumb to bet Everton at this point and after second thought, I'm not going to. After writing a paragraph about Everton double chance at +110, I'm scraping that bet. I cannot bet on Everton and feel good about it right now.
Instead, I'll look to another team who are coming off a bad 3-0 loss. Arsenal are back at the Emirates where they've been fairly consistent this season. Remove the losses against the best three teams in the league and they've won 10 of their last 12 matches at home. More so, Brighton have one goal in their last seven matches and even without Kieran Tierney available, I'm not sure the away side will have enough to score. You can get 'No' on both teams to score at -120, but I'd rather get better odds and go with Arsenal to win to nil at +150. Even with injuries, I think Arsenal will be fine at home against a team that can't figure out how to hit the back of the net. I'd also consider under 2.5 goals at -125, but at that point, you're playing for a 1-1 or 0-0 result instead of Arsenal winning to nil.
I was on the Norwich and Burnley under, but it's another match that I'd rather not touch. It has the makings of a scoreless draw, but this is one of the last good spots of the season for Norwich, who remain last in the table. At some point, Dean Smith will have to push a little more and a game against Burnley is as good as any. I'd be surprised if this was another defensive contest because the remaining schedule is not kind for the Canaries.
It's a tough week so I had to look elsewhere for my best bets. That led me to corners between Southampton and Chelsea. The Saints have taken at least six corners in their last five matches, including the match against Man City, and these teams combined for 19 corners when they met in the EFL Cup in October. Chelsea may be struggling, but as long as this match doesn't finish scoreless, I think either side has the ability to rack up corners when losing, making over 10.5 corners at -105 a good place to look.
I think looking at some Southampton corner props is interesting, as well. If Chelsea go ahead early, Southampton could have 10-plus corners and you can get Southampton +950 in the Race to 9 corners. Those are crazy odds for a team that is third in the league in terms of corners taken.
Watford have a couple more favorable home matches, but this is the easiest remaining game for Leeds, which means they need points from it. Making things more vital for points is that Leeds don't have a match the following week, so this result will sit with them. I'm not sure how Watford will attack this game because a draw isn't the worst thing for them, especially with Brentford, Burnley and Everton on the upcoming home schedule. Either way, I'll take a chance that this match is up and down with both teams to score no draw at +145. Watford haven't had a favorable home match in some time, while Leeds are still trying to figure things out under Jesse Marsch and there have been goals in their recent contests.
All eyes will be on Manchester City home against Liverpool, as the home side are one point ahead in the table. A win for Liverpool would be massive and could decide the Premier League title. The Reds are in better form, winning 17 of their last 18 matches with the lone loss being home against Inter Milan in a match they didn't need to win. That's the first worry for Man City, who have been a little more inconsistent, struggling to find goals against the likes of Crystal Palace and Atletico Madrid, as well as losing 3-2 at home to Tottenham less than two months ago.
Still, I prefer Man City in this spot against what is either a tired or injured Mohamed Salah. The striker hasn't looked like himself since the international break when he returned from a foot injury and missed a vital penalty for Egypt. He's totaled no goals or assists in his last two starts from 130 minutes.
City have taken points in the last four meetings, winning two of them by a combined 8-1 scoreline. Going further, Liverpool haven't won at City since 2018 when they were already up three goals in a Champions League tie.
That's why I'm siding with Man City to win at +105, mainly because I'd bet them to win any match with plus odds. While Liverpool are on a nice run, their best wins from that bunch are maybe Arsenal and Inter Milan. They've had a fairly easy schedule the last couple months and they're also traveling more this week with a game in Benfica compared to Man City staying at home.
