This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
I rebounded last week with four plus-odds winners, so that means I'm back in business? There have been a ton of matches lately, but injuries have seemingly only affected teams fighting for a top-four spot. Manchester United were in shambles midweek, yet they could turn their fate around with a win at Arsenal on Saturday. Neither team has been consistent over the last month, so it's anyone's game.
Otherwise, the matches are split between Saturday and Sunday with Crystal Palace and Leeds United featuring Monday night. There are just five gameweeks remaining and a lot to be decided. Fortunately, if you've been reading my articles all season, we can almost take home winners in Wolves to finish top half at +330 and Brentford to be the best of the promoted sides at +110.
Record: 80-79-6. Up $682 on $100 bets.
THE PLAYS
The dream isn't gone for Norwich just yet after they almost stole a point from Manchester United last weekend. They're more rested than Newcastle and you can get decent +160 odds on them for a draw no bet. Newcastle have seemingly been a top-five side at home under Eddie Howe, but they haven't looked the same away and that's why I'm on the Canaries. The thing about Newcastle is that all of their games seem to be close or come down to the final few minutes. Considering Norwich have to push for a full three points, I think they'll be pushing until the end unless they don't need to, and in that case, they'd be winning.
Aston Villa have had two weeks to think about their loss to Tottenham and while I'm not sure what that means from a betting perspective, I think they'll come out with three points in mind. It's been the opposite for Leicester, who have had a non-stop schedule and they'll likely rotate throughout the squad, something they've been doing on their back line the last few weeks with UECL play. It's an even matchup and I think it'll be plenty up-and-down with both sides getting opportunities to win it. I'm going over 2.5 goals at -120 with an eye on both teams to score no draw at +150 because this seems like a 2-1 result to either side.
There's not much to say about Liverpool right now outside of that it seems like they can score at least three goals against everyone. I was originally going to take over 3.5 goals, but I think a 3-0 result is in play and the over 3.5 in the Man United match was somewhat lucky to hit late. There's a chance Everton put in a similar uninspiring performance after how they looked Wednesday at home against Leicester City in the first half. This is a lot, but -2.5 goals at +155 is the logical move, assuming Everton don't find some kind of massive motivation because it's the Merseyside derby. To be clear, they're barely above relegation and that should've be enough motivation for them in prior contests.
Burnley have been a bit more attack-minded of late at home, but I'm not sure that matters as much against Wolverhampton. When these teams met in December, neither team looked too threatening as they combined for 1.17 expected goals. Going further, in nine of the last 11 away matches for Wolves, at least one team has gone scoreless. Burnley may be pushing more with hopes of not getting relegated, but Wolves may not allow them to do much with that mindset. I like both teams not to score at -130, which is considerably better than the -195 for under 2.5 goals.
I've said all season that you only bet Crystal Palace at home, so hopefully you didn't take them at Newcastle on Wednesday. I suspect a bounce back is in play, especially since they haven't allowed a goal in their last three home matches. Leeds have had two weeks off and have had some positive results, but I'm not sure any of those results are something scaring me off this bet. The bigger worry is that Palace couldn't score when these teams met in November, albeit that was away from home. Palace are rightly favored in this spot and I feel good enough to take them at +105 to win. It's that simple.
