This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Sports betting is LIVE in North Carolina! Bettors across the Tar Heel state are ready to seize the opportunity to enjoy a variety of generous North Carolina sports betting promos that you can use to bet on popular sports betting markets available on the best North Carolina sportsbooks. With North Carolina sports betting officially live as of March 11, 2024, bettors are encouraged to stay informed about the ongoing promotions to enhance their sports betting experience and maximize their potential winnings using bonus bets.
UCL Best Bets for Arsenal vs. Porto
It's not difficult to project how this match will go, at least in terms of possession. Arsenal managed 65-percent possession in the reverse leg and figure to be at or above that level at the Emirates. Porto will get a few opportunities off the counter, but it's unlikely they'll push up the pitch much unless the Gunners get two early goals and change the dynamics of the match.
As it stands, Porto are up 1-0 and are probably okay with a 1-0 loss and a chance at penalties. That means Porto have no reason to change their tactics too much and if anything, will probably be more defensive than the first leg, especially if Arsenal still need a goal (or goals) in the final 20 minutes.
If you can bet possession, I would take Arsenal to have more than 70 percent of the ball, but there are a couple other routes I like. I don't think Arsenal are going to pop in five goals in the first half like some recent league matches, so my first look is the corners betting market.
Betting on Corners
I think Arsenal -2.5 corners (-125) in the first half is the most reasonable bet and the one I like the most. Mikel Arteta doesn't want to get into a situation of still needing a goal in the final quarter of the match, which means they'll likely push for that opener from the start. I expect Porto to hold strong for the most part and that should lead to corners.
Porto will struggle to reach two corners in the entire match and I'm not projecting them to have more than one in the first half. If that's the case, Arsenal only need three or four corners for this bet to hit and I think they could reach five. If they struggle to score the entire match, I think -5.5 for the game and -3 for the second half are also in play. However, my favorite corner bets are in the first half because that removes the possibility of Arsenal scoring three goals before the 60th minute and not needing to push as much the rest of the way.
If you prefer a simpler bet and like Arsenal to win, I think taking them to win with a clean sheet is a reasonable route at -115. Porto will get a couple opportunities and similar to the match against Brentford, I think the only way they find the back of the net in this spot is if Arsenal make a defensive mistake.
The sportsbooks screw you in the passing market, so I wouldn't look at those numbers. For example, it's +105 for Declan Rice to have 85-plus passes, yet he hasn't attempted more than 80 passes in his last nine starts.
Betting on Shots
Arsenal were ridiculed for not playing to win in the first leg and it'll be difficult to attack that sentiment. They're -125 to have seven or more shots on target and -125 to have at least 20 shots. Arsenal are an efficient attacking team rather than volume based, so I'd rather go with shots on target with at least eight shots on target being +150. It's a big number, but if they struggle to score, I think that number could balloon in the closing stages.
I also don't hate throwing in all of their attacking players into a single-game parlay. Even just betting Kai Havertz, Leandro Trossard, Martin Odegaard and Declan Rice to have at least two shots with nothing else is +185. While they aren't a volume based in terms of shooting, they spread the ball around plenty, though Trossard would be the one I'm most worried about in that group, depending on if Gabriel Martinelli is on the bench or not.
Arsenal vs. Porto Betting Picks
- Arsenal -2.5 corners first half -125
- SGP: Arsenal to win with a clean sheet -115
- Arsenal to have at least eight shots on target +150
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
