DFS Soccer: DraftKings Showdown Preview for Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid

DFS Soccer: DraftKings Showdown Preview for Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid

This article is part of our DraftKings Fantasy Soccer series.

Real Madrid have an implied win probability just below 60 percent for the Champions League final at Wembley Stadium against Borussia Dortmund. Madrid have nearly a 1.90 implied goal total, which is well above Borussia Dortmund at 1.05.

3:00 pm: Borussia Dortmund vs. Real Madrid

For detailed stats and odds, check out the

DraftKings Showdown DFS Fantasy Soccer: Saturday UCL Final Cheat Sheet

BORUSSIA DORTMUND TEAM PREVIEW

PlayerDK Pos.Flex SalaryNotes
Gregor KobelGK$5,600Kobel is more expensive than usual for goalkeepers on teams with Dortmund's implied win probability. Save upside always exists in one match.
Ian MaatsenD$5,000Maatsen has often gone 90 minutes, but he also has sub-off-at-halftime downside. He's not a bad attacking option in GPPs.
Mats HummelsD$3,400Hummels has a median 4.8 fantasy-point floor in his last 10 Bundesliga starts. He's a fine punt in all formats.
Nico SchlotterbeckD$3,200Schlotterbeck has had a solid floor similar to Hummels. This match won't go like a typical Bundesliga match, but like Hummels, he's a decent punt.
Julian RyersonD$4,200I always struggle to get excited about Ryerson, who hasn't demonstrated much of a ceiling in 2024
Emre CanM$4,400 
Marcel SabitzerM$6,400This feels a tad bit expensive for Sabitzer, but I think he's a solid option in comparison to similarly-priced players like Carvajal and Valverde.
Karim AdeyemiF$5,800Adeyemi has loads of pace but is liable to only play 65 minutes. That risk seems priced in, so I like him as a tournament dart.
Julian BrandtM$8,200Brandt has been rested the last two matches but still might be substituted around the 75-to-80 minute mark. I expect him to take most set pieces.
Jadon SanchoM/F$7,000Sancho took some corners in the last two matches with Brandt starting on the bench. The trend in important matches with both starting has been Brandt taking most set pieces, but it wouldn't be crazy if Sancho took some.
Niclas FullkrugF$7,800Fullkrug will take penalties, but his implied goal probability of around 22 percent is not particularly inspiring.

Dortmund aren't expected to rotate from their last couple Champions League matches, especially after shutting out PSG. Donyell Malen ($9,200), Marco Reus ($8,000) and Felix Nmecha ($3,800) are most likely to sub on in the first 90 minutes. Sancho, Adeyemi and/or Brandt are most likely to sub off early, but given a two-week rest, all of them could be set for 80-plus minutes, depending where the match goes.

I'm expecting Brandt ($8,200) to take a majority of Dortmund's set pieces, though it is possible that Sancho ($7,000) contributes some corners. Dortmund committed to playing on the counter against PSG in the semifinal and had less than 40-percent possession in each leg. DraftKings Sportsbook odds suggest that Dortmund are slight favorites to get at least four corners, so both Brandt and Sancho will likely need to contribute beyond set pieces to pay off their prices.

REAL MADRID TEAM PREVIEW

PlayerDK Pos.Flex SalaryNotes
Thibaut CourtoisGK$7,600Andriy Lunin is reportedly battling the flu and will travel separately. It seems like Courtois is likely to start instead of Lunin.
Ferland MendyD$3,600Mendy makes sense in lineups scripted for a 1-0 Real Madrid win, but he doesn't have much attacking or floor upside. 
Eder MilitaoD$3,600Nacho might start instead of Militao.
Antonio RudigerD$4,800I don't think many people will get to Rudiger at this price, which makes him an intriguing tournament option.
Dani CarvajalD$6,200Carvajal only has four matches this season where he logged for or more crosses. He has some ceiling games in him, but he is a bit expensive for his floor.
Toni KroosM$9,000Kroos will take most of Madrid's set pieces. He played 69 and 76 minutes in the two semifinal legs. 
Eduardo CamavingaM$4,000Aurelien Tchouameni is out with a foot injury, so Camavinga is likely to start. In a slate with few punts, Camavinga is a good option. 
Federico ValverdeM$6,600Valverde is immensely talented but his role is often more defensive.  
Jude BellinghamM$10,200Bellingham is one of the slate's most likely goalscorers and he has a decent floor, too. He usually plays 90 minutes.
Vinicius JuniorM/F$11,200Vinicius is expensive, but I also think he is the top option overall and well worth his salary. He took an important penalty against Bayern in the semifinal.
RodrygoM/F$9,400I'll continue to play Rodrygo as a contrarian tournament captain until I go broke. 

Real Madrid players are all priced up in comparison to the two previous Showdown slates against Bayern Munich. Semifinal hero Joselu ($9,800) and Brahim Diaz ($10,400, somehow) are attacking options for Madrid off the bench, and I think Luka Modric ($8,600) will make a late appearance, as well. 

I think the question of the slate is how to handle Kroos and his lofty $9,000 price. It's his last match for Los Blancos, but he has been regularly subbed after 75 minutes this season and definitely needs set pieces to be worth his price. Real Madrid's over/under corner prop on DraftKings suggests that they are slight favorites to get six or more corners. I expect Madrid to have more possession than Dortmund, so Kroos should have some open-play value. Finally, Vinicius Junior ($11,200) took a key penalty in the semifinals, even with Modric on the pitch, so it appears that role is his.

CASH-GAME STRATEGY

Vinicius looks like the best overall option and I'd like to find the salary needed to fit him in the captain spot in cash games. I know he doesn't have set pieces, but he has a strong floor and is the most likely goalscorer overall. Captaining Vinicius requires some sacrifices, though. Bellingham ($10,200), Kroos ($9,000) and Brandt ($8,200) are all quality options, but you can only afford two of them if you captain Vinicius. My personal lean is to favor the Madrid options over Brandt, but if I play Brandt, I'm more likely to drop Bellingham from my lineup than Kroos. I know Kroos is a bit expensive, but pricing is tight overall and there aren't many alternative options that have good floors.

A lot of the lineups I am looking at with Vinicius as captain require someone priced in the $6,000 range and I don't mind playing Sabitzer ($6,400). Carvajal ($6,200) would be fine, as well. Camavinga ($4,000) looks like a good punt for cash games and as I mentioned above, the Dortmund center-backs have decent floors.

If you don't captain Vinicius, some interesting player combinations become available. Kroos captain lineups can fit both Bellingham and Vinicius in the flex along with Brandt. If you are particularly bullish on Real Madrid, a Camavinga captain lineup allows for a full onslaught of Real Madrid's best attacking players. I feel like cash game lineups with a punt captain like Camavinga are often a bit too gimmicky, so while I am unlikely to play a lineup like that in cash, I do think it's viable. 

TOURNAMENT STRATEGY

I expect the field to gravitate towards Real Madrid attackers. They are the favored side with a much stronger implied goal total, while the Dortmund attackers are awkwardly priced. That said, the flagship GPP on Saturday has over 4,500 entries, so I think there will be merit in taking a more contrarian point of view and trying to fit at least one potential Dortmund goalscorer in lineups.

Another thing that stands out is that both goalkeepers have been priced up, with Courtois at $7,600 and Kobel at $5,600. I normally think that playing 1-0 style lineups with a favorite like Real Madrid winning is often overrepresented by the field, but the Courtois price tag is expensive and I think that might keep his rostership down.

Lineup Ideas (GPP only)

Rodrygo CPT - Vinicius - Courtois: Rodrygo has similar anytime goalscoring odds as Vinicius, but I think Vinicius will have much more captain rostership. The savings Rodrygo offers compared to Vinicius allows for some more unique player combinations in the final spots of your lineup, as well.

Vinicius CPT - Brandt - Adeyemi: Even if he has high rostership, I still want some Vinicius captain lineups in GPPs. This type of lineup construction would speculate for a Madrid 2-1 win or perhaps a 2-2 draw that goes into extra time. Either way, I think it's worth taking some shots on Dortmund attackers. Adeyemi is a pacy winger and very affordable, but I also want to play options like Fullkrug and Sancho in this type of construction. 

Kobel CPT - Kroos - Vinicius: In a Cup final, I always want some exposure to goalkeeper captains, including the underdog goalkeeper. Kobel was a great captain choice in the semifinal Showdown legs against PSG, and there is no reason for me to think he can't put together one last heroic performance at Wembley. If Dortmund get an early lead, Kroos, Vinicius and other Real Madrid attackers will be forced to push, so I'd like to play at least two or three of them in this type of construction.

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Jack Burkart plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: NewYorkValues, FanDuel: NewYorkValues, Yahoo: NewYorkValues.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jack Burkart
Jack covers fantasy soccer for RotoWire and has twice won the FSWA's Soccer Writer of the Year award (2022 & '23). He is a Minnesota Loons fan and long-suffering Tottenham Hotspur supporter.
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