DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Italy v. Spain Showdown Preview

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DraftKings UEFA Euro 2020 Italy v. Spain Showdown Cheat Sheet

Italy are a slight favorite for Tuesday's Euro 2020 semi-final, though there's a chance Spain get more money leading up to the match as an underdog. There aren't expected to be a ton of goals, but the implied goal total is sitting around 2.5, with both teams expected to hit the back of the net.

Italy are considered somewhat of a surprise in this spot, but they played well leading up to the Euros and continued that form the last few weeks. They had no problems in the group stage and did enough to get past both Austria and Belgium. It's likely their performance against an underwhelming Belgium side is why they're favored in this matchup, so if you weren't overly impressed by them in that game, this is a good chance to fade them.

Then again, Spain are probably underdogs because they needed penalty kicks to get past a Switzerland side without Granit Xhaka. Even against Croatia, Spain gave up a lead and didn't have the defense to hold onto it before winning in extra time. They continue to dominate possession, but that may not be the case against Italy, and they've also shown a weakness on the back line when not in possession.

The Favorite

Lorenzo Insigne ($11,000) is rightly the most expensive player, as he's been Italy's best and most-consistent option. He's scored two goals and, more importantly, has two shots on target in three of four matches to go with a role on set pieces. Even if he splits sets, he's been doing enough in the attack to have the highest floor on his team, hitting double-digit floor points three times. 

Insigne will be a popular cash captain, while Ciro Immobile ($9,600) could be the best move in GPPs. He hasn't topped four fantasy points the last two matches, so he won't be looked at in cash games, but as seen in the opener against Turkey, he can have the most upside for Italy with the best odds to score. In cash games, you need a goal from him to hit value because he doesn't do much else outside of shoot.

The biggest question for both lineups is whether Domenico Berardi ($10,800) or Federico Chiesa ($7,800) starts. Given the price difference, Berardi shouldn't be popular in any format because he's a similar price to Insigne but more likely to be subbed. The same goes for Chiesa, but he's a sizable discount and, as seen against Belgium, his floor can surpass five points. If playing well, similar to Berardi, he won't be subbed in the 60th minute.

Italy's midfield has been a talking point all tournament, and finally Marco Verratti ($7,200) received a price boost, likely because he scored at least 12 fantasy points in all three of his starts. He had a split role on set pieces last match and is a good value route no matter who starts up front. Nicolo Barella ($5,600) is unlikely to match the goal and assist from last match, but that won't stop people saving money on him, while Jorginho ($4,200) remains a safe play with five or six points a likely landing spot unless he's given the go on a penalty.

Spain have a couple high-scoring matches in this tournament, but they've totaled two goals in their other three matches and hit the back of the net just once from 28 shots against Switzerland. Italy gave up some quality looks to Romelu Lukaku last match, but they did enough to get the win.

Captaining Gianluigi Donnarumma ($6,400) wouldn't be the worst tournament strategy on this slate with the hope that Italy score in the first half and then Spain go all out the rest of the way but never score in a 1-0 Italy win. In that scenario, Donnarumma could have the most points on the slate with a win, clean sheet and a few saves. Using him in cash games is a little trickier because even though he's getting wins and not allowing goals, he's not making many saves. If this game finishes 1-1 and he only has two saves, that won't be enough, especially when full-backs Emerson Palmieri ($5,400) and Giovanni Di Lorenzo ($5,000) are more than $1,000 cheaper.

Similar to Donnarumma, the full-backs can be captain options, as both will get forward and could easily make the score-sheet. And even as the favorite, you can get Giorgio Chiellini ($3,000) and Leonardo Bonucci ($3,200) as minimally priced center-backs, if that's the route you need.

The Underdog

For those backing Spain, Koke ($7,400) has become the logical cash captain every match. He scored double-digit fantasy points in four of five games while supplying seven shots, eight chances created, 10 fouls drawn and 28 crosses. He doesn't appear in play for a full 120, but he's cheaper than the attackers and should hit his numbers unless Spain score early and then sit back the rest of the way. 

It's a little tougher if you want other Spanish captains because production has been all over and everyone is in play to be subbed outside of Pedri ($3,800) and maybe Sergio Busquets ($3,600). Dani Olmo ($8,000) is expected to start for the injured Pablo Sarabia ($8,200) and will get plenty of attention because he could split sets. There's also a chance he plays more than he has if Sarabia isn't on the bench. Olmo has been good when on the pitch, but he's yet to play more than 75 minutes in a match.

On the opposite side of Olmo, Ferran Torres ($9,800) is inexplicably the team's most-expensive player. He had one huge match against Croatia and has otherwise disappointed, managing just one shot and no chances created in 90 minutes against Switzerland. Given those numbers, he could be underused and that may make him a decent GPP target. 

Alvaro Morata ($8,600) is always hit or miss, but after playing just 54 minutes last match, it's expected he'll stay on the pitch longer against Italy. He's a viable option as Spain's most likely player to score, but it'll be hard to spend on him in cash games when Olmo and Koke are cheaper with better floors.

As for Pedri and Busquets, both are in play even if they don't have much upside. While Italy are favored, there aren't many reasons to spend a few hundred more on Jorginho unless you really think he's taking a possible penalty. Pedri and Busquets don't have clean-sheet upside, but I'm not sure that's something to bank on, and even then, Aymeric Laporte ($4,000) has 2.5 fantasy points or fewer in three of the last four games.

As for the full-backs, Jordi Alba ($6,800) and Cesar Azpilicueta ($5,200) will definitely be considered as captains in all formats. Alba seemingly can't be stopped with the national team, hitting at least eight fantasy points in all four of his starts. He had a goal taken back against Switzerland and still managed 15.6 points from two shots, four chances created and eight crosses. He could rival Koke for popularity as Spain's best cash captain and given the numbers, you can't argue that.

It's not as simple with Azpilicueta, who had just 3.7 points in 120 minutes against Switzerland. He's better left for GPPs with the hope that he repeats his Croatia performance when he headed in a goal.

Unless you're backing Unai Simon ($6,000), Spain's center-backs should be avoided. Pau Torres ($3,400) and Eric Garcia ($3,000) continue to replace each other every match, and Laporte is too expensive at $4,000. For Simon, it's a similar case as with Donnarumma except his numbers in the tournament haven't been as nearly as good, mainly because of Spain's shaky back line. It's possible Spain win 1-0 and captaining Simon in GPPs will win you something, but unless he does more in this match than the prior five, it'll be hard to spend on him in cash games.