DraftKings Fantasy Soccer: Wednesday UCL Picks

MATCHES (ET)

• 3:00 pm: Sporting Lisbon vs. Ajax
• 3:00 pm: Club Brugge vs. Paris Saint-Germain
• 3:00 pm: Inter Milan vs. Real Madrid
• 3:00 pm: Atletico Madrid vs. FC Porto
• 3:00 pm: Liverpool vs. AC MIlan
• 3:00 pm: Manchester City vs. RB Leipzig

FORWARDS

Kylian Mbappe, PSG at CB ($10,200): It's expected that Mbappe, Lionel Messi ($11,000) and Neymar ($10,000) will line up together for the first time. The three will combine to form what is arguably the most talented front three in the history of soccer. Deciding which of the three to roster is going to be a nightmare all season, and that's especially the case Wednesday because we don't have much to go by. Messi has only played 24 minutes this season, while Neymar has played just 66, and they've yet to be on the pitch together. Meanwhile, Mbappe is taking five shots per game and has four goals in his last three. From a floor perspective, Neymar is probably the safest based on the number of fouls he draws and his share of set pieces. Most people will likely roster Neymar and Messi together. Set pieces and peripheral stats are nice, but it's goals that matter for tournaments, especially when you're paying a five-figure salary. For me, each of the three has a 33 percent chance to be PSG's highest scoring player, but their relative popularity will not reflect that. Mbappe is going to be rostered significantly less than Messi and Neymar, and the disparity is unlikely to be warranted. Neymar and Messi for cash, Mbappe for tournaments. Sticking with the topic of leverage, PSG and Manchester City will be the popular targets, meaning every other forward on the slate will be somewhat overlooked. One of them scoring a brace would go a long way towards winning a GPP. Sadio Mane ($8,200) and Diogo Jota ($7,400) at home to AC Milan stand out.  

Raheem Sterling, MCI vs. RBL ($6,500): After PSG, Manchester City is where people will look next as they're big favorites at home to RB Leipzig. The salaries are also quite soft. Sterling stands out because he's the cheapest but Ferran Torres ($7,700) and Gabriel Jesus ($7,200) would be good options as well. Looking elsewhere for a cheap goal, Eden Hazard ($6,000) and Vinicius Junior ($5,700) are too cheap for an away match against Inter Milan that features two struggling defenses and a total hovering around 2.75.

MIDFIELDERS

Kevin De Bruyne, MCI vs. RBL ($9,200): On most Champions League slates, we roster De Bruyne without much hesitation, but this one is a bit different for a couple of reasons. The main reason is opportunity cost. It's difficult to afford him if you're rostering two of the PSG forwards, not to mention if you want to pay for Trent Alexander-Arnold ($8,000) at defense. The other reason is that De Bruyne has battled injuries and has played only 11 minutes this season, so we could see him subbed early. He'll be less popular than usual in tournaments and that makes him intriguing because he still has big ceiling potential in 70 minutes; we saw it multiple times last season. If De Bruyne doesn't end up starting, I'd have interest in Ilkay Gundogan ($5,700) based on his cheap salary, role on set pieces and propensity to score goals in these spots. 

Luka Modric, RMA at INT ($5,200): Modric is expected to take the majority of Real Madrid's set pieces in the absence of Toni Kroos. The matchup might not seem great on paper, but Inter have been conceding goals recently and Modric is too cheap for his new role. Kroos would be $7,000 in this spot. Comparing him with others in this range, if Steven Berghuis isn't in the lineup, Ryan Gravenberch ($5,400) would take the majority of corners for Ajax, but there isn't much upside in his defensive role. Ruud Vormer ($5,200) takes set pieces for Club Brugge but the matchup against PSG isn't ideal. 

Nuno Santos, LIS vs. AJX ($3,300): Affording the PSG forwards is much easier if you roster someone in this range. Santos scored a goal and took three of five corner kicks over the weekend. That salary is much too cheap for an attacking player with a role on set pieces. Other tournament options include Charles De Ketelaere ($4,000) and Noa Lang ($3,500). Both are highly-rated, young attackers and we saw them score goals for Brugge in the Champions League last season. At home to PSG is tough, but their popularity should reflect that and the Parisians don't keep many clean sheets. 

DEFENDERS

Andrew Robertson, LIV vs. MIL ($5,800): Robertson's teammate, Trent Alexander-Arnold ($8,000), is the best defender on the slate from a raw points perspective, but the fact that he's $2,200 more expensive makes Robertson more appealing. Alexander-Arnold's price is appropriate for his normal level of production, but Liverpool are facing AC Milan, not Norwich City. Regardless, I'd normally still roster him, but with so much to spend for at other positions, this seems like the spot to save. Not usually a contrarian option, Joao Cancelo ($6,000) could offer leverage for tournaments. He's averaging over 11 floor points in four games this season and scored goals for City in every competition last year. 

Pedro Porro, LIS vs. AJX ($4,000): Porro is an exciting 22-year old, on loan from Manchester City, who's been playing right wing-back and taking some corners for Sporting Lisbon. $4,000 is too cheap for a player with open play and set-piece value in a neutral matchup at home to Ajax. His teammate Ruben Vinagre ($3,100) is another appealing option, both for his role at left wing-back and for the salary savings that will be important.

GOALKEEPERS

Ederson, MCI vs. RBL ($5,700): I don't think this is a slate to spend up at keeper because of the salary needed elsewhere, but if I was going to do so, Ederson seems safest. People have different views on this spot, but Manchester City's dominance in possession is what I look for when rostering an expensive keeper. They give up few clear-cut chances. Atletico Madrid are favorites in the game with the lowest total, so you could make an argument for Jan Oblak ($5,600) in this range as well. 

Diogo Costa, POR at ATL ($4,300): The only reason for highlighting Costa here is that the matchup against Atletico Madrid has the lowest total on the slate. Mike Maignan ($4,100) has more save upside away to Liverpool, while Simon Mignolet ($3,600) has the most save upside at home to PSG and can even be rostered opposite Messi or Neymar.