Red hot Brighton look to book their trip to the FA Cup semifinals when they host Nottingham Forest at the Amex on Saturday.
Brighton have won six of their last seven matches and are in the race for a spot in the Champions League next season. While this run has been great, the last time they lost was to Nottingham Forest and it was their worst performance of the season. Nottingham Forest hammered them 7-0, so they will hope to turn the tides this time to get through to the semifinals.
Forest are sitting in third place in the Premier League table and have a chance to make this dream season even better with a trip to the FA Cup semifinals. The Trees continue to defy the odds playing a completely different style than everyone else around them in the table. In addition to beating Brighton 7-0, they also drew them 2-2 earlier in the season, which will give them a lot of confidence heading into this fixture.
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FA Cup Best Bets for Brighton vs. Nottingham Forest
Betting on Anytime Goalscorer
Forest had seven goals from 3.3 expected goals in that previous meeting with Brighton and that's more or less what they've been doing all season.
Nottingham Forest are an old-school football team. They put a huge emphasis on a solid low block, taking advantage of counterattacks while being efficient on set pieces. A massive part of their offense working is having a target man like Chris Wood, but he's out for this match.
That means Taiwo Awoniyi will be leading the line. The Nigerian hasn't gotten much playing time this season, but over his past two seasons with Forest, he's averaged 0.42 xG per 90 minutes.
I like the value on him to score in this match at +250.
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Betting on Anytime Assist
Nottingham Forest have been effective in their transition breaks because they have elite ball carriers and progressors like Morgan Gibbs-White and Elliot Anderson.
When playing a low block, transitioning from that deep space can be difficult. Having those two has been crucial and they've been productive at getting the ball into the opponent's final third.
Gibbs-White specifically has been productive in terms of dishing out assists. He has seven on the season and is leading Forest in both passes that lead to a shot and passes that lead to a goal.
Brighton love to press high and counterpress aggressively, so Nottingham Forest will have their chances in transition.
I like the value on Gibbs-White to have an assist in this match at +700.
Betting on Game Spread
Brighton had numerous difficulties breaking down Nottingham Forest's low block in the previous meeting, which isn't surprising since they've struggled against low blocks all season.
Fabian Hurzeler's tactics are often reliant on baiting the other team into pressing so they can send direct balls to the forwards who are in one-on-one situations against the back line. When a team like Nottingham Forest don't press them and sit back, and do so better than most clubs in the world, they sort of run out of options.
It's no surprise that during this positive run of results that Brighton is played mainly teams that press high up the pitch. They did beat Fulham 2-1, but only ended up creating 0.66 expected goals from open play in that match.
I think Brighton is going to struggle again, so I like the value on Nottingham Forest +0.5 at +103.
Brighton vs. Nottingham Forest Betting Picks, Saturday FA Cup Semifinal
- Taiwo Awoniyi Anytime Goalscorer (+250)
- Morgan Gibbs-White Anytime Assist (+700)
- Nottingham Forest +0.5 (+103)
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