This article is part of our FPL Bargain Bin series.
May 16 is going to be an emotional day for many Liverpool fans. Steven Gerrard will be playing his final match at Anfield as a member of the Reds. He currently sits on 119 career goals with Liverpool, the only club he has ever known. However, do not expect that number to remain the same as he makes his departure to MLS.
Over 45,000 people will be well aware of the situation Saturday evening, and that includes the 22 players on the field for the game. What better way to bid farewell to one of the club's biggest stars than to see him score and then get a standing ovation as he is subbed off later in the match? RotoWire colleague, Mike Gottlieb, smartly points out that this is nothing more than narrative and there is no sound backing to predicting a goal on speculation like this.
@EPL_MOstradamus@RotoWireAndrew Chasing.Narrative.
— Mike Gottlieb (@SportsByGotti) May 14, 2015
But sometimes narrative matters. Things have to fall in place, and when they do, narratives fall in place.
Back before the outcome of MLB All-Star games "mattered," the game was a pure exhibition to showcase baseball's biggest names. All-time great, Cal Ripken Jr., was playing in his final All-Star Game and proceeded to do this:
Fast forward just six months and we get to the final week of the NFL season. Michael Strahan was in the hunt for the single-season sack record during a meaningless game against the Green Bay Packers (Green Bay had already locked up a wild card spot and New York was out of the playoffs). With under three minutes to play, Strahan found himself alone in the backfield with Brett Favre and this happened:
Sure it is all speculation and drummed up narrative to say the opposing players gifted opportunities to Ripken and Strahan, but they still happened. Saturday, Liverpool will host Crystal Palace in Gerrard's final home match with next-to-nothing on the line. The Reds are already locked into a Europa League spot (for them to miss out on Europa they have to drop to seventh and Arsenal have to lose in the FA Cup final to Aston Villa) and Crystal Palace has already secured a Premier League spot for next season. It is hard not to envision Liverpool letting Gerrard go for a goal most of the match against an Eagles squad with nothing to play for.
Ok, so maybe Mike is right. This is 100 percent narrative. But to steal another phrase from the RotoWire Fantasy Soccer Podcast Host, "…facts aren't going to get in the way of my opinion (or narrative)." Since coming back from his three-match suspension, only Philippe Coutihno has attempted more shots and no one has more than Gerrard's two goals. All this while only playing in three of the four matches. He is playing some of his best football in recent weeks.
Add on the fact that his opponent is very foul prone. Crystal Palace averages more fouls than any other team in the Premier League. Fouls lead to penalties and penalties lead to Gerrard attempting penalty kicks.
There are three truths in life: death, taxes,and Gerrard scoring in his final match at Anfield. The narrative is certainly nice, but there are also plenty of stats that point to this being a great opportunity, and none of these even account for Gerrard's extra motivation.
As for the other ten games this weekend (Arsenal and Sunderland have a double gameweek), here is the rest of the Gameweek 37 Bargain Bin:
Goalkeeper
Robert Green
Queens Park Rangers may not have anything to play for, but it is Newcastle that is playing like it. The Toons have not scored an away goal since February and are falling down the table at the wrong time. They rank 17th out of the 20 Premier League teams in goals, shots and shots on target in away matches this season, and they currently look like a team that would be worse. For all the fun we have had picking players hosting QPR this season, they have actually played well at home. Look for Green to keep his seventh clean sheet of the season, and his sixth at home.
Defender
Hector Bellerin
The trip to Old Trafford is not the best matchup for a defender, but luckily for Bellerin, Arsenal has a second match to play this gameweek. The focus on Bellerin should start with the two or three points he will get for playing against Manchester United, but then go right to the nice home match against Sunderland. For as bad as Newcastle has been on the road this season, Sunderland has not been much better. The Black Cats average less than a goal per game away from the Stadium of Light and have scored just one goal in their last five trips to the Emirates. Bank the points from the weekend match and combine them with a likely clean sheet against Sunderland in the double gameweek.
Midfielder
Leroy Fer
As bad as Newcastle has been offensively during their five-match away goalless streak, they have been even worse defensively. They have allowed a total of 14 goals in those five matches. To put things into perspective, the worst team in the league in terms of away goals allowed per match is QPR at 2.4. Newcastle's run has been nearly half-a-goal worse during the stretch at 2.8.
Despite missing nine matches this season, only one QPR player has scored more goals than Fer. Since returning from injury three matches ago, Fer's seven shots and one goal both lead the club. Queens Park Rangers should score multiple goals against Newcastle, which would give Fer a great chance to net one himself.
Forward
Enner Valencia
Both Harry Kane and Charlie Austin cost less than Valencia and both are better plays. But it feels obvious to include them in the Bargain Bin, so we'll go one step further. Valencia's numbers are not all that impressive lately. Factor in how different he looks without Diafra Sakho or Andy Carroll up front with him and it might be easy to write Valencia off. However, it has been a tough run of matches for West Ham. When at home, they have played difficult defenses, and on the road is never as easy as at home. This week will be a little different. Everton have been surprisingly porous away from Goodison Park this season. Through 18 road matches, only four teams have allowed more goals than Everton's 28. With Sakho out, no active player has as many shots on target for West Ham as Valencia. He's been the focal point of the Hammers' attack, which could mean good things against a weak Everton defense this weekend.
