Liga MX: Saturday Cheat Sheet

Liga MX: Saturday Cheat Sheet

This article is part of our Daily Fantasy Soccer Cheat Sheet series.

MATCHES (EDT)

6:00 p.m: Cruz Azul v. Club Tijuana
8:00 p.m: Tigres v. Chiapas
8:00 p.m: Monarcas v. Atlas
8:06 p.m: Leon v. Monterrey
10:00 p.m: Guadalajara v. Queretaro
10:00 p.m: Necaxa v. Pumas

ODDS REPORT

EXPECTED CORNER TAKERS

Cruz Azul: Joffre Guerron
Tijuana: Victor Malcorra
Morelia: Carlos Adrian Morales
Atlas: Luis Reyes
Tigres: Ismael Sosa
Chiapas: Alonso Escoboza
Leon: Elias Hernandez
Monterrey: Walter Ayovi
Guadalajara: Nestor Calderon
Queretaro: Yerson Candelo
Necaxa: Luis Gallegos
Pumas: Javier Cortes

PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS

Prices listed below are from DraftKings.

GOALKEEPER

Marcelo Barovero, NEC vs. PUM ($4,200): As I highlighted last week, the DraftKings pricing algorithm has been incredibly slow to pick up on the new goalkeeper additions and I am prepared to keep picking on this until the opportunity dries up. Unfortunately for Barovero, goal support is sitting at a perfect zero as Necaxa has failed to score through their first three games, but Barovero has been brilliant, conceding just once. The matchup against third-place Pumas seems daunting at first, but this a new 'defense first' squad; they've scored just twice in their three games and have not scored a goal as the away team in any competition since April. There are four goalkeepers who have not played this season priced higher than Barovero at home with his 0.33 goals allowed per game.

DEFENDER

Adrian Aldrete, CRZ vs. TIJ ($4,800): Luckily for us, Aldrete is coming off a bad-enough fantasy week that game-log watchers may be scared. I like this matchup against Xolos more

MATCHES (EDT)

6:00 p.m: Cruz Azul v. Club Tijuana
8:00 p.m: Tigres v. Chiapas
8:00 p.m: Monarcas v. Atlas
8:06 p.m: Leon v. Monterrey
10:00 p.m: Guadalajara v. Queretaro
10:00 p.m: Necaxa v. Pumas

ODDS REPORT

EXPECTED CORNER TAKERS

Cruz Azul: Joffre Guerron
Tijuana: Victor Malcorra
Morelia: Carlos Adrian Morales
Atlas: Luis Reyes
Tigres: Ismael Sosa
Chiapas: Alonso Escoboza
Leon: Elias Hernandez
Monterrey: Walter Ayovi
Guadalajara: Nestor Calderon
Queretaro: Yerson Candelo
Necaxa: Luis Gallegos
Pumas: Javier Cortes

PLAYER RECOMMENDATIONS

Prices listed below are from DraftKings.

GOALKEEPER

Marcelo Barovero, NEC vs. PUM ($4,200): As I highlighted last week, the DraftKings pricing algorithm has been incredibly slow to pick up on the new goalkeeper additions and I am prepared to keep picking on this until the opportunity dries up. Unfortunately for Barovero, goal support is sitting at a perfect zero as Necaxa has failed to score through their first three games, but Barovero has been brilliant, conceding just once. The matchup against third-place Pumas seems daunting at first, but this a new 'defense first' squad; they've scored just twice in their three games and have not scored a goal as the away team in any competition since April. There are four goalkeepers who have not played this season priced higher than Barovero at home with his 0.33 goals allowed per game.

DEFENDER

Adrian Aldrete, CRZ vs. TIJ ($4,800): Luckily for us, Aldrete is coming off a bad-enough fantasy week that game-log watchers may be scared. I like this matchup against Xolos more than others seem to, and I'm not scared off by their league-high goal total. Aldrete sends in crosses, plays with discipline and wins tackles. He doesn't need to do much to smash value and get you some expensive forwards.

Carlos Alberto Guzman, LEO vs. MNT ($4,200): Leon has been the surprise of the league so far, but for all the wrong reasons. They have looked out of sorts and can't seem to get out of their own way, however, they looked much better in the pouring rain last week; just unable to overcome the horrendous playing conditions and destroyed pitch. Monterrey has not looked like the team that dominated the last tournament either, and Guzman is just way too cheap considering the upside he brings. He doesn't need a clean sheet to get near his ceiling.

Hugo Ayala, TIG vs. CHI ($4,100): The Olympics provide a good source of value when consideration the 'addition by subtraction' rule. With Jorge Torres Nilo in Rio, Ayala will receive more of the responsibility in the center, and he should have a much improved week in the tackles won and interceptions columns, not to mention the clean sheet bonus because you didn't think Chiapas were going to score, did you?

MIDFIELDER

When you take a quick look at the top of the board, you will see why Saturday has the potential to be a very fun slate. Just as an overview, Elias Hernandez ($13,800) will require you to sink almost 30 percent of your salary into a player that has been subbed off early twice, only put one shot on net and has yet to hit double-digit crosses. Monterrey is a big underdog on the road against Leon, which takes the unimpressive Carlos Sanchez ($11,600) out of play at that price, while teammate Edwin Cardona ($9,400) has been on the field for fewer than 50 minutes total this tournament and similarly-priced Carlos Cisneros ($9,300) of Chivas is representing Mexico at the Olympics.

Nestor Calderon, GUA vs. QUE ($5,900): Using the absence of Cisneros, we have no choice but assume a boost in production for Calderon. He should be taking over most of Cisneros' responsibility, which bodes well for his production given he hit 10 crosses in his last game. I actually prefer the over in this matchup, though Vegas currently expects fewer than 2.5 goals, which may make this a sneaky game to look at. Calderon has seen his time on the field increase in every game, and he should control the pace of the attack.

Joffre Guerron, CRZ vs. TIJ ($4,100): If I had to pick a team not called Tigres to get a win Saturday, I would be very interested in Cruz Azul. Although small, they are the only other team that is a favorite on the three way money-line, and still they lack the big names that drive pricing up. Guerron is a perfect example of a serviceable daily fantasy player: he goes so unnoticed that even smashing value last week doesn't affect his price. He will probably be subbed off, but so far he has provided the shots and crosses that we need to pay off his salary; any more assists or goals are just a bonus at this point.

Diego Valdes, MOR vs. ATL ($4,000): Everything said above about Guerron applies for Valdes. I am giving Morelia a better chance to win this match than the oddsmakers are, which should drive down ownership of their attacking players, and all Valdes needs to do is be relevant in order to hit value. Spending up at forward should be the play, and by going cheap with Valdes you get a safe floor with 20-point upside; after all, he's hot right now with goals in consecutive games.

FORWARD

Andre-Pierre Gignac, TIG vs. CHI ($12,300): After spending all last season complaining about how expensive Gignac was, I now start to find myself thinking he might be too cheap. Tigres looked much improved last week with an impressive road victory over America, and the new additions seem to finally be coming together. This is perfect timing, as Chiapas pay a visit. Tigres are a -265 favorite and Chiapas have lost their last five road matches and conceded at least twice in all of them. Gignac should romp through the weak back line to the tune of a multi-goal game.

Alonso Escoboza, CHI at TIG ($5,800): The great thing about daily fantasy sports is that you can fall in love with a player based on how easily his team should win, and then look across the field at a poor team and still find players you'd like to roster. I have talked Chiapas down since the first whistle blow, but Escoboza is proving to be a bright spot. He is energetic and creative, and this is translating into a near-elite DraftKings floor. He notched the lone goal against Toluca last week, and while this is a road match against a team that has yet to concede, look no further than the first two weeks of the season, where Escoboza hit double-digit crosses and averaged 15 DraftKings points without any goals or assists.

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Chris Henne
Chris is a former soccer player turned soccer handicapper and daily fantasy sports player. He's currently pursuing a PhD.
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