This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Don't forget to check out our weekly soccer betting show Kits & Wagers, which covers Premier League betting every week of the season. This week the lads look at some massive matchups from the Merseyside derby to Manchester United hosting Arsenal.
This week has been extremely busy and I can't focus 100 percent due to a minor case of COVID-19, but you better believe I'm still ready to give winners. I've hit a parlay each of the first five gameweeks and I don't care if I jinx it. Winning five parlays in a row simply doesn't happen, especially since they're all around even odds. Let's make it six.
Record: 13-8-1. Up $429 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Merseyside derby, Liverpool at Everton
Everton +1 versus Liverpool at +130
I think Everton are underrated in this spot and I'm taking the easy way out with this bet. I wanted +1.5 but that's moved to -145 odds, so I'm stuck with +1. That means if Everton lose by one goal you get your money back. I hate suggesting bets where a push is possible, but I'm not ready to take Everton double chance (+200) just yet.
If you remove the 9-0 win over Bournemouth for Liverpool, I think the odds would be more in Everton's favor. Because if you remove that match, the Reds haven't looked all that convincing this season and probably should have three draws in addition to the loss at Manchester United.
While Everton have had an easier schedule, they've noticeably been battling in every match and I think new signings will give them another boost. There's a chance Neal Maupay starts Saturday and even if he doesn't, I'm not convinced this will be a free win. Liverpool could rotate with Champions League ahead and they just lost another midfield piece in Jordan Henderson. Give me the Toffees.
EPL Best Bets for Leeds at Brentford and Southampton at Wolverhampton
Parlay: Brentford double chance -295 versus Leeds United and Wolves double chance -300 versus Southampton = -128 odds
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I could hand out +500 parlays, but if I don't truly think they're going to hit then what's the point? Instead, I've been going with two things that are favored to hit and I put them together. That's worked to start the season and that's where I'm going here.
I hate betting Southampton matches, but Wolves are back home and I don't see them losing this match. While the wins aren't coming, they're playing well enough to get three points and it's clear recent signings Matheus Nunes and Goncalo Guedes have been immediate upgrades.
I bet Brentford in their prior two home matches and I'll continue to do so unless the matchup isn't right. This should be a fun match and there's a chance Pontus Jansson returns to the back line, which would be an upgrade over Zanka. I think they can beat Leeds, but I'll play it safe with the double chance on both home sides.
EPL Best Bets for Crystal Palace at Newcastle
Under 2.5 goals between Newcastle and Crystal Palace -124
This bet may be the one I trust least in this article. I still like it, but Newcastle like to press and rush teams at home, which can often lead to goals. Fortunately, Crystal Palace are not Man City and I don't think this one will get out of hand. I think it's most likely that after one team scores, the other is going to push back and I don't think that second goal is guaranteed. I view this matchup similar to the Brentford and Palace one which finished 1-1. Palace got an incredible goal from Wilfried Zaha and then sat back, ending in a late equalizer. I think Newcastle have the edge playing at home and each team's style of play should lead to a match with minimal quality chances.
EPL Best Bets for Bournemouth at Nottingham Forest
Nottingham Forest to beat Bournemouth +105
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I was heavy on Bournemouth and the under in their midweek match and that came to fruition. However, they played not to lose and that's not going to work in every match. I think this is a clear, low-scoring match with the home side having the edge. While it doesn't matter because rosters are a bit different, both meetings between these teams last season were fairly defensive, the most recent one ending 1-0. I think under 2.5 goals at -130 is worth a look and I strongly considered 'No' on both teams to score at +100.
Instead, I'll turn to Forest to win. I don't trust either team to score, but Bournemouth are only playing with fire if they hope to win every match 1-0. Even though they got a point against Wolves, they were outplayed and a bit lucky to have not allowed a goal. I don't think they'll have that luck away from home, which is why I like Forest. If you agree with me, you can get Forest at +600 to win 1-0.
EPL Best Bets for Wolves at Bournemouth
Parlay: Brighton double chance -425 versus Leicester City and Man United double chance -220 versus Arsenal = -127 odds
I felt like I needed at least one bet for Sunday and that turned into another parlay. I can definitely see Leicester City screwing me in this spot, but Brighton have been suffocating at home and I'm not sure a struggling attack will work against them.
As for Manchester United, they've found somewhat of an identity, which has resulted in just one goal allowed across three matches. That being the case, I'm taking them because Arsenal already have a multitude of injuries and losing captain Martin Odegaard to injury may be the worst of them. I'm not sold on Man United overall, but this matchup is in their favor given injuries.
EPL Betting Picks Gameweek 6
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- Everton +1 versus Liverpool at +130
- Parlay: Brentford double chance -295 versus Leeds United and Wolves double chance -300 versus Southampton = -128 odds
- Under 2.5 goals between Newcastle and Crystal Palace -124
- Nottingham Forest to beat Bournemouth +105
- Parlay: Brighton double chance -425 versus Leicester City and Man United double chance -220 versus Arsenal = -127 odds
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.
