This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Don't forget to check out our weekly soccer betting show Kits & Wagers, which covers Premier League betting every week of the season. This week the lads touch on Manchester City versus Tottenham, as well as the return of Monday Night Football between Leeds and Nottingham Forest.
It hasn't been seven days since Gameweek 6 ended, but Chelsea lost in Champions League and sacked Thomas Tuchel the following morning. Liverpool were blown out by Napoli, though Jurgen Klopp is still in charge. Manchester City and Arsenal were the other two teams who travelled for UEFA play, but as usual, it'll be hard to project rotation in league play.
The good news is that my parlay is rolling. I was so confident last week that I took two parlays and both of them hit. Well done.
Record: 17-9-1. Up $697 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Wolverhampton at Liverpool
Under 2.5 goals between Liverpool and Wolverhampton +150
I wrote this bet down before Liverpool looked incompetent at the back in Wednesday's loss at Napoli. I still believe in it, mainly because there's almost no chance Joe Gomez will start after making blunder after blunder in the loss to Napoli. Joel Matip is healthy again and should partner Virgil van Dijk against a side that has struggled to score for many seasons. Either way, I think the Wolves midfield may have an advantage in this matchup given the injuries to Liverpool and that will be enough to tame the Reds at Anfield. The odds suggest Liverpool are in form and scoring in bunches, which they are not. I'd also consider Liverpool to win to nil if you can find it, though a lot of sportsbooks no longer offer it.
EPL Best Bets for Aston Villa at Leicester City and Brentford at Southampton
Parlay: Aston Villa double chance -185 versus Leicester City and Brentford double chance -165 versus Southampton = +147 odds
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I'm putting my parlay streak on the line with a couple possibly crazy double chance plays. I still think Aston Villa are a solid side and they'll figure things out, something they somewhat did against Man City last match. No matter, Leicester City are a bit of a mess and with the transfer window closed, there's nothing they can do to boost their back line or confidence outside of banking on newcomer Wout Faes. Villa have a better overall squad and I think they can get a point in this spot, as their early troubles have been scoring, something that may not be an issue at Leicester.
Taking Brentford away is a bit more risky, but I don't think Southampton have a huge edge at home and they're always in play to allow last-minute goals due to poor defense against set pieces. I'm taking Brentford mainly because I think Southampton are still getting a little too much love after their win against Chelsea. While betting on two away sides in a parlay is dumb, I don't think Leicester nor Southampton have massive advantages on their home pitch.
EPL Best Bets for Brentford at Southampton
Over 2.5 goals between Brentford and Southampton -122
If you don't want to bet Brentford away, you could get better odds on the over. I'm surprised it's close to even money between these teams, as neither has shown much consistency defensively. I like Brentford more with Pontus Jansson, yet their back line always seems to let up if the matchup isn't right and Southampton will get chances. Southampton have been playing a bit more defensive and it's working for them to an extent, but I think the absence of Romeo Lavia (and Oriol Romeu) is going to cost them in upcoming contests. I also like the odds difference, as both teams to score is -160.
EPL Best Bets for West Ham at Newcastle
Under 2.5 goals between Newcastle and West Ham at -110
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This match is hard to read and I'm writing this before West Ham's match Thursday, but they've focused a little more on keeping teams out rather than scoring themselves of late. They've had a slow start and sometimes that's the best move to earn points, even if they were unlucky to lose against Chelsea last match. Newcastle aren't at full strength and aren't the same team away, but I think West Ham's poor form mixed with how Newcastle want to play will result in a tight game. Neither side has a massive advantage and I think it has 1-1 written all over it (+550). Instead of that, I'll grab almost even odds on under 2.5 goals.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester United at Crystal Palace
Crystal Palace Draw No Bet versus Manchester United +150
This is a tough spot for Manchester United. They returned to European competition this week against Real Sociedad and now travel to face a tricky Crystal Palace side. They are slowly learning how to play under Erik ten Hag and it's leading to wins, yet I think the extra rest for Palace will be a benefit in this spot. I'd go with the simple double chance, but it's at -145 so I'm taking the lame Draw No Bet option at +150. I think Palace have enough to win at home, but I'll still get my money back if it's a draw. Palace are a good home side and as long as they don't make mistakes in the back, similar to recent Man United opponents, they'll be in play for three points. Of note, Man United are one of the more public teams and you can usually get better odds if you're taking their opponent closer to match time.
EPL Betting Picks Gameweek 7
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- Under 2.5 goals between Liverpool and Wolverhampton +150
- Parlay: Aston Villa double chance -185 versus Leicester City and Brentford double chance -165 versus Southampton = +147 odds
- Over 2.5 goals between Brentford and Southampton -122
- Under 2.5 goals between Newcastle and West Ham at -110
- Crystal Palace Draw No Bet versus Manchester United +150
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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