This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
Don't forget to check out our weekly soccer betting show Kits & Wagers, which covers Premier League betting every week of the season. This week the lads bet on under-the-radar matchups and give their Team Parlay of the week.
I thought I was headed for better things last week, but two marquee games got away from me. I had a good feeling Newcastle would play Manchester City tight, I just didn't think they'd try to match them in the attack. I also misread the form and cohesion of Liverpool, which is clearly a problem. While I still managed a positive return in Gameweek 3, it wasn't as much as I hoped. Fortunately (or maybe unfortunately), the schedule is about to pick up with tons of midweek matches. A lot of teams played this midweek in the Carabao Cup, though there was plenty of rotation ahead of Gameweek 4.
Record: 9-5. Up $406 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Leicester City at Chelsea and Fulham at Arsenal
Parlay: Arsenal moneyline -320 versus Fulham and Chelsea moneyline -255 versus Leicester = -122 odds
I have to keep my word and continue to give a parlay until it loses. I was originally going to pass, but I think I trust Chelsea just enough in this spot. It's mainly because Mateo Kovacic could return to the XI for the first time this season, a position where Chelsea struggled in the loss to Leeds. It's a perfect rebound spot against a Leicester side that is struggling even more than Chelsea. The Foxes managed a paltry .29 expected goals in the home loss to Southampton and couldn't score midweek at Stockport County despite starting a lot of regulars.
As for Arsenal, they're maybe playing the best of anyone in the league and I think they're a lock to win. Fulham haven't played terribly, but I think this matchup will expose some of their flaws, something the prior three haven't done.
EPL Best Bets for Crystal Palace at Manchester City
Crystal Palace +2 at Manchester City +100
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This is the bet everyone wants. There's a chance I'm a week too late and Manchester City bounce back in a huge win against Crystal Palace. In fact, there's a good chance that happens, hence the odds. However, I'm a big Palace backer, at least for now and especially so since Wilfried Zaha remains in the Golden Boot hunt (I have him at +10000). Most relevant is that Palace battled in two matchups with Man City last season, winning 2-0 at City in October and securing a scoreless draw at home in March. Sure, they were aided by a red card in one match and Man City had 3.05 expected goals in the scoreless draw, but I believe in Patrick Vieira in this matchup.
I also saw Allan Saint-Maximin cause problems for Kyle Walker last game and can envision something similar for Zaha and Michael Olise on the wings. This isn't the smartest bet I've made, but I think Palace has the confidence to get a point in this spot, and sometimes confidence is enough.
EPL Best Bets for Everton at Brentford
Brentford moneyline +105 versus Everton
Brentford moneyline at +105 is available at BetMGM. If you haven't signed up yet, you can use the BetMGM bonus code ROTOBONUS for a risk-free bet.
This might be my favorite match of the weekend, though that's not usually a good thing for betting. Still, I think Brentford are being overlooked at home where they convincingly beat Manchester United. Going further, if you remove the Leeds finale at the end of last season that didn't matter for them, they've held Southampton, Tottenham, West Ham and Burnley scoreless in their prior four home matches. Throw in Everton, who can't score and lost 13 matches away from home last season, and it's a recipe for success.
It doesn't make sense that Brentford are +105 to win in this spot. Everton barely got a point at home against Nottingham Forest last weekend and there's a chance Anthony Gordon isn't on their team come the weekend. If you want other avenues, 'No' on both teams to score is +100 and Brentford to win to nil is around +225. The more I look at it, the more I think this match is rigged. There's a chance these numbers are based heavily off the last meeting when Brentford won 3-2 in what was a pretty crazy game that involved two Everton red cards. No matter, Thomas Frank recently came out and said his team needs to play better defensively and I'm riding the home team in this spot.
EPL Best Bets for Newcastle at Wolverhampton
'No' on both Wolves and Newcastle to score at +104
Either I'm wildly misreading everything or there are a lot of traps this weekend. Wolves are normally known for having odds of -170 for under 2.5 goals, yet this one is -140 against a mostly stout Newcastle back line. When these teams met in April at Newcastle, Wolves managed just .30 expected goals. I know they looked better at Tottenham and they have some fresh talent with the return of injured Raul Jimenez, but I'm not positive this team is ready to score in bunches. Even better, Callum Wilson is injured and Newcastle aren't nearly as lethal away from home. I think both teams are in play for a clean sheet in this spot and with the 'No' on both teams to score, it doesn't matter who gets the 1-0 win. It's another match where the odds seem off and I'll take the plunge anyway with the hope it's not a trap by the oddsmakers.
EPL Best Bets for Tottenham at Nottingham Forest
'No' on both Nottingham Forest and Tottenham to score at -115
Nottingham Forest were a bit lucky to get a full three points in their home opener, though some would say they deserved it in the end. I'm still unsure what kind of team they'll be after adding an entire bench worth of signings. The return of Steve Cook and Ryan Yates definitely helps with familiarity from last season, though I'm not sure what it'll mean in this matchup. A lot of those new signings played a full 90 in their midweek Cup win. This is arguably the toughest team Forest have faced this season and that's not usually a good thing with guys like Son Heung-Min and Harry Kane on the other side.
I think Forest will try to keep this match a scoreless draw and when possible take opportunities on the counter. However, I still have doubts about their attack and for the most part, Tottenham have been good in the back. That leads me to another 'No' on both teams to score at almost even odds. I'd rather take this route than the under 2.5 goals at +110 in the chance Tottenham get a goal early and run away with it. It's either that or I'm scared with taking unders in these kinds of matchups after what Newcastle-Man City just did to me.
EPL Betting Picks Gameweek 4
- Parlay: Arsenal moneyline -320 versus Fulham and Chelsea moneyline -255 versus Leicester = -122 odds
- Crystal Palace +2 at Manchester City +100
- Brentford moneyline +105 versus Everton
- 'No' on both Wolves and Newcastle to score at +104
- 'No' on both Nottingham Forest and Tottenham to score at -115
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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