This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It's all downhill from here. Last week may have been my peak in terms of betting on the Premier League. I read every match almost too well and that led to a lot of winning bets. That definitely won't continue, especially in a week with a lot of tight numbers, but there are still some sides to focus on.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris discuss a couple derbies and one relegation battle on their betting show.
Record: 44-30-1. Up $1,626 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Aston Villa at Southampton
Southampton most corners first half against Aston Villa -105
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While the results show different, I haven't been that impressed by Aston Villa since the World Cup break. According to the numbers, they've been outplayed in the first half of their last four league matches. Some of that has to do with when goals are scored, but even though they scored in the third minute against Leeds, that doesn't mean they should be on the back foot the final 30 minutes of the half.
Southampton have won three straight including Cup play and while I still don't trust them, they're at home and riding plenty of confidence. That's enough to get me on Southampton most corners in the first half at -105.
Southampton unfortunately produced my only losing bet last week when James Ward-Prowse took a last-second, first-half corner, something I'll hope they do again in this match.
EPL Best Bets for Newcastle at Crystal Palace
'No' on both teams to score between Crystal Palace and Newcastle -110
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I think this match will go fairly similar to the midweek one where Palace snuck in a late set-piece goal to draw Manchester United 1-1. Palace's best chances were something out of nothing and I'm not sure how much that changes against defensively sound Newcastle, who have allowed two goals in their last five trips.
However, since under 2.5 goals is -140, I'm going to 'No' on both teams to score at -110. Similar to that midweek match, I think a 1-0 win for either side is in play and the hope is that a late equalizer doesn't kill this bet.
There's been zero goals in two meetings between these sides this season (Cup match went to PKs) and I'll be surprised if this one turns into a back-and-forth thriller.
EPL Best Bets for Brentford at Leeds United
Both teams to score no draw between Brentford and Leeds United +130
Brentford have always been a nervy away team and when you combine that with a Leeds side that seems to always make a defensive mistake, there should be goals. When these teams met in September, there were three goals in the first half of a 5-2 result and neither team really cared to defend.
While Brentford have been great out of the World Cup break, I think there's a chance this one ruins their decent run of defensive performances. They have a negative six goal differential away from home, including the 2-0 win at West Ham a couple weeks ago when they didn't allow a goal from 20 shots.
Leeds scored five midweek and should at least be confident with a mostly healthy roster, as Patrick Bamford and Luis Sinisterra are both in the fold again.
Of course, the odds also imply goals with over 2.5 at -145, so I'm looking elsewhere and since I'm not confident in either side winning, I'm stuck in a hole. That leads me to 'Yes' on both teams to score and no draw at +130. It's always a hard bet to win, but I think either side could win in a 2-1 or 3-2 result.
EPL Best Bets for Tottenham at Fulham and Manchester United at Arsenal
Parlay: Arsenal double chance against Manchester United -425 and Fulham double chance against Tottenham -145 = +108
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I did a similar parlay last week and both double chance teams won their respective matches. I think that could happen again, but I'm playing it safe in a couple marquee contests. I like Arsenal to win at -115, so if you're not confident in Fulham, take that bet. Arsenal are playing well and are even better at home, so I'll take them against a side without their best midfielder.
It's slightly different for Fulham, but they're healthy and at home, two things that could be enough to take a point from Tottenham. Both of Fulham's home losses this season came without their regular back line, something that isn't a problem in this matchup. While Tottenham are better with Rodrigo Bentancur on the pitch, I'm not sure what his fitness level will be following 90 minutes Thursday against Manchester City.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 21
- Southampton most corners first half against Aston Villa -105
- 'No' on both teams to score between Crystal Palace and Newcastle -110
- Both teams to score no draw between Brentford and Leeds United +130
- Parlay: Arsenal double chance against Manchester United -425 and Fulham double chance against Tottenham -145 = +108
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
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