This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
My record for the season remains in the positive, but I've been about a .500 bettor since the World Cup break. Even though I projected a lot of the matches correctly last week, some of my bets just didn't hit. With the transfer window closed and the manager situation seemingly set, the end of the season will hopefully be as frugal as the beginning.
Looking for more Premier League bets? Check out Kits & Wagers where Adam and Chris discuss three matches, including Monday's Merseyside derby.
Record: 47-35-1. Up $1,395 on $100 bets.
EPL Best Bets for Tottenham at Leicester City
Both teams to score no draw between Leicester and Tottenham +135
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It's hard not to like goals in this match and that's why over 2.5 is -140. Since I'm a man of the people and rarely bet anything worse than -130, I'm turning to one of my least favorite bets for this matchup. I think the odds should be closer to -160 for over 2.5 goals, but Tottenham have three-straight clean sheets, which is swaying the numbers a bit.
However, I think those clean sheets were more about matchups and they won't have suspended Cristian Romero for this game. There's been at least four goals in each of the last four meetings between these sides. It's all about management and how these teams play, as both kind of prefer to play on the counter. It feels almost certain that Leicester will score first and then the game will be up and down the rest of the way. With James Maddison healthy, Kelechi Iheanacho suddenly relevant again and Tete a nice spark on the wing, I think Leicester can break things open.
I'm not crazy confident in the Foxes, otherwise I'd take them +120 to score first. Instead, it's both teams to score no draw at +135.
EPL Best Bets for Brighton at Crystal Palace
Both teams to score between Crystal Palace and Brighton -125
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Brighton are rightly getting tons of hype, but with the way they play, they often allow great chances to opponents. In fact, they've allowed at least one goal in each of their last eight away matches in league play. Crystal Palace are in need of points having taken just two in their last five and I think they'll welcome the Brighton pressure, leading to a fair amount of chances for both sides.
I've avoided betting Palace many times this season because there doesn't seem to be a rhyme or reason for when they force the pressure or sit back and take it. Even without Wilfried Zaha, they have enough to hit the back of the net (and in turn allow at least one) for both teams to score at -125.
EPL Best Bets for Aston Villa at Manchester City
Both teams to score between Man City and Aston Villa +100
This bet takes some guts because it's saying Manchester City will allow a goal at home, which hasn't happened much this season as they've won nine of 11 home matches in league play. This bet is in my mind because over the years, it feels like the Villa players know they can be competitive in this matchup, as seen in the 1-1 result earlier in this season.
Villa have scored in each of the last four matchups, including last season's Decision Day craziness. Plus, Villa have seemingly been more consistent in the attack under Unai Emery, as they haven't been held scoreless since an October trip to Newcastle (pre-Emery).
City have been in the news for the wrong reasons this week and there's a chance that's always weighing on them in what could be a high-scoring contest if Villa and Ollie Watkins can sneak in a goal or two.
EPL Best Bets for Manchester United at Leeds United
Leeds United double chance against Man United -110
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I know Leeds gave away what looked like three points Wednesday, but it was always going to be hard for them to do that at Old Trafford. And since it's still about even odds to get them on double chance in a rematch a few days later, I have to take it.
There's no question Leeds are better at home and Manchester United are worse away. Without Christian Eriksen and Casemiro in the midfield, that led to a few more opportunities for Leeds last match and I think it could lead to a few more at home. They're a talented team that has struggled to put things together at times, but it seems like the caretaker managers have them playing with passion and that'll show at home. Give me the double chance at -110 and I won't be surprised when they win.
EPL Betting Picks Matchday 23
- Both teams to score no draw between Leicester and Tottenham +135
- Both teams to score between Crystal Palace and Brighton -125
- Both teams to score between Man City and Aston Villa +100
- Leeds United double chance against Man United -110
Adam's Betting History (for this article)
2021: 88-92-8. Up $222 on $100 bets.
2020: 78-91-1. Up $228 on $100 bets.
Visit RotoWire all season for exclusive sports betting picks and our weekly Kits & Wagers betting show. Remember that betting apps vary in terms of odds, so we have an easy-to-use odds page that allows you to shop for the best lines at DraftKings, FanDuel, BetMGM and PointsBet. You can also use the WynnBET promo code for $100 in free bets.