This article is part of our Soccer Picks series.
It's been an incredibly mediocre season, at least in terms of my bets. After 37 weeks of $100 bets, I'm up $111 from 185 picks. That's kind of crazy and it shows just how hot and cold betting can be. I was up $2,158 after the first six weeks and it's been quite a fall from the initial peak. I've had seasons where I started cold and ended hot, that's just how it goes.
On a positive, I've had a bit more success betting futures, which seems to be my forte no matter the sport. I probably made a couple dumb bets here and there in hindsight, but I took Wolves at +330 to finish top 10 back in September along with a crazy Norwich City +250 to finish bottom, which is finishing too close for comfort. While I mentioned Romelu Lukaku to have the most goals at one point, I'm still sitting on under 20.5 goals for Cristiano Ronaldo. Fingers crossed.
Record: 86-91-8. Up $111 on $100 bets.
EPL Gameweek 38 Best Bets
In case you've been missing out, we have a weekly soccer betting podcast called Kits & Wagers. This week, Chris Owen and I gave a bet on all 10 matches Sunday. This article will remain my favorite plays for Gameweek 38, but if you want more suggestions and more action, check out the show.
I don't care if a team needs points and I definitely don't care if Manchester United are favored. From my article two weeks ago when they lost to Brighton: "Manchester United only have two matches left, which means there are only two more chances to bet against them." They've had two weeks of rest, but that doesn't change my feelings on a team who has more losses than wins away from home and a negative goal differential of nine. Crystal Palace have lost just four matches at home this season and while they're on shorter rest, I'm not sure that matters in the first home finale for Patrick Vieira. Palace will come to win and similar to Brighton, I think they have a good shot to win at +205. To be a little safer, I'm taking a different route.
Crystal Palace Draw No Bet +120
There's a chance I'm a little too high on teams who played midweek, but we've learned throughout the season that doesn't always matter, especially in home finales. Southampton haven't exactly shown up since beating Arsenal a month ago and their performance against Liverpool's almost-B squad wasn't inspiring. They've given up multiple goals in each of their last three away matches and as long as Leicester don't completely rotate out guys like Jamie Vardy and James Maddison, I think the home side gets a couple goals and a win. Leicester have won their last two in this matchup at home and have taken points in their last two at Southampton.
Leicester City to beat Southampton -110
It took me a couple rewrites and some extended thinking to get my third bet for this article, but I'm simply taking the easy route of going against who I think is the worst team in the league at this moment. Watford already had their home finale and they just want the season to end. They gave up five goals to Leicester City last weekend and this rotated side isn't at the level needed to play in the Premier League. Chelsea could be rotated, as well, but the difference is that they could be starting Hakim Ziyech and Kai Havertz compared to Samuel Kalu and Ken Sema on the other side. Having lost in two Cup finals in penalty kicks, they'll want to end the season on a positive note and that means a big win. Unless they really rotate, I think a fairly easy win is in the cards as they lock up third place in the table. Of course, this makes it three of three teams who played midweek that I'm betting on. Oh well.