Sorare MLS: Deke's Diamonds GW 479

Sorare MLS: Deke's Diamonds GW 479

This article is part of our Sorare series.

It was a Federico Bernardeschi gameweek as Toronto FC defeated Canadian rivals Montreal 5-1 last weekend. NYCFC won the Hudson River Derby against RBNY 2-1 in a tightly contested match. Both were great showings, but one match might have been the most entertaining I've seen in a long time, as Real Salt Lake came from behind to defeat Colorado 5-3. Colorado went up 2-0, RSL punched back and leveled the match before halftime. Djordje Mihailovic scored shortly after halftime for the Rapids and then RSL scored three straight to get the home victory. Both teams had 10 shots on target and for the neutral fan, it was the match of the first half of the season.

Last Week's Results

Elite Options

GK: Brad Stuver (29.4), Dayne St. Clair (80.1), Matt Freese (51.7)

DF: Kai Wagner (67.06), Malte Amundsen (63.38 - A), Julian Aude (45.8)

MF: Aidan Morris (47.5 - off at halftime), Carles Gil (43.1), Luciano Acosta (100 - G/2A)

FW: Cristian Arango (90.7 - 2G/A), Cucho Hernandez (DNP), Luis Suarez (44.7)

Value Options

GK: Steve Clark (46.8), Zac MacMath (32.1), Drake Callender (71.7)

DF: Micael (46.76), Brayan Vera (27.64), DJ Taylor (73.94 - A)

MF: Federico Bernardeschi (100 - 3G), Joao Paulo (72.4), Deybi Flores (87.4 - A)

FW: Luis Muriel (45.8), Diego Rubio (36.9), Yuya Kubo (61.1 - G)

Sorare GW 479 // MLS Week 14

Let's start this gameweek by using the RotoWire Cheatsheets to see the best matchups.

  1. D.C. United 54.44% vs. Chicago Fire
  2. San Jose Earthquakes 53.45% vs. Austin FC
  3. LA Galaxy 51.98% vs. Houston
  4. Portland Timbers 49.72% vs. Sporting KC
  5. Colorado Rapids 49.72% vs. Minnesota United

From the biggest underdogs on the last slate to the biggest favorite this weekend, D.C. United are sitting at the top. What other league in the world can provide the parity that MLS shows week after week? It might not be the most technically sound matches to watch, but they are definitely entertaining. Next up is San Jose, who sit in last place in the West. With those two at the top, this is going to be a truly wide-open weekend slate. The third biggest favorite is the LA Galaxy, just eclipsing the 50-percent threshold, while both Portland and Colorado will be plus-money favorites.

With only three teams having greater than a 50-percent implied winning percentage, one-offs seem to be the way to go this weekend. There are midweek matchups again next week, so it's important to monitor if any teams prioritize the Wednesday match over this weekend. There aren't any major rivalry matches like last mid-week/weekend, but it's definitely something to keep an eye on, as were this past week's U.S. Open Cup matches.

This week, I'm thinking outside the box and going with a lot of guys I haven't written about. I think there are exploitable matchups where there could be some surprising players putting up peak scores. After all, this column is about finding those diamonds in the rough each gameweek.

Note: Prices are for limited cards as of Thursday, May 23. The scarcities are Limited (/1000), Rare (/100), Super Rare (/10), and Unique (1/1). 

Elite Options

Goalkeepers

Chicago have been a team to target, as they've struggled to score goals. The Fire only have two goals over the past seven matches. Bono isn't in the best stretch of form, but this seems like a great bounce-back spot. It's been eight straight without a clean sheet for DC, but with close to a 30-percent implied chance this weekend, I'm backing Bono to put up a solid performance.

This could be a shocker, but Orlando have the best clean sheet odds at home against the defending MLS Cup Champions (30.33 CS% & 1.22 xGA). Columbus will be without key striker Cucho Hernandez once again, although Christian Ramirez has stepped in, and the production hasn't missed a beat. Gallese is in scintillating form with three straight matches of 65-plus, including back-to-back 75-plus SO5 outputs. On a weekend that looks to lack clean sheets, I like Orlando at home facing a team that may be looking ahead to the CONCACAF Champions Cup Final.

Honorable Mention: Jonathan Sirois (MTL) $17.72 vs. Nashville

Defenders

Herrera's hot start has significantly cooled. He's had four straight matches with less than 50 points, as DC's form isn't the greatest. Luckily for Herrera owners, matchups are everything in MLS and Herrera has about as good of a matchup as you can have. I like Herrera pushing up the right wing and swinging in a ball to Christian Benteke en route to an upside performance.

He's back and starting to be playable again. Last season, Rodrigues was a stud and put up dark green (75+) scores regularly. It's been a slower start this season, but you have to like the direction this San Jose team is trending. Rodrigues now has 60-plus points in four of six matches, including two goals and an assist. The 6-2 center-back has a knack for getting on the end of corners and I don't see anyone on Austin that can match up with him in set-piece situations.

Honorable Mention: Maya Yoshida (LAG) $5.39 vs. Houston

Midfielders

With the new additions in Colorado, Bassett's ascension has been slightly overlooked in the Rapids' success. Bassett has an L/15 of 61.8 and has done a great job sliding into a more defensive role with Connor Ronan out. Ronan has returned and there is a chance he will start this match, which would push Bassett to the left midfield role. That would be a negative change for me as it would take away a good chunk of the AA Bassett was racking in his defensive role. On the flip side, he would have more chances at decisive actions and the inclusion of Ronan would make Colorado even more dangerous.

The Klich/Benteke combination could be a cheat code for this gameweek. Chicago can't stop a nosebleed this season, as they've left goalkeeper Chris Brady out to dry countless times. Klich is on basically all set pieces and should have several chances to swing in dangerous balls toward the head of Benteke. He has a really safe floor with 80-plus upside in this matchup.

Honorable Mention: Riqui Puig (LAG) $45.54 vs. Houston

Forwards

What can you say about Benteke this season? He has scored 11 goals and added one assist in 12 starts, bullying defensive lines match after match. He's just a class above everyone in MLS when it comes to aerial duels.

Courtesy of FBRef

Benteke is a Haaland-esque 64 percent in this matchup to score a goal, almost 15 percent higher than the next-highest player on the slate. Lock Benteke into your lineups this weekend.

If you use the similar player tool on FBRef, you'll find Benteke at No. 10 on Klauss' list. Finding guys who can add some AA in the forward position is tough and Klauss is averaging 10.2 AA over his last 15 home matches at CITYPARK. A 60-point outing for most strikers can turn into a 70-point day with just one goal and Klauss could very well hit that plateau this gameweek against Seattle.

Honorable Mention: Rafael Navarro (COL) $31.27 vs. Minnesota

Value Options

Goalkeepers

While CITYPARK hasn't quite been the fortress it was last season, it is still an imposing ground for away sides. Burki has three upside performances at home this season and faces a Seattle team that has been shut out six times. Burki is one of the best shot-stoppers in MLS and you could do much worse than St. Louis at home this weekend.

Okay, let's go dumpster diving. If you've followed San Jose, you know they have had several meltdowns this season. For example, in the Portland match, Yarbrough was sitting on a clean sheet and had an upside performance through 60-plus minutes. A red card was given for handball (and later rescinded) and a penalty was converted. Yarbrough then conceded a penalty of his own as well as four goals total. Yarbrough's final score was a whopping zero. San Jose have had some poor luck to start the season and I don't mind backing Yarbrough in a decent matchup.

Honorable Mention: Aljaz Ivacic (NE) $7.83 vs. NYCFC

Defenders

Vines has topped 60 points only twice this season since returning to Colorado. The good news is he's been really consistent, averaging 14.2 AA and providing seven 15-plus AA matches. He's coming off a match where Colorado conceded five goals, so you can throw that AA game out. In the previous match at home, Vines had a crazy 61.5 AA that included a clean sheet, a double double, four attempted assists and six penalty area entries. Vines has an expected goals and assists of 2.4, so he is due for some positive regression and his first decisive of the season.

I'm expecting a fired-up Montreal squad, as Canadian Premier League side Forge FC eliminated them from the Canadian Championship this midweek. Montreal have also lost four straight matches in MLS play. Stade Saputo is usually a tough ground to get points for visiting sides, but you could argue the last two losses were against the top two teams in the league (Columbus and Inter Miami). Waterman is cheap and has had some crazy AA, even in losses. In the 4-1 loss to Nashville in the reverse fixture, Waterman still had 32.66 AA. I like Waterman to get 25-plus AA in this matchup with the upside for more.

Honorable Mention: Vitor Costa (SJ) $1.51 vs. Austin

Midfielders

Espinoza still has a monopoly on set pieces, though Hernan Lopez could take some shots at goal in scoring areas. After a slow start, Espinoza has been a decisive machine, benefiting from San Jose's offensive prowess. I like the matchup against Austin for a nice AA game for Espinoza with the upside of adding to his decisive tally of two goals and seven assists.

The Montreal homegrown has had a bizarre season in which he's requested a move from away the club. Even with this request, first-year coach Laurent Courtois continues to roll with Choiniere in the starting lineup. Last season Choiniere had some crazy peaks with multiple perfect 100s. This season he's only had two matches over 60 SO5 points. The AA is still there, but the upside has been limited. I like Choiniere in this matchup against Nashville to provide 20-plus AA with a slight chance at an upside performance at a cheap price point.

Honorable Mention: Jared Stroud (DC) $1.89 vs. Chicago

Forwards

Pellegrino is coming in at just under $10 and seems to be finally settling in. San Jose's attack has been dangerous and in his last four starts Pellegrino has three goals. At Bodo/Glimt, Pellegrino showed his ability to set up others for goals, which hasn't been shown in his short time in San Jose. If San Jose can solve the Stuver riddle, I can see the Quakes putting up some nice SO5 scores.

Value forwards are always tough to find in MLS. I don't love Mora's lack of AA, but for the price, he has great odds of scoring a goal (tied for fifth this weekend at roughly 42 percent). It's a good matchup against a Sporting KC team that has struggled mightily as of late and he should have his chances at a goal.

Honorable Mention: Dejan Joveljic (LAG) $9.82 vs. Houston

Deke's Favorite Lineup

Last GW optimal lineup:

Brad Stuver 29.4, Kai Wagner 67.06, Carles Gil 43.1, Cristian Arango 90.7, Aidan Morris 47.5

Raw Score: 277.76
 

Score with 5% XP & Gil 50% Captain: 313.2

GW 479 Favorite Lineup

I'm pivoting a little in this column. Instead of playing just my top projected scorers at each position, I want to create a lineup that I think has a lot of upside for the gameweek. In this gameweek, I like the idea of a four-man DC United stack and adding a one-off play of Riqui Puig instead of including Stroud for a full stack. The Bono/Herrera combo could be huge with a clean sheet and I like pairing Klich/Benteke for set-piece double decisive upside.

Created via the Concept Builder on Sorare Data

The author(s) of this article may play in daily fantasy contests including – but not limited to – games that they have provided recommendations or advice on in this article. In the course of playing in these games using their personal accounts, it's possible that they will use players in their lineups or other strategies that differ from the recommendations they have provided above. The recommendations in this article do not necessarily reflect the views of RotoWire. Deke Mathews plays in daily fantasy contests using the following accounts: DraftKings: dm734593.
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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Deke Mathews
Outside of rooting on his Philadelphia Union, you can find Deke making spreadsheets, coaching hockey, and teaching 7th grade math.
Sorare MLS: Deke's Diamonds GW 486
Sorare MLS: Deke's Diamonds GW 486
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