Sweeping the Floor: Examining EPL Fantasy Point Distributions on DraftKings

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Updated on October 11, 2018 6:01PM EST

We're now eight weeks into the Premier League season and on an international break, which seems like the ideal time to take stock of what we've seen from all 20 Premier League teams. To no one's surprise, Manchester City sit atop the table and is the highest-scoring team, while clubs like Cardiff City, Huddersfield and Newcastle are showing early signs of a relegation battle.

The priority of this column is to focus on players with good fantasy floors, making them ideal candidates for cash-game rosters on DraftKings. In addition to players who do well individually in terms for floor points (total fantasy points minus goals, assists and clean sheets), it's always good to see if they're actually playing for a team that scores a lot of points, or if they just happen to take up a big piece of a small pie (or are a big fish in a small pond, whatever annoying cliche you prefer).

Consistency is also an important attribute when considering players for cash-game lineups, so I've included a basic standard deviation for each player based on their average fantasy points scored per game, as well as their average only when they start, since we're not realistically rostering players who are on the bench. I'm not going to go into detail here about what a standard deviation is, but if you'd like more information, here you go; just know that the lower the number, the more consistently a player scores near his average.

Before we dive

Before we dive into each individual player on each individual team, here is a breakdown of all 20 Premier League clubs, sorted by how many floor points they've scored and how many they've conceded, as well as the statistical breakdowns of the DraftKings scoring categories:

Legend: Y = yellow cards, R = red cards, G = goals, A = assists, S = shots, SOG = shots on goal, CR = crosses, INT = interceptions, TKLW = tackles won, FC = fouls committed, FS = fouls suffered

ARSENAL
Arsenal sit fourth in the table, they're the second-highest goal-scoring team in the league with the fourth-best goal differential and yet there are only seven teams in the league with fewer floor points. In previous seasons we were used to targeting (or at least considering) Mesut Ozil because of his role on set pieces, but he's been losing more and more of the opportunities to Granit Xhaka, which moves the latter into the cash-game discussion. But, of course, instead of Xhaka having the most floor points after eight weeks, it's actually striker Alexandre Lacazette, who not only has the most floor points (45.25) but also the most overall (97.25) thanks to his four goals and two assists. Additionally, he has a lower standard deviation on his average of 7.75 fantasy points per start; then again, he's only started five of eight games and his standard deviation will almost certainly rise with a bigger sample size.

Legend: ST = starts, MIN = minutes, Total pts = total fantasy points scored, Total Flr = total fantasy points excluding goals and assists, Pts/90 = fantasy points scored per 90 minutes, Flr/90 = fantasy points scored, excluding goals and assists, per 90 minutes, Pts Avg = average fantasy points per game, Flr Avg = average floor points per game, Max Flr = maximum floor points scored in a match, Min Flr = minimum floor points scored in a match, Std Dev = standard deviation, Pts Avg (St) = average fantasy points per start, Flr Avg (St) = average floor points per start, Max Flr (St) = maximum floor points scored in a start, Min Flr (St) = minimum floor points scored in a start, Std Dev (St) = standard deviation of floor average in starts

BOURNEMOUTH
Ryan Fraser has unsurprisingly been the dominant fantasy piece for Bournemouth this season, as he not only leads them in floor points, with 17.55 percent of their total, but he's also their overall leading scorer thanks to three goals and three assists. His consistency is among the best for players who lead their teams in floor points, and his team-high 41 crosses as part of his 30 free kicks has helped him to the top (he also leads the team in fouls drawn and is third in shots). However, the recent return of Junior Stanislas from a long-term knee injury could cut into Fraser's production.

BRIGHTON & HOVE ALBION
Brighton have been the worst floor-point-producing team, though it's not an overly surprising outcome eight weeks into the season. One big detriment has been the ankle injury to regular set-piece taker Pascal Gross, who is the team's third-highest floor scorer despite playing just 219 minutes over three starts. Anthony Knockaert has taken on a bigger role, but his fantasy returns have been far from consistent. He's doing a lot for the team, as his 18.26 percent of their total floor production is the second-highest percentage in the entire league, but Brighton's poor play means we rarely end up strongly considering Knockaert in cash games.

BURNLEY
In probably the least surprising result, Johann Berg Gudmundsson is the clear leader of Burnley's fantasy production, though it's worth noting that eight other players have a bigger percentage of their team's floor points and Burnley have only the third-fewest total floor points in the league. Gudmundsson's floor average of 8.50 points per start is strong, but it actually undercuts him a bit because of his Aug. 26 game at Fulham when he played just 19 minutes before leaving with an injury. If we remove that from the calculation, he's averaged 9.92 floor points per game, a solid return that puts him among the league leaders. If there's one big thing to watch out for it's what happens when Robbie Brady makes his way back from a long-term injury, as he was JBG before there was JBG.

CARDIFF CITY
Cardiff aren't exactly a team you're usually dying to have exposure to in cash games or GPPs, but it's worth noting they've scored more floor points than Bournemouth, Burnley, Newcastle and Brighton. What may be more surprising is that Josh Murphy leads the team in total fantasy points and total floor points despite starting just four of eight matches and taking seven free kicks (five crosses and two shots). He's been excellent in those four starts too, scoring at least 9.00 floor points in each, and while three of those games came against Newcastle (home), Huddersfield (away) and Burnley (home), he also reached 9.00 against Tottenham (away). He leads Cardiff in shots and fouls drawn while sitting tied for third in crosses, a solid well-rounded combination that doesn't make him so reliant on any one attacking stat.

CHELSEA
Eden Hazard is the highest-scoring player on DraftKings this season, with his 164.25 fantasy points almost 30 more than the next-highest player. Much of that is thanks to his league-leading seven goals, not to mention his three assists, but even without those he's fourth in total floor points despite playing fewer minutes than all the other players in the top 20. Coming in with the 21st-most floor points this season is teammate Willian, whose bigger role on set pieces has given him a solid floor that has him sixth in the league in crosses. And while we're generally seeing Cesar Azpilicueta cross more than Marcos Alonso, the latter's shot volume more than makes up for the former's increase in crosses.

CRYSTAL PALACE
We've long looked at Crystal Palace for a reliable set-piece taker, which is why a mostly defensive midfielder like Luka Milivojevic gets so much fantasy attention. However, it's actually Andros Townsend who leads the team in floor points and has a much lower standard deviation. Additionally, their combined floor points equate to 32.79 percent of the team total, with their respective 16.67 and 16.13 percents of the team total equating to the eighth and 10th highest averages in the league. That being said, everyone knows Townsend and Milivojevic are the Crystal Palace plays, but it's a bit surprising that Aaron Wan-Bissaka is ahead of Wilfried Zaha and Patrick van Aanholt, both of whom get plenty of consideration in cash games, even without set pieces.

EVERTON
Want to know why weird people loudly exclaim "In Gylfi We Trust!" on Saturdays? It's because he's the highest-scoring floor player in the Premier League this season who also happens to have scored four goals and assisted another, making him the second-highest scoring player overall (then again, the gap between Hazard and Sigurdsson is almost as big as the gap between Sigurdsson and the ninth-highest scorer). Sigurdsson's 18.43 percent piece of the Everton total floor production is the highest in the league, and while there was some recent trepidation about Sigurdsson because he was losing a few set pieces to defender Lucas Digne, that's just when Sigurdsson turns it up and scores his goals (eye rolls from those who faded Sigurdsson over the past two weekends, me included). Digne's role shouldn't be ignored, however, as he's the second-highest floor scorer on the team despite starting just five of eight matches (Sigurdsson has started all eight). Going further, Digne actually has a slightly higher per-game floor average than Sigurdsson with a lower standard deviation. That's not to say he's the better play, but just because Sigurdsson has such a big part of the Everton fantasy-point production doesn't mean we should ignore Digne or Richarlison, who co-leads the team in goals and shots on goal while leading them in fouls drawn despite starting just six games.

FULHAM
If there's one thing we've quickly learned about Fulham it's that they give up a TON of fantasy points. Not only are the 809.00 fantasy points allowed by far the most in the league (the gap between Fulham and second-place Newcastle is almost as big as the gap between Newcastle and 17th-place Everton), but their 519.00 floor points allowed is more than the total fantasy points allowed (meaning those including goals and assists) by five teams. They lead the league in goals allowed, assists allowed and shots on goal allowed, while giving up the third-most shots, third-most crosses, second most-interceptions and fourth-most tackles won. Heck, Glenn Murray had 13.00 floor points against them! (He had 31.50 total thanks to two goals). Their own fantasy production is a bit wonky too, as their top two scorers, Andre Schurrle and Aleksandar Mitrovic, have taken just one free-kick shot each with no corners or other free-kicks. Schurrle's 15.56 percent of Fulham's total floor points is the 12th-highest in the league, but he also has the highest standard deviation on the team. Many fantasy players were appropriately drawn to Jean Michael Seri earlier in the season, though interestingly Luciano Vietto has a higher floor when starting with a lower standard deviation. And, of course, there's Ryan Sessegnon, who has been better of late but is still a riskier cash play.

HUDDERSFIELD
"PHIL-IP BILL-ING - CLAP CLAP CLAP-CLAP-CLAP, PHIL-IP BILL-ING - CLAP CLAP CLAP-CLAP-CLAP"

Despite taking zero set pieces through eight games, Philip Billing leads Huddersfield in total fantasy points and floor points, though I suppose for a team with only four goals and three assists that isn't overly shocking since Billing scored one of those goals. That being said, 10 teams have had fewer floor points than Huddersfield this season, including teams we assume have plenty like Crystal Palace, Arsenal, Wolverhampton, West Ham and Bournemouth. Huddersfield are the second-highest crossing team in the league, which in itself is pretty impressive since they've taken the sixth-fewest corners. Billing's crossing isn't overly plentiful, and while Aaron Mooy, Chris Lowe and Florent Hadergjonaj can take care of those, let's at least recognize that Billing is second (tied with Mooy) on the team in shots, first in tackles won, first (with Rajiv van La Parra) in fouls drawn and first in interceptions. However, he's averaging fewer fantasy points per start than Mooy and barely more than Lowe while having a higher standard deviation.

LEICESTER CITY
One of the reasons I've been so positive about Ben Chilwell this season is that he has one of the lowest standard deviations on his average floor points among outfield players who have started at least three games. Chilwell has scored at least 6.00 floor points in every one of his eight starts, and the next highest for a player with eight starts is Paul Pogba and James Maddison at 4.75, with no other players above 4.00. Chilwell's "defensive" teammate Ricardo Pereira has also been very reliable, as he has a 7.07 floor average per game, also with a very low standard deviation; in fact, it's one of the lowest in the league. All that being said, Maddison continues to be the most productive Leicester fantasy option, accounting for 18.01 percent of their total floor points, the fourth-highest percentage in the Premier League. He co-leads the team in goals (with Jamie Vardy, who has played three fewer games) and shots (again with Vardy) while solely leading in fouls drawn and chances created and sitting second in crosses. There's plenty to go around with Leicester, who have the fifth-most floor points this season thanks to a well-rounded group that also includes Wilfred Ndidi, who leads Leicester in tackles and is second in the league in that category.

LIVERPOOL
Liverpool's fantasy production is pretty spread out this season, and while Mohamed Salah leads the team in total points and floor points, Sadio Mane, James Milner and Trent Alexander-Arnold all account for at least 12 percent individually. Mane is the most volatile of the group, and while Andrew Robertson has a much lower standard deviation on his starting average, it shows that he's a distant fifth in terms of actual production. And not that we think he's a reliable cash play, but it's a bit striking to see how poor of a floor option Roberto Firmino has been, even sitting behind defender Joe Gomez in total floor points, average floor points per game and max floor points. Firmino's two goals and two assists at least put him behind only Salah, Mane and Milner among the team leaders in total fantasy points, but the floor just isn't there.

MANCHESTER CITY
Despite losing Kevin De Bruyne in the first match of the season, Manchester City have barely missed a beat, as they lead the league in total fantasy points and total floor points thanks to their league-high 20 goals, 15 assists, 174 shots and 65 shots on goal, as well as the third-most crosses (helped by their league-lead in corners), a figure that is a bit surprising after they finished with the sixth-fewest last season despite leading the league in corners. The production is fairly evenly spread out, though some may be surprised that Raheem Sterling leads the team in floor points. Everyone continues to fear manager Pep Guardiola's rotation, but the one attacker who has started all eight Premier League matches is Sergio Aguero, the team leader in total fantasy points (he's third in the league) because of his four goals and two assists. City's set-piece situation is also really muddy, as Ilkay Gundogan (17 corners plus free-kick crosses in four starts), Leroy Sane (14 in three), Riyad Mahrez (12 in three), Bernardo Silva (12 in seven), David Silva (nine in six) and Sterling (nine in seven) have all gotten involved in dead balls. If anything, the Manchester City cash-game strategy is still just to get a small piece of a gigantic pie and hope the guy(s) you picked score a goal to inevitably make up for an overall disappointing floor based on their usually expensive salaries. If anything, based on their low standard deviations, Mahrez and Sane are theoretically the safest, though their figures may rise with more playing time.

MANCHESTER UNITED
It only seems fitting that the player who has supposedly caused the most friction with manager Jose Mourinho is the one who leads the team in total fantasy points and floor points: Paul Pogba. Both of Pogba's goals have come from the penalty spot, but he also leads the team in assists, shots, shots on goal and fouls drawn. So how is it that the highest-scoring floor player for the team with the third-most floor points in the league is usually scoffed at when discussing good cash plays? Usually it's because he's priced up thanks to his goal upside, but Pogba needs to be in the conversation more than he has been. One player who is always in the discussion is Ashley Young, the second-highest scoring floor player for United despite starting just four of eight games. His 12.13 floor average per start is one of the highest in the league, as is his low floor of 9.75. Those are averages that are obviously not sustainable over the course of an entire season, but Young's attacking upside coupled with his usually decent clean sheet odds explain why he's always very expensive.

NEWCASTLE
Newcastle sit 19th in the table with the third-fewest goals scored, leading to the second-fewest overall fantasy points and the second-fewest floor points. They're led by Matt Ritchie, though his 13.35 percent of their total floor points is the 24th-highest percentage in the league while his 51.25 floor points are bettered by 38 other players. Kenedy (11.11 percent) and Jonjo Shelvey (9.15 percent) are the next highest on the team, and it's worth pointing out they've started six and five matches, respectively, versus Ritchie's seven. The fantasy-point distribution is fairly spread out after those three, and regular fantasy players would find no surprise with Ritchie, Kenedy and Shelvey leading the team. On the plus side, those players are usually pretty cheap, but it's just hard to justify paying up for any of them when the time comes given the spread out production, which in itself is fairly low. And while he's only started three matches, it was quickly apparent that Newcastle's Salomon Rondon is very much not West Brom's Salomon Rondon.

SOUTHAMPTON
Remember when James Ward-Prowse was a thing? That's was fun. Thankfully, we've moved on to the much more talented Mohamed Elyounoussi, who leads Southampton in floor points despite starting only half their games. A decent chunk of Elyounoussi's fantasy production comes from his crosses (he leads the team in the category), with his 9.46 crosses per 90 minutes ranking third in the Premier League. However, Elyounoussi isn't the player who jumps out at me, nor is it one of the fullbacks, Ryan Bertrand or Cedric Soares, who have long been reliable fantasy defenders (though not as much this season). Instead, it's a player who is averaging 7.25 floor points per start, an average higher than players like Harry Kane, James Milner, David Silva, Bernardo Silva, Marcos Alonso and Alexis Sanchez. The player: Danny Ings! Starting six of eight matches for Southampton this season, Ings hasn't dipped below 5.50 floor points thanks to his team-leading three goals, 24 shots and nine shots on goal. An easy cash play when his salary is low? I might not go that far, but let's make sure Ings is at least in the conversation when he has a good matchup.

TOTTENHAM
There was a time when Christian Eriksen was a lock in cash games almost every time out, but now it's Kieran Trippier's time to shine. Eriksen's relinquishment of set pieces to Trippier has been a boon to the latter's fantasy value, as he is their team leader in floor points and second in total fantasy points through eight games (he's started seven). He's tied for second in the Premier League in crosses, and while we want to say he has a lot of attacking value outside of crosses (and presumably the assists that result from those crosses), we're not seeing a lot, as his free-kick goal this season represented 33 percent of his total shots and 100 percent of his total shots on goal. He is second on the team in tackles won, except there are 27 players in the Premier League with more. His 9.43 fantasy points per start also lead Tottenham, though his standard deviation is the highest on the team thanks to 1.25 points away to Manchester United and 3.75 points at home against Liverpool. Understandably, those are matches you probably don't need to play him in, but in all others, why not pay $7,000 for a defender with clean sheet potential with almost all set pieces when we were happily paying almost $10,000 for Eriksen and his monopoly of set pieces a year or two ago?

WATFORD
If you haven't been playing Jose Holebas in cash games this season, who have you been playing instead? The league-leader in crosses by a wide margin, Holebas leads Watford in total points thanks to one goal and four assists, as well as floor points, mainly stemming from his crosses. Watford as a whole have been a pretty good floor-point-producing team, ranking sixth through eight weeks, ahead of teams like Chelsea and Liverpool. Holebas has accounted for 18.04 percent of that production, but second on the team is surprisingly Will Hughes, who is averaging 6.44 floor points per start, which is more than Bernardo Silva, Marcos Alonso and Jean Michael Seri, except Hughes has a lower standard deviation and basically no set pieces. At the right price, Hughes, who co-leads Watford in tackles won and leads in fouls drawn, should certainly be a cash-game consideration.

WEST HAM
West Ham's summer signing spree brought in a number of great floor players, with the pre-season expectation that the most difficult part about the team would be figuring out which one of the multiple floor players you'd want. Felipe Anderson, Andriy Yarmolenko, Robert Snodgrass and Aaron Cresswell were all proven floor players, and there was even a time this season when people were actually wanting to play Jack Wilshere! (I can't believe it either). Unfortunately, what's transpired is that West Ham have the sixth-fewest floor points through eight games, with Felipe Anderson accounting for a team-high 17.32 percent of their points and Marko Arnautovic next at 9.11 percent. The dominance of Felipe Anderson can't be understated, as he has 0.25 fewer points than Arnautovic and Michail Antonio, the third-highest floor scorer, combined. Granted, Antonio has only started four games, a situation that also applies to Yarmolenko, who is beginning to get more playing time and could be a valuable fantasy piece soon enough. Then again, it's tough to make the cash-game argument for anyone beyond Felipe Anderson, with Arnautovic getting more looks when they are decent favorites thanks to his team-high four goals on 21 shots, including eight shots on goal.

WOLVERHAMPTON
There was a lot of excitement about Wolverhampton coming into the season, as they were generally seen as not your average promoted side thanks to their big(ish) spending and players that, you know, we had actually heard of before this summer. Ivan Cavaleiro was their main set-piece taker last season in the Championship, but the summer-signing of Joao Moutinho put that in flux until Cavaleiro suffered a back injury before the season even started. Moutinho took on the set pieces, along with a few scattered opportunities for Ruben Neves, who has still only put three of his 18 shots on goal (and not a single one of those 18 came from inside the box). Cavaleiro finally made his season debut but hasn't started yet, so we're still a bit hazy on who will get the set pieces when he's fully fit. And, of course, we can't (or at least I can't) ignore the solid play of Adama Traore, who is averaging 13.95 floor points per 90 minutes but only 3.79 per match because he still hasn't gotten a start. Once he does, watch out.