This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The third round of the Australian Open will begin Friday down under, which is Thursday night in America. Upsets have been flying fast and furious, and a couple of young men's players will be looking to add to that tally against two of the highest seeds remaining in the draw. Two former Grand Slam champions in the women's draw could see their runs come to an end in competitive matches here, while a pair of young stars who have yet to drop a set are poised to continue mowing down the competition. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks, including those that just launched in Ohio.
The men play best-of-five set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups are considered below, with added emphasis on players' form through the first two rounds. Those factors are used to pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be considered overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bet section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Upset Alert
Sebastian Korda (+350) vs. Daniil Medvedev
Korda will be looking to notch the latest major upset by an American man after Mackenzie McDonald and Jenson Brooksby stunned Rafael Nadal and Casper Ruud, respectively. After coming within one point of beating Novak Djokovic for the title in Adelaide earlier this month, Korda should be confident that he can hang with anyone. Medvedev won their only previous meeting 4-6, 6-1, 6-3 at the Paris Masters in 2021, but the 22-year-old Korda has improved significantly since then.
Jiri Lehecka (+240) vs. Cameron Norrie
Lehecka is an underrated, ascending young player. The 21-year-old Czech swept away No. 21 seed Borna Coric in the opening round, and he'll be looking to notch another quality win against the 11th-seeded Norrie. Like Coric, Norrie needs to construct points with precision to cover for his middling power. Luca Van Assche and Constant Lestienne combined to break Norrie eight times in seven sets, and Lehecka will likely put constant pressure on the Brit's serve after breaking five times apiece against Coric and big-serving American Christopher Eubanks.
Honorable Mention
Lin Zhu (+450) vs. Maria Sakkari
Lock It In
Coco Gauff (-650) vs. Bernarda Pera
Gauff has yet to drop a set and is coming off an impressive 6-3, 7-6 (4) victory in a high quality match against Emma Raducanu. Like Raducanu, Pera can control points from the baseline, but Gauff doesn't mind scrambling around, while Pera lacks the defensive skills to match when Gauff goes on offense. An underrated improvement for the 18-year-old American has come on the second serve, as Gauff has double faulted only four times through four sets here. Pera has enough skill to be a tricky third-round opponent for nearly everyone in the draw, but Gauff's one of the few exceptions.
Jannik Sinner (-800) vs. Marton Fucsovics
Sinner's looking like a dark horse title contender. While other top players have been dropping like flies, the 21-year-old Austrian has cruised through the first two rounds without dropping a set. Fucsovics leads their head-to-head 2-1, with both wins coming at Grand Slams, but Sinner has improved both his serve and his mental makeup since these two last faced off at Wimbledon in 2021. Expect smooth sailing this time around for the No. 15 seed.
Honorable Mention:
Jelena Ostapenko (-250) vs. Kateryna Baindl
Value Bet
Anhelina Kalinina (+115) vs. Barbora Krejcikova
Kalinina has been locked in, backing up a 6-3, 6-1 first-round win over Coco Vandeweghe with a 7-5, 6-4 upset over No. 15 seed Petra Kvitova. The 25-year-old Ukrainian is playing the best tennis of her career and will set her sights on knocking off another former Grand Slam champion in Krejcikova. After winning the 2021 French Open, Krejcikova made the quarterfinals in two of the following three majors before suffering an elbow injury. She has yet to regain form since that injury, going just 3-3 in her last three Grand Slams prior to this one.
Danielle Collins (+125) vs. Elena Rybakina
Collins is an outstanding competitor, and she loves to outwork opponents in the Australian heat. The 2019 semifinalist and 2022 runner-up at this event outlasted Anna Kalinskaya 6-4 in the third and Karolina Muchova in a third-set tiebreak in the first two rounds, so Collins should find herself right at home if this match also comes down to the wire. Rybakina beat Collins 5-7, 6-2, 6-3 in Adelaide, but the Wimbledon champion is just 3-5 in her last eight matches against top-70 opponents, including her first-round win over Elisabetta Cocciaretto. She has yet to replicate her grass-court success on other surfaces, where Rybakina's big serve doesn't provide as much of an edge against strong returners such as Collins.
Honorable Mention:
Frances Tiafoe (-115) vs. Karen Khachanov
