This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The first round of the Australian Open wraps up Tuesday from the hard courts of Melbourne Park, which will be Monday night for American viewers. A pair of American women will look to pull off upsets, while a couple of Australian men could give the crowd something to cheer about in matchups against fellow unseeded players. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the Australian Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Australian Open Picks: Upset Alert
Shelby Rogers (+245) vs. Emma Raducanu
Since coming out of nowhere to win the 2021 US Open, Raducanu hasn't made it past the second round in five Grand Slam appearances. She didn't play after April in 2023 due to surgeries on both wrists, and Raducanu didn't look the sharpest in her return earlier this month, getting pushed to 7-5 in the third set by 134th-ranked Elena Gabriela Ruse before falling to Elina Svitolina. Rogers has dropped to No. 161, having been on hiatus since Wimbledon, but the 31-year-old American won't be overwhelmed by the moment here. The big-hitting Rogers has 50 career wins over players who have been ranked in the top 10 at some point in their careers, including an upset win over Ashleigh Barty at the 2021 US Open while Barty held the top ranking.
Peyton Stearns (+215) vs. Daria Kasatkina
Kasatkina is the No. 14 seed here and has been a top-20 player for a while, but she hasn't found much success down under, with a career record of 6-8 at the Australian Open. The Russian's light second serve is attackable on fast hard courts, so Stearns should be more optimistic about her chances here after a pair of one-sided losses to Kasatkina last year. Those results occurred before Stearns' breakout run to the Round of 16 at the US Open, which catapulted the 22-year-old American into the top 50.
Honorable Mention
Soonwoo Kwon (+210) vs. Lukas Klein
Australian Open Odds: Lock It In
Max Purcell (-350) vs. Mate Valkusz
Purcell should give the Australian fans plenty to cheer about in this battle of 25-year-olds against an opponent who has just one main draw win on the ATP Tour and has never been ranked inside the top 200. Valkusz will just be happy to have gotten through qualifying, while Purcell has his sights set much higher on the heels of a breakout season. The Aussie has climbed into the top 50 after reaching a pair of hard-court quarterfinals at the tour level in 2023, including a quarterfinal result at the Cincinnati Masters.
Sorana Cirstea (-240) vs. Yafan Wang
Cirstea's getting ready for her 16th Australian Open main draw appearance, and the 33-year-old Romanian is playing some of the best tennis of her career, as her current No. 27 ranking is just six spots short of her career best from over a decade ago. The 29-year-old Wang is ranked 94th, and she's just 3-5 since the US Open, with her best win over that stretch coming against the world No. 180 and two losses to players outside the top 200. Playing up to Cirstea's level will be tough for Wang given both their overall resumes and recent results.
Honorable Mention
Jelena Ostapenko (-650) vs. Kimberly Birrell
Australian Open Predictions: Value Bets
Thanasi Kokkinakis (-105) vs. Sebastian Ofner
Ofner has a 43-spot edge in the rankings, but the 80th-ranked Kokkinakis is the more physically gifted player. The oft-injured Australian has a huge serve and will be amped up playing in front of a supportive crowd. Kokkinakis appears to be healthy heading into this tournament, unlike doubles partner Nick Kyrgios, who remains sidelined by a wrist injury. Ofner made the Round of 16 at the French Open last year, but the 27-year-old Austrian has only one hard-court main draw win at a Grand Slam, and this will be Ofner's first main draw match at the Australian Open. Kokkinakis is in his eighth trip to this tournament, and that familiarity should help him feel more comfortable.
Tallon Griekspoor (+160) vs. Roman Safiullin
This match looks like a toss-up on paper, so Griekspoor's a nice value as a clear underdog according to the odds. Griekspoor is the No. 28 seed on the heels of a strong 2023 campaign during which he went 15-10 on hard courts, including a third-round result at the Australian Open. Safiullin is favored in this match coming off a semifinal result in Brisbane, but he has just a 2-4 career record in hard-court Grand Slam matches, and Safiullin's .490 career winning percentage on hard courts is his lowest mark among the three main surfaces.
Honorable Mention
Laslo Djere (-130) vs. Arthur Cazaux
