This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Thursday could be the most exciting day of the entire BNP Paribas Open at Indian Wells, with all four men's quarterfinals and all four women's quarterfinals on the schedule. This action-packed day includes an Australian Open quarterfinal rematch on the men's side, some young WTA stars looking to add to their breakout seasons, and a trio of Americans altogether. All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live, like North Carolina, where you can take advantage of exclusive betting promos.
All matches at the BNP Paribas Open are best of three sets, which is the case for all ATP Masters 1000 and WTA 1000 level tournaments. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Picks: Upset Alert
Alexander Zverev (+195) vs. Carlos Alcaraz
Nobody has more ATP Tour-level wins over Alcaraz than Zverev. Djokovic has beaten the 20-year-old Spaniard three times and Sinner has four victories over Alcaraz, but Zverev has already compiled a 5-3 head-to-head record against Alcaraz, most recently beating him in four sets in the quarterfinals of the Australian Open. Zverev sustained an 85 percent first-serve percentage over the course of that four-setter, so he's certainly capable of doing so for two or three sets, which is likely what it will take for the German to add to his success against the defending Indian Wells champion. Alcaraz seems to have found a better rhythm now compared to his form down under and should be viewed as the favorite in this match, but only a slight one given the success Zverev has had when they play.
Honorable Mention
Yue Yuan (+475) vs. Coco Gauff
Indian Wells Odds: Lock It In
Jannik Sinner (-650) vs. Jiri Lehecka
Lehecka is coming off back-to-back impressive upset wins, taking care of Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas in straight sets. In both those matches, Lehecka was able to seize control in baseline rallies by being aggressive off both wings against opponents with inferior backhands. Unfortunately for Lehecka, Sinner doesn't have such a glaring weakness, and this looks like a case of two players trying to execute a similar style with one simply being better at it. Both Sinner and Lehecka pummel the ball and will look to step in when possible, but Sinner's balance and reach make him the superior defender. Sinner's listed at 6-foot-2 compared to Lehecka's 6-foot-1, but Sinner's probably closer to 6-foot-4 after a growth spurt a couple of years ago. Sinner has lost just four sets all year during his 15-0 start, and the 32nd-ranked Lehecka is unlikely to be the player to hand the Italian his first defeat of 2024.
Daniil Medvedev (-225) vs. Holger Rune
Medvedev has won eight of his last nine matches at Indian Wells, with the lone loss coming in last year's championship match against Alcaraz. The fourth-seeded Russian plays by far his best tennis on hard courts, so it's encouraging for him that these two split their previous two meetings last year, both on clay. The 20-year-old Rune hasn't shown significant development since those matchups in 2023, and Medvedev's strong first serve should earn him plenty of free points against a Rune return that still needs a lot of work. Rune's coming off a nice win over hometown favorite Taylor Fritz, but the No. 7 seed was just 1-7 in his previous eight matches against top-20 opponents, with the lone win coming via retirement.
Honorable Mentions
Iga Swiatek (-1100) vs. Caroline Wozniacki
Indian Wells Predictions: Value Bets
Tommy Paul (+115) vs. Casper Ruud
Paul took advantage of Novak Djokovic's surprising exit, ending Luca Nardi's Cinderella run in the Round of 16, but the last American man left in the draw took out No. 14 seed Ugo Humbert in the previous round, so Paul has shown he can notch quality wins, too. Ruud's hard-court form has looked much better in 2024 after a down year in 2023 following his 2022 breakout, but the eight-spot rankings gap between these two is due primarily to Ruud's success on clay. Ruud holds a 4-1 edge in their head-to-head, including a five-set thriller at the 2022 US Open, where Ruud went on to make the final, but the Indian Wells court conditions favor Paul, who has been locked in on serve all week. Paul has faced exactly one break point in each of his three matches, while Ruud has broken serve multiple times in only one of his three matches here.
Marta Kostyuk (-145) vs. Anastasia Potapova
Kostyuk is having a breakout season to begin 2024, and while both of these players hit big from the baseline, the Ukrainian has shown more patience and consistency than her Russian opponent. Kostyuk reached the quarterfinals of the Australian Open, where she pushed Coco Gauff to the limit, and she's 11-3 since the start of that tournament, with one of the three losses coming via retirement. Potapova has won both of their previous encounters, but the 21-year-old Kostyuk is a better player now than she was when they faced off last year. Even after a 7-5, 0-6, 6-3 fourth-round win over Jasmine Paolini, Potapova is just 2-4 in her last six matches against top-50 opponents.
Honorable Mention
Emma Navarro (-115) vs. Maria Sakkari
