This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
Third-round play continues Monday from the hard courts of Indian Wells. A top-five seed could be in trouble against a player who has played some of their best tennis here over the years, while a surging American will look to add to a lengthy winning streak, and a battle between ATP veterans presents a nice value opportunity.
All Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but you can sometimes find more favorable odds on some of these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites. We offer exclusive sign-up bonuses for some of those sportsbooks in states where sports betting has gone live.
All men's and women's singles matches at Indian Wells are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as overwhelming favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
Indian Wells Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Maria Sakkari (+320) vs. Coco Gauff
Something about Indian Wells brings out the best in Sakkari, who reached the final here in 2022 and 2024, sandwiched around a semifinal showing in 2023. The former world No. 3 picked up where she left off at this venue in the second round against Viktoriya Tomova, with a dominant 6-3, 6-0 victory. Meanwhile, the slumping Gauff narrowly avoided a fourth consecutive loss, needing a third-set tiebreak to get through 52nd-ranked Moyuka Uchijima, 6-4, 3-6, 7-6 (4). Sakkari leads the head-to-head against Gauff, 5-3, and their most recent encounter was a Sakkari win in the semifinals of Indian Wells last year.
Hubert Hurkacz (+160) vs. Alex de Minaur
These two play very differently but ultimately usually aren't too far apart in terms of results. Hurkacz is currently ranked 22nd, but it wouldn't be surprising to see the 6-foot-5 Pole climb closer to de Minaur's current No. 10 spot, as Hurkacz's drop from that range was due in part to a torn meniscus suffered last year at Wimbledon. Their head-to-head is tied 1-1, with de Minaur needing a third-set tiebreak to win their only previous hard-court matchup. Hurkacz gets significantly more free points on serve, and while the 152-pound de Minaur is the far better mover, this matchup isn't a natural fit for the Aussie. De Minaur excels at redirecting his opponents' power, but he won't have much of that to work with against Hurkacz, who has the slowest forehand speeds in the top 50.
Honorable Mention
Diana Shnaider (+175) vs. Belinda Bencic
Indian Wells Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Madison Keys (-275) vs. Elise Mertens
Keys wasn't bothered in the slightest by her layoff after winning the Australian Open, returning to action with a dominant 6-3, 6-0 second-round win over Anastasia Potapova. With a new level of swagger and belief accompanying her powerful ground game, Keys has racked up 13 consecutive victories. Mertens is ill-equipped to slow Keys' roll, as the fifth-ranked American will be able to dictate play with her superior weapons against the 28th-ranked Belgian. Keys leads their head-to-head 3-2 and will be motivated to avenge last year's loss to Mertens at the U.S. Open, which was the final Grand Slam before Keys finally broke through for her first major title down under.
Jasmine Paolini (-350) vs. Jaqueline Cristian
Paolini's off to a shaky start in 2025 at 7-4, but all of the sixth-ranked Italian's losses have come against top-60 competition. Cristian has been outplaying her No. 79 ranking to begin the year, but she's just 1-7 against top-10 competition in her career, and Paolini leads their head-to-head 3-0. The 26-year-old Romanian has never been past the third round of a Grand Slam or WTA 1000 event, while Paolini has reached at least the third round in all but two of the 15 such events she has entered since the start of last year.
Honorable Mention
Jack Draper (-425) vs. Jenson Brooksby
Indian Wells Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Gael Monfils (+100) vs. Grigor Dimitrov
Monfils leads the head-to-head against Dimitrov 4-2 overall, including 3-0 on hard courts, with the Frenchman having won eight of their nine previous sets against each other on this surface. Both players are past their prime, but the 33-year-old Dimitrov has been having more physical issues than the 38-year-old Monfils lately, as Dimitrov has already had to retire due to injuries three times in 2025. Overall, Dimitrov's just 4-4 this season while Monfils is 11-3. Even peak Dimitrov lacked the mental and physical stamina to grind out sets against Monfils' superb defense, and this diminished version of the Bulgarian will have a hard time bucking that trend.
Botic van de Zandschulp (-105) vs. Francisco Cerundolo
Van de Zandschulp has made the most of his opportunity at this tournament as a lucky loser, beating Novak Djokovic 6-2, 3-6, 6-1 in the second round to add another huge scalp to his collection after defeating Carlos Alcaraz at the 2024 U.S. Open. The Dutchman also reached the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open in 2021, so he's an established hard-court player. His power plays up on this surface, and van de Zandschulp's career hard-court win rate is just over .500, while Cerundolo prefers clay and has a .481 win rate on hard courts. Between van de Zandschulp's confidence boost from beating Djokovic and this match being on a hard court, the world No. 85 looks like a slight favorite here despite being ranked 59 spots behind Cerundolo.
Honorable Mention
Ben Shelton (-110) vs. Karen Khachanov
