This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The quarterfinal matchups have been decided in Paris, as Tomas Martin Etcheverry staked his claim by losing just one game in the final two sets against Yoshihito Nishioka, who clearly had given all he could after dropping a tight first frame. Casper Ruud also found his way to fend off the power of Nicolas Jarry, while Beatriz Haddad Maia prevailed in the third-longest women's match in French Open history to eliminate Sara Sorribes Tormo. In less climactic news, Women's No. 1 Iga Swiatek advanced in a walkover after Lesia Tsurenko retired trailing 5-1 in the first set. As always, all Tennis Odds & Lines are taken from DraftKings Sportsbook, but prospective bettors should feel free to search for the best lines available for these matches by checking mobile sportsbooks such as FanDuel Sportsbook, BetMGM, Caesars Sportsbook, or any of the other best sports betting sites.
As a reminder, the men play best-of-five-set matches at Grand Slams, while women's matches are best of three just like the remainder of the WTA Tour schedule. In order to make our picks, we consider things like career records at Roland Garros, recent form, and head-to-head match scores against an opponent where available. We will highlight underdogs in the first section labeled "Upset Alert," while significant favorites will be listed in the "Lock it in" section. Finally, we'll take a look at players who can be had at a bargain in the "Value Bet" section.
Upset Alert
Elina Svitolina (+340) vs. Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka seemed to be on her way to a comfortable quarterfinal birth in her fourth-round match against Sloane Stephens before the wheels came off at 5-0 in the first frame. The Belarussian would go on to lose six of the next seven games before eking out the set in a tiebreak. While that was the first appearance of an error-riddled Sabalenka we've seen in some time, it makes me incredibly nervous about riding with her as such a big favorite, as Svitolina has been broken just six times in her four matches at Roland Garros. This speaks to a level of consistency that may be absent from the game of the Women's No. 2 at the moment, and a straight-set win against Sabalenka on clay in Strasbourg during the 2020 season reminds us that Svitolina has no trouble absorbing pace. While Sabalenka was able to recover against an opponent in Stevens who also has a tendency to lose focus, she will need to be at the top of her game throughout if she wants to best the resurgent Ukranian.
Lock it In
Carlos Alcaraz (-450) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
There isn't much daylight between these two when it comes to match statistics in this tournament, but Alcaraz has beaten the Greek player in all four of their previous meetings, the last of which was a straight-set victory on clay in April. We got a taste of what the World No. 1 can do when he is in top form in Round 4, as he routinely dispatched an extremely talented Lorenzo Musetti, who hadn't dropped a set prior to meeting Alcaraz. Meanwhile, Tsitsipas has yet to face a top-50 player in Paris, which doesn't tell me he's ready to take on someone who has notched a 24-2 record on clay this season.
Honorable Mention
Novak Djokovic (-1100) vs. Karen Khachanov
Value Bets
Karolina Muchova (-180) vs. Anastasia Pavlyuchenkova
Pavlyuchenkova has had to work extraordinarily hard to reach the quarterfinals, including a three-set match in which she was down a set and a break to Elise Mertens before turning her fortune around. The Russian player has a win over her Czech counterpart on clay, but I can't weigh that too heavily when she has been broken a whopping 25 more times than Muchova (44:19) through her four matches. I may have considered this a value play even before we had to contend with the reduction of the playing field, as Muchova has been far more solid and more able to put opponents away.
