This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
For the second day in a row, the Arthur Ashe Stadium crowd will have a chance to cheer for an American first-time Grand Slam finalist. Taylor Fritz will be looking to end the 21-year Grand Slam title drought for American men, but the 12th-seeded underdog will have his work cut out for him against world No. 1 Jannik Sinner, who is looking for his second hard-court Grand Slam title of 2024.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams are best of five sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Sunday's championship match.
U.S. Open Odds: Sinner vs. Fritz
Jannik Sinner (-425) vs. Taylor Fritz (+320)
Sinner has been by far the best hard-court player on the planet in 2024, with a (33-2) overall record on the surface, including a perfect 13-0 mark at Grand Slams. The top-ranked Italian's performance at this tournament has cemented his dominance, as he has dropped only two sets en route to the final despite having about his B-minus game throughout the U.S. Open. Fritz has the superior serve, but Sinner has the edge in just about every other category, with a better forehand and backhand, as well as more agile movement. Neither player is the most comfortable at net, but both are capable volleyers who can benefit from moving forward in this match when they get on the front foot in baseline rallies. Sinner injured his left wrist on a fall in the second set of his 7-5, 7-6 (3), 6-2 semifinal win over Jack Draper, but the injury didn't prevent him from continuing to hit his two-handed backhand effectively for the remainder of that match and seems unlikely to have a noticeable effect on this match.
Fritz will need to meet the moment with an inspired performance to have a chance, and making a high percentage of first serves will be key for Fritz in order to hold serve consistently and keep some scoreboard pressure on his favored opponent. Unfortunately for Fritz, breaks of serve will likely be hard to come by and Sinner has been nearly unbeatable in tiebreaks, winning 15 of his last 16. The American will enjoy a favorable environment, as a U.S. Open crowd that gave majority support to Fritz's compatriot Frances Tiafoe in their five-set semifinal showdown will happily return to Fritz's corner as he tries to break an American men's major title drought that dates back to Andy Roddick at the 2023 U.S. Open. Sinner and Fritz have split two previous meetings, both at Indian Wells. That was also a highly favorable environment for Fritz, as he grew up right by where that tournament is played in California and won his only career Masters 1000 there in 2022. Fritz beat Sinner there 6-4, 6-3 in 2021, but Sinner got revenge in 2023, 6-4, 4-6, 6-4. Sinner has taken another big step forward in his game this year, and the hard courts at this year's U.S. Open are playing substantially faster than the notoriously slow hard courts at Indian Wells, which should help add even more bite to Sinner's more powerful groundstrokes.
U.S. Open Men's Final Prediction: Sinner def. Fritz 6-2, 6-7, 7-6, 6-4
