This article is part of our Tennis Picks series.
The Miami Open women's singles championship match will be played Saturday afternoon. This rematch of the 2024 US Open final features two of the top four seeds facing off in another pivotal clash on American hard courts.
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All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint the best tennis bets today for Saturday's championship match.
Miami Open Odds: Sabalenka vs. Pegula
Aryna Sabalenka (-300) vs. Jessica Pegula (+225)
Sabalenka's looking to get back on track in championship matches, having lost the Australian Open final to Madison Keys and Indian Wells final to Mirra Andreeva in a pair of tight three-setters. Just pushing the world No. 1 to three sets has been an accomplishment, as Andreeva is the only player to win a set off Sabalenka in the Belarusian's last 11 matches. Sabalenka has been overpowering opponents on the hard courts of the Miami Open so far, cruising to this point despite facing three top-15 opponents. She leads Pegula 6-2 in their head-to-head, and seven of their last eight matches were won in straight sets by Sabalenka. Their most recent meeting was a 7-5, 7-5 Sabalenka victory in the final of the 2024 US Open.
Pegula has benefited from a lucky draw here, as 29th-ranked Marta Kostyuk is the highest-ranked opponent Pegula has faced at the Miami Open. Credit still goes to the fourth-seeded American for beating the players in front of her, including a 7-6 (3), 5-7, 6-3 semifinal win that ended 19-year-old Alexandra Eala's Cinderella run. Pegula has a lower ceiling than Sabalenka and will likely need some assistance from the favorite via errors to pull off the upset. The underdog will hope to get some looks at second serves and apply pressure through aggressive returning, which is arguably the best attribute of Pegula's game. If Sabalenka holds her nerve, this will be an uphill battle for Pegula, but Sabalenka has gone through rough patches before and could have some doubts creep in if this match stays close after losing a pair of tightly contested finals already in 2025.
Miami Open Women's Final Prediction: Sabalenka def. Pegula 6-3, 7-6
