2025 U.S. Open: Heavily Favored American on Upset Alert Thursday
Second-round play rolls on Thursday at the U.S. Open from the hard courts of the USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center in New York. A couple of American favorites could be in trouble Thursday if they don't clean up their games, while some players who have found success at the U.S. Open previously seem to be finding their form here again.
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All men's singles matches at Grand Slams such as the U.S. Open are best of five sets, while women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities, both among favorites likely to cruise to victory and underdogs ready to pull off upsets. The aforementioned underdogs are highlighted in the Upset Alert section, the Lock It In section covers players who can safely be viewed as favorites, while the Value Bets section recommends enticing options in matchups that are considered closer to toss-ups.
U.S. Open Tennis Picks: Upset Alert
Magdalena Frech (+160) vs. Peyton Stearns
Stearns has had some bad losses recently, going 3-8 in her last 11 matches while taking three defeats against opponents outside the top 100, including a loss to 45-year-old Venus Williams a month ago. Frech has struggled to find consistency herself in 2025 but has a 16-spot edge in the rankings at No. 33. Even with the crowd in Stearns' corner, it's hard to see the American as much of a favorite in this match given her recent results.
Donna Vekic (+600) vs. Coco Gauff
Gauff has struggled since claiming the second Grand Slam title of her career at the French Open, with just a 5-4 record in nine subsequent matches while dealing with significant serving issues. She found a way to win ugly in the first round against Ajla Tomljanovic, 6-4, 6-7 (2), 7-5 despite another double-digit double fault performance, but the big-hitting Vekic is better equipped to punish Gauff's weak second serves when they find their way into the service box. Vekic has had a down year to drop to 49th in the rankings, but she's a former U.S. Open quarterfinalist and reached the semifinals of Wimbledon last year, so she knows how to perform on big stages. Vekic can swing freely as the underdog, especially after coming back from 6-3, 4-2 down in the first round against an in-form opponent in Jessica Bouzas Maneiro.
Honorable Mention
Daniel Altmaier (+225) vs. Stefanos Tsitsipas
U.S. Open Tennis Odds: Lock It In
Francisco Cerundolo (-240) vs. Leandro Riedi
Cerundolo had some rust to shake off in the first round in his return from a nearly month-long absence due to an abdominal injury, but he found his game just in time to erase a two-set deficit against 64th-ranked Matteo Arnaldi in the first round. Barring an aggravation of the injury, the No. 19 seed should have little trouble dealing with the 435th-ranked Riedi, who didn't have a main draw win on the ATP Tour this year and had just a 3-10 career record prior to his first-round win over clay-courter Pedro Martinez. Cerundolo is much more comfortable on hard courts, with an 11-5 record on the surface this year, and he should control play with his excellent forehand in this matchup.
Karen Khachanov (-380) vs. Kamil Majchrzak
Khachanov had no trouble in this matchup when Majchrzak was having the tournament of his life at Wimbledon, as the Russian cruised to a straight-sets win in the fourth round there to improve to 4-0 in their head-to-head. The only other time Majchrzak made even the third round of a Grand Slam or Masters 1000 event was back at the 2019 U.S. Open, and he hadn't won a U.S. Open main draw match since then prior to this year's first round. That Wimbledon win for Khachanov was part of a greater 12-3 stretch that has catapulted Khachanov back up to No. 9 in the rankings, 67 spots ahead of Majchrzak.
Honorable Mention
Naomi Osaka (-450) vs. Hailey Baptiste
U.S. Open Tennis Predictions: Value Bets
Beatriz Haddad Maia (-150) vs. Viktorija Golubic
Haddad Maia has struggled this year but reached the quarterfinals of the U.S. Open last year and looks to be starting another solid run here as the No. 18 seed. She enjoyed tremendous support from the Brazilian fans in her 6-3, 1-6, 6-1 first-round win over 51st-ranked Sonay Kartal and has a favorable second-round draw against the 72nd-ranked Golubic, who is just 3-16 in hard-court Grand Slam main draw matches in her career. Haddad Maia's edge in power should help her push back Golubic, whose tricky game works better on the natural clay and grass surfaces.
Jenson Brooksby (+125) vs. Flavio Cobolli
Similarly to Italian compatriot Lorenzo Musetti, Cobolli has a deep Wimbledon run (QFs this year) under his belt to go with consistent clay-court success, but his hard-court results leave a lot to be desired. The 24th-seeded Italian is just 6-11 on hard courts this year and needed five sets to scrape by 120th-ranked Francesco Passaro in the first round. Brooksby's much more comfortable on hard courts and has been to the Round of 16 at the U.S. Open before, while Cobolli will have to deal with discomfort on multiple fronts, facing Brooksby's unconventional groundstrokes and a partisan American crowd.
Honorable Mention
Gabriel Diallo (-115) vs. Jaume Munar
