The Australian Open women's final will be played Saturday on the hard courts of Rod Laver Arena at Melbourne Park in Melbourne, Australia. Aryna Sabalenka and Elena Rybakina have overpowered the opposition to both reach the final without dropping a set, setting up a rematch of the 2023 Australian Open championship match, which was won by Sabalenka. That was the fist of Sabalenka's four hard-court Grand Slam titles, while Rybakina's only Grand Slam title to this point came on grass at Wimbledon in 2022.
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All women's singles matches are best of three sets. A mix of players' previous hard court results, recent form and stylistic matchups can help pinpoint intriguing betting opportunities in Saturday's Australian Open women's championship match.
Australian Open Tennis Picks: Sabalenka vs. Rybakina
Aryna Sabalenka (-165) vs. Elena Rybakina (+135)
These two deserving finalists have dominated the field with superb power tennis, capitalizing on the fast hard-court conditions at the Australian Open. Neither player has dropped a set, which is a more impressive feat for Rybakina considering she faced No. 2 seed Iga Swiatek and No. 6 seed Jessica Pegula in her last two matches, while the highest seed Sabalenka has faced is No. 12 Elina Svitolina. Sabalenka's the superior player overall and has been remarkably consistent, as she'll be playing in a seventh consecutive hard-court Grand Slam final. The top-ranked Belarusian hasn't typically played her best tennis under the immense pressure of major finals, but despite her performances ranging from poor to decent by her extremely lofty standards, Sabalenka has still found a way to win four of her seven previous Grand Slam finals, including a 4-6, 6-3, 6-4 win over Rybakina in the final of the 2023 Australian Open, which was Sabalenka's first Grand Slam title.
Sabalenka leads the head-to-head over Rybakina 8-6 overall, but Rybakina has a 6-5 edge on hard courts, and the latter has won six of their 10 matchups since that Australian Open final. Their most recent encounter came in the championship match of the WTA Finals in Wuhan, where Rybakina prevailed 6-3, 7-6 (0). Sabalenka has a bit more variety, which should allow her to get an edge in longer rallies, but there are unlikely to be many of those in this match with both players looking to finish points quickly with power off both wings. The most important shot in this match will be Rybakina's serve. The No. 5 seed has served double-digit aces in two of her last three matches. She got by despite making 55 percent or fewer of her first serves against both Swiatek and Pegula, but Rybakina will likely need to get her first serve percentage back up over 60 percent like it was in her first four matches here in order to beat the best hard-court player of this generation. When Rybakina and Sabalenka faced off indoors at the WTA Finals, Rybakina made two-thirds of her first serves, smashed 13 aces and wasn't broken.
Australian Open Women's Final Prediction: Rybakina def. Sabalenka 4-6, 7-5, 6-4
