This article is part of our MLB Picks series.
ALCS Game 6 Preview:
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers, Oct. 22
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Will There Be a Game 7?
There is nothing better than a Game 7 whether it is in the MLB, NBA or the NHL playoffs and both the NLCS and ALCS series have the chance to provide us with a dramatic Game 7. In the ALCS the road team has won all the games and has given the reigning world champion Houston Astros 3-2 edge entering tonight's Game 6. With a win over the Texas Rangers, the Astros return to the World Series to defend their championship and with a loss, they will play for the right to go to the World Series.
Only one other time in the past 20 seasons has a seven-game playoff series sen the road team win the first six games. That was in the 2019 season when the Astros and Washington Nationals saw all seven games being won by the road team. With a 3-2 series lead heading back to Houston, the Astros failed to close out that World Series losing Game 6 by a final score of 7-2 and then losing Game 7 by a final score of 6-2. The current edition of the Astros is a vastly more formidable offense and I do not see them failing to score an abundance of runs in either game.
The Starters for Game 6
The Texas Rangers have the edge in starting pitching sending Nathan Eovaldi to the hill to face the Astros' Framber Valdez. Eovaldi is making his 29th start of the season and has posted a 15-5 record with a 3.46 ERA and a 1.106 WHIP including 156 strikeouts over 163.2 innings of work. Over his last three starts, all in the playoffs, he has amassed a quite strong 2.29 ERA and a 0.864 WHIP with 24 strikeouts and one walk over 19.2 innings of work.
Valdez has logged a ton of innings over the past two seasons and that heavy workload is showing in his recent starts. He will be making his 34th start with a 12-13 record, 3.73 ERA, 1.171 WHIP and including 211 strikeouts spanning 205 innings of work. Over his last three starts, he has posted a 9.82 ERA, and 2.545 WHIP with 18 strikeouts and nine walks over just 11 innings of work. In two playoff starts, he has been hammered to the tune of an 11.57 ERA and a horrid 2.571 WHIP with 11 strikeouts and four walks over just seven innings of work.
Valdez could be suffering from a "tired arm" injury where many times the hand goes numb temporarily after a pitch. When this happens you will see the pitcher shaking his hand as if he is trying to loosen up his shoulder, but it is the hand and fingers that he is trying to get back to a sense of feeling. I am guessing, but I have been around baseball for more than three decades and I have seen this before and the injury is always accompanied by a significant loss of control and an increase in the number of walks. I am surprised that Dusty Baker has elected to go with him for this incredibly important game tonight.
The Bullpen Edge Goes to the Astros
The reason why Baker may be opting to take a risk and start Valdez is that he knows he has the vastly better bullpen right now. The Rangers need Eovaldi to log as many scoreless innings as possible knowing their bullpen has posted a 4.12 ERA and a 1.297 WHIP, allowing six home runs, 33 strikeouts and 22 walks in the playoffs. The Astros have posted a 2.19 ERA and a 0.811 WHIP with 45 strikeouts, 11 walks, and just three home runs allowed in 37 innings of work.
Situational Betting Algorithm Supports the Rangers
The following betting algorithm has produced a 35-15 record for 70% winners averaging a -105 wager over the past five seasons. Betting on road teams with a solid starter posting an ERA of 3.50 or lower on the season, are priced between a 125 dog and a -125 favorite and facing a host that is hitting no better than 0.260 on the season.
My Best Bet for Game 6 of the 2023 ALCS is on the Texas Rangers using the money line offered by DraftKings. So, yes there will be a Game 7 Tuesday Night.
