Closer Encounters: 2024 Closer Rankings 3.0

Since the last iteration of these rankings went live in early February, a lot has changed in the closer landscape.

Devin Williams was diagnosed with stress fractures in his back and will miss approximately three months. The White Sox traded Gregory Santos, leaving closing duties open for the taking in Chicago. Tanner Scott has issued seven walks through 2.2 spring innings. My favorite relief pitcher target for 2024 drafts — Matt Brash — suffered an elbow injury that was initially thought to be season-ending, but turned out to be merely inflammation.

At the time of this writing, there are still unsettled closing situations in Milwaukee, San Diego, Chicago (both the White Sox and Cubs), Oakland, Detroit, Philadelphia, Colorado, Kansas City and possibly Miami. That has resulted in considerable movement within these rankings. Before we get to those, let's revisit Step 1 of my rankings process.

When I posted my initial closer rankings for the 2024 season, many of the top sports betting sites had not yet released team over/under totals. Using the latest projections and betting lines, most teams only had swings of one or two wins (and just one save) in either direction. Others had no changes at all.

2024 Projected Wins & Saves by Team (Update)

With updated win and save projections for each team, I combed through my personal save projections and did some tweaking. Below the updated rankings, I've included several notable risers and fallers. Feel free to share your thoughts in the comments section.

Also, be sure to bookmark our Closer Grid for all the latest closer updates, including team blurbs, hierarchy changes and my closer-in-waiting rankings.

2024 Closer Rankings 3.0

Dropped out of the Top 70: A.J. Puk (preparing to start), Scott Effross (injured), Garrett Whitlock (candidate for starting rotation), JoJo Romero (battling control issues), Woo-suk Go (rough spring, likely has work to do to ascend SD leverage ladder), Nick Anderson (was too optimistic re: save projection), Chad Green (just missed the cut), Lucas Erceg (shifted some of his projected saves to Jimenez), Gregory Soto (just missed the cut), Prelander Berroa (dealing with shoulder injury), Jose Soriano (preparing to start), Tanner Rainey (just missed the cut), Ben Joyce (too wild)

RISERS

Evan Phillips, Dodgers: The Dodgers flirted with signing Josh Hader and have been mentioned as a possible landing spot for Kenley Jansen if he's traded. However, Phillips stands as Los Angeles' best option to close, having posted a dominant 1.74 ERA, 0.83 WHIP and 152:33 K:BB across 134.2 innings during his time with the Dodgers. The 29-year-old notched 24 saves in 27 chances last season and has been my biggest closer target in recent drafts. I've drafted him ahead of ADP and I'm comfortable drafting him as my CL1. I currently have him projected for a 70 percent team save percentage, but he's certainly capable of surpassing that mark in 2024.

Clay Holmes, Yankees: Holmes opened last season as the Yankees' high-leverage reliever, mixing in closing duties with work in the seventh and eighth innings. However, all but two of his 28 outings following the All-Star break came in the ninth inning or later. Aaron Boone recently called Holmes "our closer," which puts him in position to easily challenge the career-best 24 saves he racked up last year. I might actually be conservative projecting him for a 70 percent team save share, as 30-plus saves could be on the horizon.

Andres Munoz, Mariners: I'm still cautious since Munoz always seems to be dealing with some sort of injury, but his biggest competitors for saves in Seattle — Matt Brash (elbow) and Gregory Santos (lat) — are currently hurt. By default, he gets a boost to his save projection — from a 50 percent team share to 60 percent.

Andrew Nardi, Marlins: With Tanner Scott struggling this spring, I'm loading up on Nardi shares. Granted, he's had some control issues as well, but he has yet to allow a run through 4.2 spring innings. Nardi was one of the best in the league at limiting hard contact last year with a 99th percentile average exit velocity allowed (84.6 mph) and 98th percentile hard-hit rate (27.3 percent). While his 8.9 percent walk rate was a little high, he was 26th among qualified relievers with a 21.9% K-BB percentage. Given all the injuries to Miami's starting pitchers, A.J. Puk and Ryan Weathers look likely to make the starting rotation, which moves Nardi up the leverage ladder.

Joel Payamps, Abner Uribe, Trevor Megill, Brewers: Brewers manager Pat Murphy doesn't plan to name a closer anytime soon, but my favorite target out of this trio is Uribe. He may not get the first opportunity to close, but has the most upside with a triple-digit fastball and devastating slider combination. As the veteran, Payamps might get the first crack at closing duties for Milwaukee, but prior to last season he was a journeyman reliever. Megill posted a 35.1 percent strikeout rate last season, so don't count him out of contention for this role.

FALLERS

Devin Williams, Brewers: This is no surprise given his expected absence. I was conservative with his save projection (11), and some projection systems are a bit higher than that. I think Milwaukee's performance overall combined with the success of their relievers in Williams' absence will impact his return date. If the Brewers are clearly out of contention around mid-June, they'll have no reason to rush him back.

David Bednar, Pirates: Bednar is the most notable faller in these rankings. He has yet to make a Grapefruit League appearance this spring, as he experienced lat tightness earlier this month. He was scheduled to throw a bullpen session on Friday, but no news has surfaced since then. Bednar still has time to get ready for Opening Day, but his status could be in question if he can't ramp up in time. I shaved a few saves off of his projected total for this season. As a result, he slips a few spots in the rankings.

Tanner Scott, Marlins: Scott proved his upside with his remarkable outputs in 2023, but Scott looks lost on the mound right now. Seven walks through 2.2 innings this spring does not inspire much confidence in Scott opening the season as the Marlins closer. As such, I've reduced his save projection from 24 to 15. Even if he does find his command, he's a free agent after this season and is likely to be traded if Miami isn't contending.

Alex Lange, Tigers: Lange gets a ton of whiffs thanks to his elite curveball and effective changeup, but his 15.6 percent walk rate last season was 2nd-worst among qualified relievers. Somehow, he still managed to record 26 saves, but with Detroit ascending in the American League Central division, their patience in Lange as their closer may be wearing thin. Jason Foley is a capable alternative should the Tigers wish to make a switch, while Shelby Miller and Andrew Chafin could end up pitching the ninth as well.

Best of luck during the home stretch of fantasy baseball draft season!