Collette Calls: 2025 AL Central Bold Predictions

Let's now dig into the AL Central, which should once again be a fascinating division. The White Sox cannot possibly be as bad as they were last year, but they don't look much better on paper. Cleveland had an improbable run last season to win the division under rookie manager Stephen Vogt, while Detroit captured our hearts with their strong close and improbable postseason appearance. The Royals certainly had their moments but ran out of magic, while the Twins were, well, the Twins and disappointed us. Below are 10 players for all league types who I feel deserve more attention for a variety of reasons.

All ADP references are from 58 Draft Champion leagues from December 1st through January 4th.

Chicago

Lenyn Sosa is a top-30 second baseman (ADP 472)

Sosa is currently 42nd on the second base rankings, going as high as 359 and as low as 625. Chicago will continue their de facto open tryout roster situation this season as they look to improve on their record-setting season of 2024, and Sosa should have every chance to fail in this lineup. He has youth on his side (25), he has talent (110-plus mph max exit velo), but more importantly, he is out of options. Sosa has been up and down between Chicago and Charlotte the past few seasons, but now he has to stay up in Chicago or risk being exposed to the Marlins on waivers.

The White Sox have absolutely nothing else ready to play second base on the organizational depth chart unless they wish to aggressively push Rikuu Nishida, who is 5-foot-6 in cleats but also just scored 114 runs and stole 49 bases while spending most of the season in North Carolina with me between Kannapolis and Winston-Salem. David Hamilton is currently the 30th-ranked second baseman and is going over 100 spots ahead of Sosa even though Hamilton lacks what Sosa is all but guaranteed: an everyday spot in the lineup. 

Sosa's career numbers in the majors have been accumulated over essentially a full season at the big-league level, and they're admittedly rather hideous. However, he showed signs of improvement as the season went on, and now the White Sox can't easily pull the rip cord:

Sosa could even hit his way up the Chicago lineup, especially if he can continue to build upon last season's late growth:

The gut reaction is to look at the White Sox team and discard it all as if they're baseball's version of the Cleveland Browns, but even Jerry Jeudy had fantasy value this season for that terrible squad. 

Gus Varland leads the club in saves (ADP 751)

Let's put this prediction into context: among White Sox pitchers, only Sean Burke and Noah Schultz have gone in every Draft Champions draft thus far. Nobody on this team has an ADP inside the top 420 because this team, even if they improve their win total by 50 percent, would still be a 100-loss team. That context essentially removes all of their starting pitchers from fantasy value in most formats, although I understand why Burke, Noah Schultz and Davis Martin can be on draft-and-hold teams or AL-Only leagues with bench streaming options. Simply put, if a starter wins 10 games on this club, they should receive a Cy Young vote.

However, someone has to earn saves for this club, and even Michael Kopech had nine saves before being dealt away. John Brebbia and Tanner Banks are no longer around, leaving Jordan Leasure and Justin Anderson with the most returning saves on the bullpen depth chart thanks to the three saves that duo combined to earn last season. In the absence of leadership, there is opportunity. This is the projected bullpen situation in Chicago as things stand now:

The market currently considers Berroa the favorite for that role, but his ADP is 586, which says that 30-man rosters in 15-team leagues aren't even touching him. Berroa is the only White Sox reliever with an ADP inside the top 600, so someone from this group of misfits is going to jump in and get saves with this club. Whoever gets the job is going to have a double-digit save total because if Kopech can save nine games for a 30-something win club before the break, someone can save 15-ish games for a team that cannot possibly be as bad as they were last year.

Varland is admittedly all fastball, but he at least has an idea of where it's going. Berroa has the fastball too, but location is a problem for him. Nobody is demonstrably more qualified than anyone else in this bullpen, but since the market is zigging to Berroa, I am suggesting you zag toward Varland as one other drafter has done already, as Varland has gone in just one of the aofrementioned 58 draft-and-hold drafts in the past month. 

Cleveland

Jhonkensy Noel is a top-60 outfielder (ADP 380)

I really want this guy to be the next Marcell Ozuna, because the power tools are there. We saw Big Christmas do damage in the postseason, and I'm excited to see what he can do over the course of a full season at the big-league level. Noel has never been a stolen-base source in his career, but he's provided plenty of run production around some poor batting averages...until 2024. Noel raked in his second season in Triple-A hitting .295/.359/.578 before his promotion. 

He combined to hit 31 homers between the two levels, which is the second time he's hit at least 30 homers in season over the last three years. The club will be looking for more offense after it dealt away Josh Naylor in the offseason, who was a significant source of run production for the club. Naylor was replaced by Carlos Santana and the club hopes that Kyle Manzardo can take a step forward as well. 

There is an extreme amount of risk in this skillset and he could end up being more like another version of what Eloy Jimenez currently is rather than what Ozuna has evolved into. Noel is not projected for any everyday role at this time, but I would argue he has more upside than anyone not named Jose Ramirez in this lineup. His current ADP is costing you a reserve pick in the 25th round of 15-team leagues, and this big power upside is precisely the type of player to target in those rounds. The acquisition cost isn't high, but the return on investment could play out extremely well because the conditions that made Cleveland a favorable offensive environment are still very much present this season. 

Emmanuel Clase does not finish as a top-five closer (ADP 34)

Clase is the top closer going off the board and the sixth overall pitcher on the pitching ADP charts. There's no doubt he's earned it, because he's been absolutely dominant over the past four full seasons. He is first or second for all relievers in the following categories since the start of the 2021 season:

• Saves: 157
• Games: 297
• fWAR: 8.5 (next is Devin Williams at 6.3)
• ERA: 1.62
• IP: 289.1 (Tyler Rogers 301.0)
• WHIP: 0.87 (Tyler Holton 0.83)
• Stuff+: 151

So, why am I stating he will not be a top five closer this season despite that impressive resume? It comes down to history:

Someone can always become first, but if Hall of Fame closers such as Mariano Rivera, Trevor Hoffman, Dennis Eckersley and Billy Wagner (it's happening!) couldn't pull off four consecutive seasons of 40-plus saves as well as 70-plus games pitched, why is it a lock that Clase can do it? 

Eric Gagne ended his three-year run of dominance from 2002-2004 the following season when an early knee injury delayed his start to the season, and then his elbow gave out on him requiring him to have season-ending elbow surgery as a nerve was entrapped by scar tissue from his 1997 Tommy John surgery. Melancon, after his four-year run, pitched 30 innings in 2017 while dealing with elbow tendonitis. Then we have how rare even four seasons in a career with 40 or more saves is, as the complete list is shown below:

Noticeably absent from that list is the fact none of them ever had four consecutive seasons of 40-plus saves, while Clase is attempting to increase his saves total for a fifth consecutive season, as it's gone from 24 to 42 to 44 to 47 over the past four years. 

Vogt leaned on his bullpen heavily last season, as the club led all clubs in games pitched by relievers and featured seven relievers with at least 50 appearances, four of whom pitched at least 74 games last season. I have concerns about how this bullpen will bounce back from its heavy usage last season, and those concerns start with Clase given the history he's up against. Clase is currently costing you a third-round draft pick to get that primary closer locked up early, but I said all of this to caution you on banking on his normal level of success given that you're expecting him to do something no other reliever has ever done. 

Detroit

Dillon Dingler is a top-30 catcher (ADP 654)

I would consider this bold because Dingler is currently 54th on the catcher ADP reports, some 275 spots behind 30th-ranked Endy Rodriguez at 388. Dingler isn't projected to be the starting catcher for the Tigers because the club loves Jake Rogers for his defense, with good reason. Rogers is an outstanding pitch blocker and pitch framer, and he does an above-average job of controlling the running game. Yet as good as Rogers is behind the plate, he struggles offensively. 

Rogers has the lowest batting average (.209) among all catchers with at least 600 plate appearances over the past two seasons. He also has the highest strikeout rate (30.9%) along with the third-worst OBP (.271). This is "prime" Austin Hedges territory, and Hedges had his playing time capped below 350 plate appearances despite his awesome defense as well. This is where I see the opportunity for Dingler. 

Dingler was admittedly overmatched in his time with Detroit last season but showed strong plate skills in the organization in 2023 and 2024, accepting walks in just over 10 percent of his plate appearances across three levels of baseball. Most notably, he improved his contact rate in Toledo last season, striking out 20.3 percent of the time in 301 plate appearances after striking out at a 31.2 percent clip in 109 plate appearances the year prior. Dingler and Rogers are both righties, so there's no natural platoon situation to employ, and I would expect their utilization to be influenced by which catcher the starting pitcher wishes to throw to. Catcher ERA isn't the thing to go by, but Rogers accepted every pitch Tarik Skubal threw last season, so we know that situation isn't going to change any time soon. 

"Prime" Hedges eventually gave way to the offensive upside of Francisco Mejia in San Diego, and I can envision a similar situation playing out in Detroit considering how highly A.J. Hinch thinks of Dingler. 

Beau Brieske leads Detroit in saves (ADP 498)

Unless Detroit surprises us all and goes out and grabs one of Tanner Scott, Carlos Estevez or Jeff Hoffman, they appear to be coming into 2025 with the same bullpen names they ran with in 2024. Jason Foley led the club with 28 saves in 32 chances, overcoming a rough summer in which he saved just four games in two months around a 4.76 ERA, 1.47 WHIP and an abysmal 5.3% K-BB. Foley did finish the season downright unhittable, with 13 saves in his final 14 chances, allowing 11 hits in 22.2 innings with 20 strikeouts. 

Foley, in doing so, was one of just two closers (alongside Alexis Diaz) to save at least 25 games with a K-BB% below 10.5 percent. There were no such closers in 2023 with those numbers, and the only one in 2022 was former Tiger Gregory Soto, who was dealt away by the club after that season to Philadelphia. Simply put, we have not seen too many closers get away with what Foley did in 2024 and sustain long-term success. 

Foley lives and dies by his sinker, and how the Luck Dragons treat the pitch determines how successful he is. The market is not crazy about Foley because he is currently being drafted in the 28th round of 12-team mixed drafts. Should Detroit stay in house, we should consider the alternatives, and I like what I see in Brieske:

Brieske has a starter-like repertoire with the ability to throw four different pitch types to both righties and lefties, which is one of the reasons I was so drawn into Jeff Hoffman this time last year. Brieske's fastball/changeup combination has been tough on hitters to both put into play and to hit for homers, and he can miss more bats when needed than Foley can. Brieke's double-digit walk rate is a risk in its own right, and much of that was backloaded with 17 walks in 31.2 innings after the end of July. 

This would be another example of learning from previous history and how entrenched closers with suspect K-BB% tend to not hold onto their job for long. Foley seems primed for another slump to lose his grip on the full-time closer role. The last closer who put up such a low K-BB% and went onto repeat it was Jim Johnson when he saved 50 games in 2013 after a a 51-save season with a 9.7% K-BB in 2012, but the other eight closers on the list between Foley and Johnson all lost their job the following year. 

Kansas City

Jonathan India is a top-15 second baseman (ADP 256)

India would need to jump four rounds to overtake Gleyber Torres, who is currently 15th at second base by ADP and going at pick 203. I like India quite a bit this season, as he'll be hitting leadoff in front of the potent trio of Bobby Witt Jr., Vinnie Pasquantino and Salvador Perez. That is an upgrade from the trio of Elly De La Cruz, Jeimer Candelario and Spencer Steer, who were the most frequent two, three and four hitters behind India last season. 

The ballpark change hurt India's chances of ever hitting 20-plus homers again, but the 98 runs he scored in 2021 could certainly be challenged this year if India could post a second consecutive healthy season. The 14 steals which are currently his career high could also be threatened, because it seems unlikely teams would pitch around Witt Jr. only to open up double-steal opportunities and make it easier for Pasquantino and Perez to drive those runners in. 

India should be able to embrace an all-fields approach in Kansas City, while a divisional schedule against the Twins, Guardians and White Sox features three teams that are in the bottom half of the league in controlling the running game. Last season, we were surprised when Jarren Duran scored 111 runs for Boston while the rest of the 100-run club was mostly chalk. 2025 could see India join that club with the volume of playing time and supporting cast he has around in him in Kansas City. 

Noah Cameron is a top-200 pitcher (ADP 683)

Kansas City (and fantasy managers) knew what they had in Cole Ragans, but the club surprised us with what they also got out of Seth Lugo and Michael Wacha last season. They even got the most out of Kris Bubic as he returned from injury in a short stint, while Alec Marsh was also rather serviceable. In all, Kansas City got at least 25 starts from five different pitchers and is the only team that can claim such an honor from this past season. Kansas City in 2024 and Houston in 2022 are the only teams in the past three seasons to have five pitchers make at least 25 starts, and only eight other teams have joined them since 2015, with only the Cubs on the list twice (2016 and 2019). Simply put, someone is very likely going down in this rotation in 2025, and Cameron will be the next man up.

Cameron has yet to pitch in the majors, but he's done extremely well in the minors the past few seasons. He had a 30.7% K-BB in 65.2 innings for the system in 2022, a 20.8% K-BB% in 107.1 innings in 2023, and pitched to a 21.1% K-BB% in 128.2 innings between Double-A and Triple-A last season. The former University of Central Arkansas pitcher has struck out 29.9 percent of the hitters he has faced as a minor leaguer, besting his 25.1 percent rate from his collegiate days. His strikeouts are manufactured more by his secondary stuff than by any big velocity, so he must stay ahead in counts to take full advantage of his arsenal and not fall into predictable fastball situations. 

Cameron was added to the 40-man roster in November, so the Royals see something there, and their recent track record of getting the most out of guys lately (especially Wacha) should allow them to find success with Cameron, whose similar approach to pitching profiles as a southpaw version of Wacha. 

Minnesota

Emmanuel Rodriguez is a top-75 outfielder (ADP 510)

Rodriguez is currently 118th on the outfield ADP rankings and is recovering from surgery to repair a ligament tear in his right thumb. He's expected to be ready for camp after a procedure which was necessary because he was limited to 47 games played last season due to the lingering effects of a thumb injury. He hurt the thumb in early June on a head-first slide into second and didn't get back on the field until the end of the season. 

I'm excited about Rodriguez's fantasy potential both because he's rather unique in what he does and because of the historical situation in Minnesota's outfield. The Twins have not had three outfielders get at least 400 plate appearances in the same season since Marwin Gonzalez, Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario did so in 2019. Willi Castro and Trevor Larnach pulled it off last season, but as long as Byron Buxton is on the depth chart, the club is unlikely to see three outfielders dominate the playing time. Enter the opportunity for Rodriguez to shine. 

Rodriguez has the power, speed and defense to be a major-league regular and has earned an overall 55 grade on the 20-80 scouting scale. He has but 30 plate appearances above Double-A but has been fun to watch as he walks nearly as often as he strikes out, which he does in bunches. Last season, he had a 24.4 percent walk rate and a 29.7 percent strikeout rate in his 209 plate appearances, which was close to the 20.2 percent walk rate and 29.5 percent strikeout rate he had in 2023 as well as the 28.6 percent walk rate and 26.1 percent strikeout rate he had in 2022. There is certainly an extreme amount of risk associated with his profile, but the raw talent would be fun to watch and could give the club a leadoff hitter who works counts and accepts walks. That role is currently staffed by Willi Castro, so it's not as if there are immovable objects in Rodriguez's way. 

He could very well spend the year in Triple-A St. Paul with just a few callups over the course of the season, but after watching Jackson Chourio successfully make the jump from Double-A to the majors, I'm no longer so quick to dismiss players' chances of making the climb up the minor-league ladder a level at a time. 

David Festa is a top-75 pitcher (ADP 284)

Festa is currently 114th by ADP for pitchers just behind Bubba Chandler and Luis Severino. Festa spent his time in both of the Twin Cities last season, striking out 163 batters in 124.2 innings with 18 homers allowed and 49 walks. He made 13 starts for Minnesota, where his flyball approach left him susceptible to ill-timed homers and a 4.90 ERA. However, a 19.5 percent K-BB% and solid Stuff+ grades has me more excited for Festa than the surface stats would suggest.

His secondary pitches were very effective, particularly his changeup, which had a .209 xBA and a 39.4 percent whiff rate. His delivery hides the ball well, and his "Slim Reaper" nickname is just perfect:

The Minnesota rotation is currently Pablo Lopez, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober, Simeon Woods Richardson and Chris Paddack. I do like the first three, but the final two members of that rotation shouldn't be roadblocks to Festa. He has more talent than either and can miss bats, while those two names must lean more heavily on the defense to be successful. 

Tanner Bell and Jeff Zimmerman found in their research for their book "The Process" that breakout pitchers exhibit three traits:

• K/9 of at least 8.0
• Fastball velocity of least 93 mph
• One above-average secondary pitch (used more than 15 percent of the time)

Festa exhibits all three of these. His 10.8 K/9 blows the first requirement away, his 94.7 mph average fastball velocity meets the second requirement, and he throws both his slider (31.8 percent) and changeup (28.0 percent) well above the final requirement. More importantly, Festa uses all three pitches in putaway situations to keep hitters guessing. The next step for Festa is to avoid predictable fastball counts, because his fastball was rather hittable last season at a .304 clip (.272 xBA) while his secondaries served him well. If you liked Bailey Ober's growth from 2022 to 2023, Festa could follow a similar path here in 2025.