Collette Calls: Managerial Intent

Last week, we took a look at the importance of spring stolen base attempts and how well the data correlates to the final regular season stolen base rates. This week, I'd like to review the other important part of the stolen base equation: managerial intent. Stolen bases are equal part skills and intent, and managers have more impact on intent than any YOLO attitude a baserunner may have.

A good way to show the impact of managerial intent is to look at two specific players from 2024, as they began the year with one team and finished it with another. The Washington Nationals, under Davey Martinez, loved to run and led all teams with 223 stolen base attempts last season, which worked out to an average of 1.83 attempts per contest. Two players on that team, Lane Thomas and Jesse Winker, enjoyed their time under Martinez as surprising stolen base sources last season. We can see exactly how much they enjoyed that by using the baserunning metrics report from Baseball-Reference:

Stolen base opportunities (SB OPPS) are defined as any time a baserunner is on first or second base and the next base is unoccupied. Martinez had two very distinct players here by sprint speed yet had both players in motion above the league average rate in these situations (7 percent). Now, look at what happened to both players once they were dealt away from the Nationals: 

Thomas ran barely more than a third as often once Stephen Vogt and his managerial team were dictating things, while Winker attempted as many steals as you the readers did last season once he joined the Mets under Carlos Mendoza.

We have four "new" managers joining the league this year, so to get a feel for how that quartet may impact steals in 2025, we should look back at the octet of new managers from 2024 and how they changed things for their respective clubs.

The Astros attempted steals six percent of the time when the opportunity was there under Dusty Baker in 2023 but that fell to 5.1 percent last year under first year manager Espada. The 2025 roster retains their stolen base team leader in Jose Altuve, but only he and Jeremy Pena had 20 or more steals last season and Jake Meyers is the only other player on the roster with more than 10 steals last season. The additions of the glacial Isaac Paredes and Christian Walker aren't likely to help this situation change any time soon. 

Schildt was not a big running manager in St. Louis when we last saw him, so this change should not have come as much of a surprise. The 2021 Cardinals attempted steals in 4.4 percent of their opportunities, which was right at the league average that particular season. Schildt returns in 2025 to a Padres team which lost its stolen base leader in Ha-Seong Kim but has four returning players with 10-plus steals last season. Their offseason additions are unlikely to change this situation.

The Mets had just one player with 20-plus steals, and that was their MVP candidate Francisco Lindor. Next up is Harrison Bader with 17 steals, but he's now with Minnesota. The aging Starling Marte, Brandon Nimmo and Tyrone Taylor round out the double-digit steals totals from 2024. The offseason addition of Juan Soto is unlikely to change anything, but Jose Siri could impact things if he manages to get on base.

This one is only disappointing because Counsell was one of the more aggressive managers in the running game with Milwaukee but had a more conservative approach, relative to his history, once he traveled down I-94 to Chicago. The good news is that all of his top stolen base players are back and he has a full season of Pete Crow-Armstrong's speed to leverage and now has Kyle Tucker to use as well. This situation should improve in 2025 because we know that Counsell likes to run when he has the tools to leverage.

This was a tough one to predict because Vogt had zero previous managerial experience. The only thing we had to go on was that he did spend time playing for Kevin Cash and Craig Counsell in his career, so the influence of the running game was there. Vogt did not let the surprising change in how Progressive Field played slow down the running game. The Guardians lost Andres Gimenez in the offseason and have not added much speed this offseason, so this situation could backslide in year two due more to a change in talent than a shift in the manager's desire to run.

How sad is it that 2024 was actually an improvement over 2023 despite the team running at a below-average rate? That is how infrequently the Giants ran under Gabe Kapler. Tyler Fitzgerald led the club with 17 steals and Matt Chapman surprised us all with 15 steals, but nobody else on the roster had more than six steals. The roster additions of this offseason are unlikely to change anything here so I do not see this trend continuing. 

The Brewers had nine different players with double-digit steals last season under a first-year skipper, and William Contreras fell one short of giving Milwaukee 10 players with at least 10 steals. The loss of Willy Adames and the potential addition of Caleb Durbin to the lineup could give this franchise a Pat's Scat's era like the Harvey's Wallbangers group of yesteryear. The team has the tools to once again challenge for the overall league lead in steals. As it was, they successfully stole 217 bases last season, with only the Nationals (223) besting them.

Phil Nevin did not put the Angels in motion very often, but Washington had no reservations doing so, even if his top trio of runners — Zach Neto, Luis Rengifo, and Jo Adell — were thrown out in 29 percent of their attempts. The talent has not really changed on this roster, so we should expect to see the Angels run more than the league average under Washington but we are unlikely to see another year of substantial growth.

Now, we have four managers joining the fold in 2025, coming from different backgrounds when it comes to the running game:

McCullough and Venable are following the trail blazed by Vogt last year, as neither has held the permanent managerial role at any level. McCullough managed clubs in the Toronto organization from 2007 to 2014 and was most recently the first base coach for the Dodgers in 2024. Venable has never managed any club but did manage one game for the Red Sox in 2021 when Alex Cora was in Puerto Rico to attend the high school graduation of one of his children. Both managers are taking the helm of arguably the two worst teams in the league for 2025 and have most recently worked with organizations who ran less often than the league average. 

Wilson comes into a unique situation because we have data for him as an interim manager last season after Scott Servais left. We immediately saw a more aggressive running game from the Mariners once Wilson took over on August 22nd. Will Dylan Moore and Victor Robles repeat their 30+ steal seasons? Maybe, but a full season of Randy Arozarena in Seattle or a full season of health from Julio Rodriguez could see a bump. At a deeper level, Ryan Bliss could be fun if he can reach base and make the Seattle roster and in the deepest of leagues, Miles Mastrobuoni is 53-for-57 in his stolen base attempts over the past three seasons while bouncing between Triple-A and the big leagues for three different organizations.

Finally, we have the known known in Francona, who has a long-established track record of running with Cleveland. It's worth noting that the 2023 rate referenced in the above table was impacted by Francona missing chunks of the season due to health issues. The last full season Francona managed was the 2022 season, and Cleveland attempted steals in 6.1 percent of their opportunities (above the league-average rate of 5.0 percent) while their per-game attempt rate was 0.90. The concern some fantasy managers may have is how much a new manager may impact the steals of Elly De La Cruz, Spencer Steer or Jake Fraley, since David Bell let them run pretty much at will last season. The data tells us that Francona isn't afraid to leverage the running game when he has the tools at his disposal, so we should not worry about too much of an impact on steals in Cincinnati, but it is likely wiser to project De La Cruz closer to 50-ish steals while Steer should be closer to 20.