This article is part of our Collette Calls series.
The second "half" of the season begins this weekend, though in fact teams have anywhere from 63 to 67 remaining games on their schedule. This is not news to the average fantasy player, because the All-Star Break hasn't come at the midpoint of the schedule in any recent season, but this one feels later than most given all teams have fewer than 68 remaining games.
However, not all games are equal when it comes to scheduling. This installment is to help you better understand what teams and players may have some hidden advantages in their strength of schedule in the coming weeks as you either position your team for the September playoffs in head-to-head formats or for the finish line in standard leagues.
The table below comes from the Tankathon website, which looks at a team's remaining strength of schedule and calculates the combined winning percentage of their remaining opponents. The data is sorted in descending order by games remaining:
SOS RANK | TEAM | SOS | GAMES LEFT |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | Cleveland | 0.523 | 67 |
10 | Boston | 0.508 | 67 |
21 | NY Mets | 0.493 | 67 |
24 | Atlanta | 0.492 | 67 |
1 | Tampa Bay | 0.528 | 66 |
3 | Miami | 0.518 | 66 |
4 | Pittsburgh | 0.515 | 66 |
5 | St. Louis | 0.512 | 66 |
7 | Minnesota | 0.511 | 66 |
8 | Philadelphia | 0.509 | 66 |
9 | Toronto | 0.509 | 66 |
16 | Houston | 0.501 | 66 |
23 | Baltimore | 0.492 | 66 |
27 | Texas | 0.486 | 66 |
30 | LA Angels | 0.469 | 66 |
6 | Colorado | 0.511 | 65 |
11 | Arizona | 0.506 | 65 |
12 | Washington | 0.506 | 65 |
13 | Kansas City | 0.505 | 65 |
15 | Cincinnati | 0.502 |
The second "half" of the season begins this weekend, though in fact teams have anywhere from 63 to 67 remaining games on their schedule. This is not news to the average fantasy player, because the All-Star Break hasn't come at the midpoint of the schedule in any recent season, but this one feels later than most given all teams have fewer than 68 remaining games.
However, not all games are equal when it comes to scheduling. This installment is to help you better understand what teams and players may have some hidden advantages in their strength of schedule in the coming weeks as you either position your team for the September playoffs in head-to-head formats or for the finish line in standard leagues.
The table below comes from the Tankathon website, which looks at a team's remaining strength of schedule and calculates the combined winning percentage of their remaining opponents. The data is sorted in descending order by games remaining:
SOS RANK | TEAM | SOS | GAMES LEFT |
|---|---|---|---|
2 | Cleveland | 0.523 | 67 |
10 | Boston | 0.508 | 67 |
21 | NY Mets | 0.493 | 67 |
24 | Atlanta | 0.492 | 67 |
1 | Tampa Bay | 0.528 | 66 |
3 | Miami | 0.518 | 66 |
4 | Pittsburgh | 0.515 | 66 |
5 | St. Louis | 0.512 | 66 |
7 | Minnesota | 0.511 | 66 |
8 | Philadelphia | 0.509 | 66 |
9 | Toronto | 0.509 | 66 |
16 | Houston | 0.501 | 66 |
23 | Baltimore | 0.492 | 66 |
27 | Texas | 0.486 | 66 |
30 | LA Angels | 0.469 | 66 |
6 | Colorado | 0.511 | 65 |
11 | Arizona | 0.506 | 65 |
12 | Washington | 0.506 | 65 |
13 | Kansas City | 0.505 | 65 |
15 | Cincinnati | 0.502 | 65 |
17 | Milwaukee | 0.501 | 65 |
18 | LA Dodgers | 0.500 | 65 |
22 | Detroit | 0.492 | 65 |
29 | San Francisco | 0.479 | 65 |
14 | CHI White Sox | 0.503 | 64 |
19 | NY Yankees | 0.493 | 64 |
20 | CHI Cubs | 0.493 | 64 |
26 | Seattle | 0.486 | 64 |
28 | Oakland | 0.481 | 64 |
25 | San Diego | 0.487 | 63 |
This may seem inconsequential on the surface, but four games could mean as many as 15 or 20 plate appearances more for some batters, and an extra start or multiple save chances for a pitcher. The other factor in play is some of the bad teams in the league could get decidedly worse in the coming days and weeks as they sell off players to once again play for next year. Below are some notable players either in their final year or with one year remaining on their contract on teams which are very likely to be actively selling (all teams with a single-digit percentage of making the postseason per FanGraphs):
Reds (8.4%):
- UFAs after this season: Frankie Montas (if mutual option exercised), Lucas Sims
- UFAs after next season: Nick Martinez, Brent Suter
Tigers (7.0%):
- UFAs after this season: Carson Kelly, Gio Urshela, Mark Canha, Jack Flaherty
- UFAs after next season: Kenta Maeda, Andrew Chafin, Shelby Miller
Blue Jays (1.8%):
- UFAs after this season: Danny Jansen, Justin Turner, Yusei Kikuchi, Trevor Richards
- UFAs after next season: Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Bo Bichette, Isiah Kiner-Falefa, Chris Bassitt
Nationals (0.3%):
- UFAs after this season: Joey Gallo, Jesse Winker, Dylan Floro, Jacob Barnes
- UFAs after next season: Lane Thomas, Kyle Finnegan, Tanner Rainey
Angels (0.2%):
- UFAs after this season: Brandon Drury, Kevin Pillar, Matt Moore, Carlos Estevez
- UFAs after next season: Luis Rengifo, Tyler Anderson, Griffin Canning
White Sox (0.0%):
- UFAs after this season: Paul DeJong, Tommy Pham, Mike Clevinger, Yoan Moncada (after $5M buyout), Eloy Jimenez (after $6M buyout)
Athletics (0.0%):
- UFAs after this season: No long-term deals on roster. Ross Stripling, Alex Wood, and Paul Blackburn are all making money, but everyone else is in controlling years. Oakland's two most marketable players, Brent Rooker and Mason Miller, make a combined $1.49M.
Rockies (0.0%):
- UFAs after this season: Elias Diaz, Charlie Blackmon, Jalen Beeks
- UFAs after next season: Brendan Rodgers, German Marquez, Austin Gomber, Cal Quantrill
Marlins (0.0%):
- UFAs after this season: Josh Bell, Tanner Scott
Not all of these names will be moved, but talent will be flowing from the have nots to the haves, making strong teams stronger and weak teams weaker. The above table shows some of the sweet spots for teams whose players could have favorable conditions moving forward, starting with Atlanta.
Atlanta's offense has come back to life after a rough stretch earlier this season, and their remaining strength of schedule is the second easiest among all teams with at least a 10 percent chance of making the postseason. Atlanta has but 26 of its remaining 67 games against teams over .500 and has seven more matchups against Miami, six against Colorado and five against the Nationals to look forward to. Atlanta batters and pitchers are well-positioned for some favorable matchups scattered around their remaining 17 contests against the Phillies, Dodgers and Brewers.
Baltimore has 66 games remaining and the same strength of schedule as Atlanta, with series to be played against the White Sox, Marlins, Rockies, Nationals and Rangers along with seven more contests against the Blue Jays. Meanwhile, the seven contests they still have against the Red Sox and a four-game series against the Guardians will strongly influence their efforts to repeat as division champs and fend off the Yankees.
New York has two fewer games, but a nearly identical easy schedule with series remaining against the White Sox, Rockies, Athletics, Angels, Nationals and Blue Jays. Their toughest remaining opponent is their sworn enemy, as they have two more series to play against the Red Sox, who are the only team above .500 on their schedule that the Yankees have more than three game against the rest of the way.
Do not sleep on Houston, as the Astros may have two series left against Boston but also have two series against the Athletics and Angels along with a series apiece against the White Sox, Rangers and Reds as Houston attempts to catch Seattle in the AL West. Seattle has an easier schedule, with two series against the Athletics, Angels, Rangers and Tigers along with a single series against the White Sox and Giants.
Conversely, Cleveland is one of the teams with the most games remaining, but they also have the second-toughest schedule, with series against the Phillies, Orioles, Yankees, Dodgers, Brewers along with eight games against the Twins still to play. The only repeat sub-.500 team they have to play is the Tigers. Tampa Bay has the toughest remaining schedule (just as their starting pitching has begun to click) with series against the Phillies, Guardians, Yankees, Dodgers and Twins left to play along with two more series against Baltimore. A four-game set against the Athletics and two more series against the Blue Jays somewhat offset that rough stretch, but I hope you enjoyed that recent run of pitching from Taj Bradley, as the schedule is brutal the rest of the way.
Your ability to acquire players in many leagues is likely limited at this time with league trade deadlines or diminishing FAAB budgets from early spending, but you can still influence the performance of your roster by looking ahead to the schedule players on your roster have forthcoming.
