DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

DraftKings MLB: Weekend Value Plays

This article is part of our DraftKings MLB series.

All player prices are as of Friday, May 15

Pitchers

Jake Odorizzi, TB (Fri. at MIN), $7900– The Minnesota offense has improved since the beginning of the season, but the Twins still rank just 24th in strikeout rate (21.4 percent), 24th in walk rate (6.9 percent) and 20th in wRC+ (92). Those numbers actually paint a favorable picture, as the Twins have been worse than that in every category against right-handed pitching, with much better numbers against southpaws. While Odorizzi hasn't put up huge strikeout numbers thus far this season, his 2.09 ERA, 2.34 FIP and 39:8 K:BB ratio through 47.1 innings are all still encouraging. And, we know that he possesses a high ceiling every time he takes the mound, after the right-hander posted an excellent strikeout rate (24.2 percent) last season. Given the combination of price and matchup, Odorizzi is almost a no-brainer for Friday night.

Jacob deGrom, NYM (Sat. vs. MIL) – The Brewers have been especially bad against lefties this season, but they still rank just 26th in strikeout rate (22.5 percent), 19th in walk rate (7.3 percent) and 24th in wRC+ (82) against right-handers. While deGrom is off to a disappointing start, his peripheral numbers and velocity don't hint at any decline in skill. This is the perfect spot to use the talented 26-year-old, as he draws a home matchup at Citi Field against a weak Milwaukee lineup that doesn't have the personnel to go lefty-heavy. DeGrom has been much better against right-handers

All player prices are as of Friday, May 15

Pitchers

Jake Odorizzi, TB (Fri. at MIN), $7900– The Minnesota offense has improved since the beginning of the season, but the Twins still rank just 24th in strikeout rate (21.4 percent), 24th in walk rate (6.9 percent) and 20th in wRC+ (92). Those numbers actually paint a favorable picture, as the Twins have been worse than that in every category against right-handed pitching, with much better numbers against southpaws. While Odorizzi hasn't put up huge strikeout numbers thus far this season, his 2.09 ERA, 2.34 FIP and 39:8 K:BB ratio through 47.1 innings are all still encouraging. And, we know that he possesses a high ceiling every time he takes the mound, after the right-hander posted an excellent strikeout rate (24.2 percent) last season. Given the combination of price and matchup, Odorizzi is almost a no-brainer for Friday night.

Jacob deGrom, NYM (Sat. vs. MIL) – The Brewers have been especially bad against lefties this season, but they still rank just 26th in strikeout rate (22.5 percent), 19th in walk rate (7.3 percent) and 24th in wRC+ (82) against right-handers. While deGrom is off to a disappointing start, his peripheral numbers and velocity don't hint at any decline in skill. This is the perfect spot to use the talented 26-year-old, as he draws a home matchup at Citi Field against a weak Milwaukee lineup that doesn't have the personnel to go lefty-heavy. DeGrom has been much better against right-handers through the first 182 innings of his career, holding them to a pathetic .258 wOBA. He should also come at a reasonable price, after costing just $9100, $8500 and most recently $8100 in his last three starts.

Carlos Carrasco, CLE (Sun. at TEX) – While the Ballpark in Arlington has historically been a nightmare for pitchers, Carrasco gets to face a Texas lineup that's mediocre at best. More important than the matchup is Carrasco's talent, with the right-hander boasting a 42:8 K:BB ratio through 35.1 innings, after dominating at the end of last season. I'm not at all worried about his 4.84 ERA, as it comes with a 2.63 FIP and 2.47 xFIP, on the strength of those fantastic strikeout and walk numbers. Carrasco's strand rate (66.2 percent) and opponents' BABIP (.371) are the main culprits for his early struggles. He's still missing plenty of bats, and his ground-ball rate (51 percent) and HR/9 (0.76) are still right where you'd expect.

Other options:Clayton Kershaw, LAD (Fri. vs. COL), $11,900; Clay Buchholz, BOS (Fri. at SEA), $6800; Danny Salazar, CLE (Sat. at TEX); Max Scherzer, WAS (Sat. at SD); Chris Archer, TB (Sun. at MIN); Ubaldo Jimenez, BAL (Sun. vs. LAA); Jake Arrieta, CHC (Sun. vs. PIT)

Batters

C A.J. Pierzynski, ATL (at MIA), $3500 – Pierzynski will be playing at a tough park for batters, but he'll get three straight matchups against manageable right-handed pitchers, with the Braves facing David Phelps, Mat Latos and Tom Koehler. Even if we all agree that Pierzynski's red-hot start isn't going to stand the test of time, the 38-year-old catcher should still be a nice DFS option all weekend. He isn't batting cleanup anymore, but the No. 5 or 6 hole is pretty darn good in comparison to where most catchers hit.

1B/OF Logan Morrison, SEA (vs. BOS), $3900 – I'm a big fan of the left-handed Seattle bats this weekend, even with the Mariners facing the more competent part of Boston's terrible rotation. The M's get three straight matchups with right-handed pitchers, including a Sunday contest against the immensely hittable Steven Wright. Meanwhile, Morrison has been fantastic over the last two weeks, pushing his slash line to .237/.313/.432, despite carrying a .227 BABIP. He's always been an above-average hitter when healthy, and he's doing a better job than usual of making contact this season.

2B Devon Travis, TOR (at HOU), $3300 – Travis has cooled off over the last few weeks, allowing his price to drop back to the range that made him an excellent option for most of April. While probably not the immediate superstar we saw in April, he's still the leadoff batter in an elite lineup, and still has highly encouraging three-true-outcome numbers. In addition to his seven home runs, Travis has a very respectable strikeout rate (16.8 percent) and walk rate (8.0 percent), with a couple of stolen bases to boot. At this price, with some solid matchups coming in Houston, he's one of the better values at any position.

3B Kyle Seager, SEA (vs. BOS), $3600 – Seager is off to a moderately disappointing start this season, but it's factored into his favorable price, and he's been somewhat better over the past couple weeks. Given his age (27) and solid peripheral numbers, there's no real reason to expect a decline. Of course, he's never been much of a threat against southpaws, but the Mariners aren't slated to face any this weekend. I also like the stacking potential here, with Robinson Cano ($3900), Brad Miller ($3200) and Logan Morrison ($3900) looking like very attractive options. Seth Smith ($3600) and Nelson Cruz ($5200) are also in play.

SS Jimmy Rollins, LAD (vs. COL), $3500 – While the shortstop position doesn't look too promising this weekend, Rollins should be an oasis in a desert full of strikeouts and groundouts. As disappointing as he's been thus far, I'm still perfectly willing to take a chance on the No. 2 hitter in one of baseball's better lineups, with the Rockies and their awful rotation in town. The Dodgers should be a popular stacking choice for each of the next three days, and while I'd typically prefer to go with something a bit more under the radar, most of the LA batters carry price tags that will make them hard to pass up. Hopefully, Rollins won't be too popular of a selection due to his early-season slump.

OF J.D. Martinez, DET (at STL), $3900 – Any time you can get this kind of power at this price in a decent matchup, you're looking at a top-notch GPP option. Further adding to the appeal, Martinez is no longer slumping, with a home run, four singles and a walk over his last three games. I may look in another direction for Sunday's matchup with Lance Lynn, but Martinez is one of the best plays at any position for Friday against Carlos Martinez and Saturday against Tyler Lyons.

OF Jake Marisnick, HOU (vs. TOR), $3000 – Marisnick's strikeout and walk numbers have never been encouraging, but he still brings a nice combination of power and speed to the table. He already has nine stolen bases through 32 games, in addition to three home runs, two triples and five doubles. Best of all, he's been hitting out of the leadoff hole recently, and the Astros get to face a weak Toronto pitching staff this weekend. For just $3000, this almost feels like stealing, which is something Marisnick will likely do this weekend.

Other options:C Jason Castro, HOU (vs. TOR), $3400; 1B Paul Goldschmidt, AZ (at PHI), $5300; 2B Robinson Cano, SEA (vs. BOS), $3900; 3B Josh Donaldson, TOR (at HOU), $4500; SS/OF Hanley Ramirez, BOS (at SEA), $4200; OF Steven Souza, TB (at MIN), $4200; OF Kevin Kiermaier, TB (at MIN), $3500; OF Andre Ethier, LAD (vs. COL), $3400

Lineup Stacks

Friday

Orioles vs. LAA's Jered Weaver
Athletics vs. CHW's Carlos Rodon
Giants at CIN's Jason Marquis
Dodgers vs. COL's Eddie Butler
Diamondbacks at PHI's Chad Billingsley
Cubs vs. PIT's Jeff Locke
Indians at TEX's Wandy Rodriguez

Saturday

Dodgers vs. COL's Jorge De La Rosa
Blue Jays at HOU's Scott Feldman
Rays at MIN's Trevor May
Diamondbacks at PHI's Jerome Williams
Tigers at STL's Tyler Lyons
Indians at TEX's Colby Lewis

Sunday

Mariners vs. BOS's Steven Wright
Dodgers vs. COL's Kyle Kendrick
Diamondbacks at PHI's Sean O'Sullivan
Indians at TEX's Nick Martinez
Astros vs. TOR's Mark Buehrle

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ABOUT THE AUTHOR
Jerry Donabedian
Jerry was a 2018 finalist for the FSWA's Player Notes Writer of the Year and DFS Writer of the Year awards. A Baltimore native, Jerry roots for the Ravens and watches "The Wire" in his spare time.
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