Farm Futures: Carolina League Roundup

Last week I combined the hitters and the pitchers of the California League into one article because there wasn't enough league-wide talent to justify spending two articles on the league. This week, I'll be analyzing the notable prospects in the Carolina League and once again the hitters and pitchers will be grouped together, but this time it will be because there are only eight teams in the league -- not because the league is lacking for talent. On the contrary, some of the hottest names in minor league baseball call the Carolina League home. There are also a handful of unranked sleepers who should be monitored in deeper dynasty leagues. Full disclosure: the main reason I am combining hitters and pitchers is because I really wanted to write about Michael Kopech and there weren't enough other pitchers in the league worth writing about to devote one article to Carolina League pitchers. As always, prospects are listed in order of their value in dynasty leagues.

Victor Robles, OF, Potomac (Nationals)
Age: 19
Rank: 10
Stats: .233/.346/.344, two HR, four 2B, 11-for-14 on SB attempts, 17:8 K:BB in 90 AB.

Rafael Devers, 3B, Salem (Red Sox)
Age: 19
Rank: 11
Stats: .278/.335/.449, 11 HR, seven 3B, 27 2B, 13-for-17 on SB attempts, 83:37 K:BB in 432 AB.

Reasonable minds could disagree on whether Robles or Devers is the better dynasty league prospect in the Carolina League. Devers is seven months older but also has a full season at High-A under his belt, while Robles has only played 23 games at this level. Furthermore, evaluating their ability to hit won't help either player create separation, as they both check in with 70-grade hit tools.

The only places to draw a distinction is their respective positions and carrying tools. Robles plays a Gold Glove-caliber center field and offers plus speed while Devers plays third base and offers plus power. Third base is evolving into a fairly deep position in fantasy and Devers is far from a lock to stick there. Additionally, despite the fact Devers has 13 steals this season, he won't be a contributor in that department when he reaches the big leagues, while Robles figures to offer 15-20 homers in the majors. It's Robles' five-category potential and, to a lesser extent, his positional certainty (Devers could end up being a DH), that gives him the nod.

Another interesting comparison is Robles versus Manuel Margot. In the updated top 200, I have Margot ranked one spot ahead of Robles as Margot could reach the majors in September, while Robles likely won't debut until at least 2018. Robles probably has a slightly higher ceiling long term, but they are very similar players and the gap in ETA gives Margot the advantage in my humble opinion.

Robles and Devers are the kinds of blue chip prospects rebuilding teams need to be acquiring, if not in-season then during the offseason, as both could end up being top 50 fantasy contributors by the end of the decade and their ETAs are far enough away that a contending team would need to consider dealing them if the offer was right. Look for both players to enter next season on the fringe of the top five, following the graduations of David Dahl, Alex Bregman, Andrew Benintendi and Trea Turner.

Michael Kopech, RHP, Salem (Red Sox)
Age: 20
Rank: 15
Stats: 1.41 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, 60:22 K:BB in 38.1 IP.

Kopech touched 105 mph (as a starter!) on several radar guns in a start back on July 13, which is when his prospect stock really started to explode. However he has been basically unhittable all season long, to the point that his ceiling is creeping into Lucas Giolito/Alex Reyes territory. Carolina League hitters are hitting .157 against him, which comes as no surprise given his absurd repertoire. In addition to the 80-grade cheese he also offers a plus slider, meaning his changeup only needs to be average for him to profile comfortably as a No. 2 starter in short order, assuming he can hold up to a starter's workload. It would not be surprising to see Kopech assigned to the Arizona Fall League in order to make up for the time he lost earlier this season due to injury. Ideally he would be able to log around 80 innings between the minors and the AFL this year, which would allow him to approach 120 frames next season. He should start 2017 at Double-A and could reasonably reach the majors, perhaps in a relief role, as early as June or July. In 2018, however, the training wheels should come off and he could log 170 innings in the big leagues.

Bobby Bradley, 1B, Lynchburg (Indians)
Age: 20
Rank: 41
Stats: .250/.360/.490, 25 HR, one 3B, 22 2B, 147:67 K:BB in 412 AB.

A long-time favorite in these parts, Bradley timed his placement in this article perfectly by homering in three straight games heading into Tuesday. Even more surprising however is the fact he has only struck out three times over his last five games. It's not as if he has significantly figured something out in that department, as he is still striking out at a 30.1 percent clip on the season, but he has narrowly improved over last year's 31.8 percent mark while at Low-A. The fact is, after Joey Gallo, Bradley may have the most in-game power in all the minor leagues, so even if there's a good chance he never hits enough to be more than Chris Carter from the left side, the fact that he could be much more than that warrants him being ranked in the top 50. If Carter-esque production is a realistic floor, then Edwin Encarnacion-esque production is a realistic ceiling.

Francisco Mejia, C, Lynchburg (Indians)
Age: 20
Rank: 51
Stats: .339/.367/.491, two HR, one 3B, nine 2B, 15:6 K:BB in 112 AB.

Far from a stealth catching prospect these days thanks to a 50-game hit streak that came to an end Sunday, Mejia is clearly a top three prospect at the position along with Gary Sanchez and Jorge Alfaro. Unlike Sanchez and to a greater extent Alfaro, Mejia is more hit tool than power. In fact, if everything breaks right, his production could look a lot like that of the player he was almost traded for -- Jonathan Lucroy. Like Lucroy, Mejia is excellent at making solid contact, striking out at below an 18 percent clip at every stop in the minors. This gives him a solid offensive floor relative to other high-end catching prospects, which makes up for the lack of big-time power.

Zack Collins, C, Winston-Salem (White Sox)
Age: 21
Rank: 92
Stats: .260/.374/.429, three HR, four 2B, 24:14 K:BB in 77 AB.

The White Sox selected Collins with the No. 10 pick in this year's draft and the early returns are quite impressive. At 21 years old, he is age appropriate for High-A, but considering he only has 24 games under his belt as a pro it's still quite telling that he has shown his in-game power while also displaying an excellent approach against Carolina League pitching. The contact issues (26.4 percent K-rate) are worth tracking, but it would not be surprising if he made major strides in that department as he gets more accustomed to pro ball. The White Sox have kept Collins behind the plate so even though he carries the tag of being a bat-first catcher, the team clearly thinks he has enough defensive chops to stick at the position long term.

Jomar Reyes, 3B, Frederick (Orioles)
Age: 19
Rank: 122
Stats: .227/.269/.342, nine HR, two 3B, 14 2B, 90:21 K:BB in 392 AB.

Reyes is the youngest player in the Carolina League, so much of his offensive struggles this year can be excused. If he had performed better this season he could have solidified his place as a top 50 prospect for dynasty leagues, but instead his owners will have to just be a little patient. There is still big-time offensive potential here, and he makes enough contact (21.4 percent K-rate) at a young age to think he'll be able to make the necessary adjustments. Even if he had to repeat the level he would still be one of the younger players in the league next year, and if he moves up to Double-A he would likely be the youngest position player in the Eastern League in 2017. Now is a perfect time to buy low on Reyes in deeper dynasty formats.

Travis Demeritte, 2B, Carolina (Braves)
Age: 21
Rank: 152
Stats: .203/.382/.441, two HR, three 3B, two 2B, 3-for-4 on SB attempts, 25:17 K:BB in 59 AB.

Demeritte wasted no time showcasing his talents and his flaws after the Braves acquired him for Dario Alvarez and Lucas Harrell. Even if he never makes enough contact to serve as an everyday second baseman, the Braves were right to do that deal. Demeritte is almost 22 years old so the fact that he is still striking out at a 33 percent clip at High-A is a big red flag. However, he offers plus raw power and above average speed at second base, and that is a rare skill set. Odds are he will never make enough contact to play every day but his upside still makes him worth rostering in deeper dynasty leagues.

Yu-Cheng Chang, SS, Lynchburg (Indians)
Age: 20
Rank: 183
Stats: .271/.345/.484, 12 HR, eight 3B, 28 2B, 11-for-14 on SB attempts, 95:43 K:BB in 376 AB.

Chang, who was also almost traded to the Brewers in the trade that Lucroy blocked, was having a fabulous season with Lynchburg after struggling mightily to produce at Low-A last year (.655 OPS). He recently landed on the minor league DL with a right wrist strain that could essentially end his season. However, he'll head to Double-A next year as a 21-year-old shortstop who just posted a .829 OPS at High-A. The list of current under-21 shortstops whose numbers at High-A or Double-A compare favorably with Chang's is very small. Alex Bregman, Trea Turner, J.P. Crawford, Willy Adames, Amed Rosario and Richard Urena are the only shortstops whose production relative to age and level are better than what Chang did this year. He is not quite in that class of prospect, but he has established himself as a player worth owning in leagues where 200 prospects are rostered.

Trevor Clifton, RHP, Myrtle Beach (Cubs)
Age: 21
Rank: 198
Stats: 2.96 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 106:38 K:BB in 100.1 IP.

Clifton is now comfortably a top 10 prospect in the Cubs' system after the team dealt away Gleyber Torres, Dan Vogelbach and Billy McKinney at the deadline. He would have been ranked that high far sooner in many other systems in baseball, thanks to a quality four-pitch mix and impressive numbers this year for the Pelicans. Four Cubs starters are in the top 20 in baseball for wins this season, which illustrates the fantasy potential that comes with pitching on the North Side. Clifton is on track to be ready to take on a big league starter's workload in a couple years and he could reach the majors before any of the other notable starting pitching prospects in the system.

Samir Duenez, 1B, Wilmington (Royals)
Age: 20
Stats: .314/.376/.500, seven HR, two 3B, 11 2B, 9-for-11 on SB attempts, 32:18 K:BB in 194 AB.

Duenez turned some heads as a 17-year-old in rookie ball back in 2014, but he hasn't been heard from in a major way since then. It's time to start paying attention to the Venezuelan first baseman again, as he not only makes contact at an excellent clip (15.2 percent K-rate) but his plus bat speed is starting to translate into some in-game pop after he hit just two homers as a professional prior to this season. He could head to Double-A next year as a 20-year-old who won't turn 21 until June 11 and if he continues on this pace at the plate, his name will be widely known by prospect hounds by his next birthday. Rarely do owners in deep dynasty leagues get a chance to grab a guy off the waiver wire with Duenez's combination of offensive skill and proximity to the big leagues, and this is one of those rare occasions.

Max Schrock, 2B, Potomac (Nationals)
Age: 21
Stats: .328/.360/.451, five HR, 10 2B, 7-for-9 on SB attempts, 21:8 K:BB in 204 AB.

Schrock doesn't come with much pedigree, as the Nationals nabbed him in the 13th round of last year's draft, but he has yet to show a real weakness through 160 career games in the minor leagues. His hit tool and approach are excellent and he also offers a little bit of power and speed. The Nationals' system falls off in a hurry after Erick Fedde, and Schrock has as good of an argument as anyone to be the next guy on that list. Second basemen without plus speed or power don't typically need to be rostered until they are fairly close to the majors, but Schrock is certainly a player to keep an eye on.

OTHERS OF NOTE

Nick Longhi, 1B, Salem (Red Sox)
Age: 21
Stats: .284/.353/.393, two HR, three 3B, 32 2B, 89:44 K:BB in 405 AB.

Anthony Santander, OF, Lynchburg (Indians)
Age: 21
Stats: .281/.361/.475, 17 HR, 32 2B, 9-for-13 on SB attempts, 104:46 K:BB in 427 AB.

Braxton Davidson, OF, Carolina (Braves)
Age: 20
Stats: .224/.337/.372, 10 HR, two 3B, 23 2B, 162:61 K:BB in 384 AB.

Donnie Dewees, OF, Myrtle Beach (Cubs)
Age: 22
Stats: .304/.364/.456, two HR, one 3B, four 2B, 9-for-9 on SB attempts, 18:7 K:BB in 79 AB.

Joseph Monge, OF, Salem (Red Sox)
Age: 21
Stats: .292/.349/.424, three HR, four 3B, 17 2B, 18-for-24 on SB attempts, 55:18 K:BB in 257 AB.

Charcer Burks, OF, Myrtle Beach (Cubs)
Age: 21
Stats: .245/.360/.405, 10 HR, four 3B, 22 2B, 23-for-29 on SB attempts, 92:58 K:BB in 375 AB.

Jordan Stephens, RHP, Winston-Salem (White Sox)
Age: 23
Stats: 3.57 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 123:39 K:BB in 121 IP.

D.J. Stewart, OF, Frederick (Orioles)
Age: 22
Stats: .265/.364/.409, two HR, two 3B, nine 2B, 4-for-5 in SB attempts, 32:20 K:BB in 132 AB.

Osvaldo Abreu, SS, Potomac (Nationals)
Age: 22
Stats: .236/.319/.324, three HR, four 3B, 20 2B, 17-for-26 on SB attempts, 96:47 K:BB in 423 AB.

Trey Ball, LHP, Salem (Red Sox)
Age: 22
Stats: 3.91 ERA, 1.58 WHIP, 73:62 K:BB in 101.1 IP.

Nick Basto, 1B/OF, Winston-Salem (White Sox)
Age: 22
Stats: .312/.390/.490, 12 HR, three 3B, 20 2B, 73:42 K:BB in 349 AB.

Thaddius Lowry, RHP, Winston-Salem (White Sox)
Age: 21
Stats: 4.06 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, 90:38 K:BB in 135.1 IP.

Luis Lugo, LHP, Lynchburg (Indians)
Age: 22
Stats: 3.56 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 95:45 K:BB in 118.2 IP.

Foster Griffin, LHP, Wilmington (Royals)
Age: 21
Stats: 6.31 ERA, 1.74 WHIP, 64:40 K:BB in 77 IP.